DIRECTV likely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket

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NashGuy

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Also, they would not want a deal like that on the books when they are trying to sell or merge, TPG Capital want their investment back and are pushing the merger with Dish.

I read a story a few months ago ( I need to find it again) that said DirecTV estimated they will lose about 1 million more subs because of the loss of ST, if that 1 million pay $150 a month each, that is $1.8 billion in a year, that less then the new deal for ST by $200-700 million.
Yep, there's been a bit of revival in talk about a Dish-DTV merger even in the past few days in the wake of Dish's surprisingly bad Q1 sub losses they just reported for both satellite and Sling. On the call, Ergen was again asked about a potential merger with DTV and he reiterated his prior stance that it was "inevitable".

Dish is now down to just under 8 million sat subs.

The last figure we had for all three DTV services (sat, Stream and Uverse TV) was 15.4 million as of 6/30/21. That quarter (2Q 21) was their least-bad in terms of total sub losses in years, *only* 473k. For the preceding year, they had lost a net 2.3 million subs across the three services. We can be reasonably sure that, since then, DTV Stream has gained subs while DTV sat and Uverse TV have continued to lose them.

I guesstimate that the sat service by itself was down to maybe about 12 million at 6/30/21 and will be down another 2 million, to just 10 million, by the end of this current quarter, 6/30/22. That's a rate of 500k per quarter. So, extending forward, we get 9 million DTV sat subs as of this year end, 12/31/21.

Consistent with what you're saying, I'd also guestimate that there's an extra 1 million DTV sat subs who stick around for NFLST, either because it's been the only place where they can buy it or because DTV has been giving it to them for free as an incentive to stay and that's enough reason not to dump DTV for something else. But that excuse will likely evaporate at the end of this year. So in 2023, maybe we see a loss not of another 2 million sat subs, but 3 million.

That gets us down to 6 million on DTV at the end of '23. If Dish, meanwhile, loses just about 200k per quarter on average going forward, that gets them down to around 6.5 million sat subs at the end of '23. Now, that may be an overly optimistic figure for Dish, though. They did report a surprisingly large loss of 228k sat subs in Q1. Hard to say if that's the start of a trend or an anomaly. I suspect that the incursion of T-Mo fixed wireless internet, Verizon fixed wireless internet, and the slow-but-steady expansion of wired coax and fiber networks into rural America are already beginning to hurt Dish, whose sub base indexes significantly more rural than does DTV's.

If Dish's sat sub losses do continue to tick upward this year, I think it's going to put Charlie Ergen in a more deal-making mood when talking to TPG. And equally important, as both services are able to point out a dwindling subscriber base to the government, it increases the likelihood of regulatory approval. Each subsequent quarter of significant Dish losses (which, unlike DTV, they cannot hide and must report to the public) will increase the pressure to get serious about structuring the inevitable deal. I think an announcement late this year (after the mid-term elections) is quite likely, even probable.
 
navychop

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I still think Charlie can get those customers without buying DTV. At the very least, watch the custie count after there is no more Sunday Ticket.

Market to them. Show the superiority of the Hopper range. Wait for DTV to collapse and maybe just buy a sat or two.

A long held emotional desire to “beat” DTV is not good for business. Taking their customers and out sizing them should be satisfying enough.
 
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NashGuy

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I still think Charlie can get those customers without buying DTV. At the very least, watch the custie count after there is no more Sunday Ticket.

Market to them. Show the superiority of the Hopper range. Wait for DTV to collapse and maybe just buy a sat or two.

A long held emotional desire to “beat” DTV is not good for business. Taking their customers and out sizing them should be satisfying enough.

I think Ergen is a shrewd enough businessman that his belief that the merger is inevitable isn't based primarily in emotion but rather a cold-eyed assessment of financial facts.

Take, for instance, the fact that Dish's sat fleet will exhaust itself before DTV's. It simply no longer makes any financial sense to pay to build and launch even one more DBS sat. Secondly, you want Dish to steal away those DTV customers. To do this, they must keep their pricing lower or otherwise somehow incentivize folks to overcome inertia and switch. And then Dish must shell out hundreds of dollars to install their service in all those homes. Why bleed out all that cash when they can just join forces with DTV?

The image I have in mind are two guys in a knife fight. Both are cut and bleeding. Rather than continuing to take swings at each other to see who will bleed out first and who will out-survive the other to "win" the fight, isn't the more sensible thing for both of them to just call a truce?

Yes, it's true that the bleeding has been worse in recent years at DTV than at Dish, although both have bled a lot. But keep in mind that Dish has over-indexed toward rural subs (who in the past haven't had any pay TV choices other than DBS) as well as more budget-conscious subs who can live without all the sports. DTV, meanwhile, was more premium-priced (a liability as Americans increasingly found cable TV to be overpriced and not worth it) and over-indexed toward sports fans as well as toward metro dwellers who *do* have other pay TV choices. So we can expect that DTV has already bled off a lot of urban/suburban customers (switching to streaming and/or OTA), bled off a lot of their price sensitive customers (given that DTV's regular pricing is way more than cable, streaming and Dish), and then will finally bleed off a lot of sports fans next year after they lose NFLST. In other words, by late 2023, DTV's customer base will be somewhat solidifying around the same kind of customers that have been kinda-sorta propping up Dish these past few years: Americans who skew rural, older and can make do with a moderate sports diet.
 
navychop

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So DTV Bleeds Them Off, and is worth less. Buy the sats at a fire sale. Who else would want them?
 
Bruce

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I still think Charlie can get those customers without buying DTV. At the very least, watch the custie count after there is no more Sunday Ticket.
But why would they move to Dish, they are just as likely to go to Cable or a Live TV streamer, they could give up Live TV and get NLFST, OTA and/or streaming services.

The only ones that might switch from DirecTV to Dish are those without High Speed Internet, but that number is getting less and less every year thanks to Star Link andT-Mobile /AT&T 5G Home Internet services.
Market to them. Show the superiority of the Hopper range.
The supposed superiority of a Box is low on the list to get people to switch services, the main reason is money.

I had the X1 from Comcast, it was considered to be a great box, it did not stop me to switch to PS Vue years go, the $35 a month for Vue was the reason ( and PS Vue interface sucked when I first switched).

I now have YTTV, the interface is great, but I am still going to switch to Hulu Live because of the bundle with Disney+, ESPN+, Commercial Free Hulu and unlimited DVR for $75 a month, that will save me another $10 a month.

Also, you have pointed out one of the main reasons you stick with Dish is because you have so much stuff saved on your DVR/ External HD, do you realize that you are paying Dish over a $100 a month just to be a digital locker for a bunch of material that you will never watch or ever have the time to.

I am retired like you, I do not even have time to keep up with all the new programming, definitely do not have time for older stuff.

By the way, I have a digital locker, Movies Anywhere which takes all the movies I have purchased from Vudu, itunes, Amazon, etc and puts them all in one place to watch, costs me zero for the locker.
Wait for DTV to collapse and maybe just buy a sat or two.

A long held emotional desire to “beat” DTV is not good for business. Taking their customers and out sizing them should be satisfying enough.
I honestly do not think a buy out and/or a merger with Directv is in the cards right now, Dish’s Cash on hand is $3 Billion, total liabilities is over $33 billion.

Right now there are trying to build a Network and everything is going towards that, interest rates are also up if they are trying to do it with the Bank’s help, so that costs extra.

Also, what Bank would think it is a good idea to buy a failing Sat Service that looks to be gone in the next 5-7 years.
 
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Juan

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I still think Charlie can get those customers without buying DTV. At the very least, watch the custie count after there is no more Sunday Ticket.

Market to them. Show the superiority of the Hopper range. Wait for DTV to collapse and maybe just buy a sat or two.

A long held emotional desire to “beat” DTV is not good for business. Taking their customers and out sizing them should be satisfying enough.
Charlie can't keep his own customers..Why would he want sports enthusiasts from directv when he has no interest in carrying sports channels?
 
navychop

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There won’t be any sports enthusiasts at DTV by then.
 
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Bruce

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Charlie can't keep his own customers..Why would he want sports enthusiasts from directv when he has no interest in carrying sports channels?
Sports have already started the move towards streaming, in about 3-5 years the same sports that are offered on Traditional Live TV services will also be available streaming, at what price I could not guess.

In about 3-5 years, the Satellite Side of DirecTV will be quite unprofitable by then if they keep losing customers at the same rate.
 
Juan

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Sports have already started the move towards streaming, in about 3-5 years the same sports that are offered on Traditional Live TV services will also be available streaming, at what price I could not guess.

In about 3-5 years, the Satellite Side of DirecTV will be quite unprofitable by then if they keep losing customers at the same rate.
How?.. the sports fans keep directv alive
 
navychop

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They won’t have the sports from DTV anymore.
 
Bruce

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How?.. the sports fans keep directv alive
I keep them alive!....I have unreliable Internet and so so speeds!

They are losing even with NFLST and all those sports about 1.5 to 2 million a year, at that rate they will be down about 4.5 million to 6 million in just 3 years and 7.5 to 10 million in 5 years, how many subs do they need to stay profitable.

The Satellite side of DirecTV has other things going against it, the loss of ST will hasten the sub loss, their boxes are getting quite old and we all know as these type of electronics get older, they get slower and start failing.

The other thing is DirecTV is trying to get the Sat Customers to switch to the streaming side, that will also hasten the end that much quicker, the more who leave will make it that much quicker the Satellite Side is unprofitable.

And Corporations care about the majority who get fast internet, they do not care about the minority who do not.
 
A

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They are losing even with NFLST and all those sports about 1.5 to 2 million a year, at that rate they will be down about 4.5 million to 6 million in just 3 years and 7.5 to 10 million in 5 years, how many subs do they need to stay profitable.

The Satellite side of DirecTV has other things going against it, the loss of ST will hasten the sub loss, their boxes are getting quite old and we all know as these type of electronics get older, they get slower and start failing.

The other thing is DirecTV is trying to get the Sat Customers to switch to the streaming side, that will also hasten the end that much quicker, the more who leave will make it that much quicker the Satellite Side is unprofitable.

And Corporations care about the majority who get fast internet, they do not care about the minority who do not.
Cant disagree with all you say....Thats why years ago we should have controlled the interned just like a utility....Helped rural America stay updated, not fall behind.

We did it with trains, the telegraph, electricity, phone lines, highways....See a pattern that helped all people? It wasnt about profits like it its now....We live in a world were it is hurray for me and F you.....damn sad
 
Bruce

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Cant disagree with all you say....Thats why years ago we should have controlled the interned just like a utility....Helped rural America stay updated, not fall behind.

We did it with trains, the telegraph, electricity, phone lines, highways....See a pattern that helped all people? It wasnt about profits like it its now....We live in a world were it is hurray for me and F you.....damn sad

Cannot say more because of the no political talk outside of the Pit.

I will say there are options, Star Link for one, I know it is more expensive, but internet for the Rural Areas always has been, then the offerings from T-Mobile and AT&T for Home Internet, but I have not idea what your Cell Reception is like.
 
Bruce

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found this-


This article uses real bad math, example-

DirecTV was spun off from AT&T last year and had a reported 14.6 million remaining subscribers across its satellite- and IP-based services at the end of 2021. NFL Sunday Ticket pricing ranges from $293.96 to $395.99 for the "Max" plan, with customers able to sign up as the NFL regular season progresses at prorated cost.

14.6 Million was true, but it included DirecTV, the streaming versions and Uverse, the problem is that DirecTV Stream and Uverse do not get NFLST, the estimated DirecTV Sat sub count was roughly 11 million.

Doing the basic math, if 23% of AT&T's base (around 3.35 million customers) pay $300, DirecTV is just about breaking even each season on its Sunday Ticket licensing

Right now, if 23% of Sat Subs ( 2.53 million ) pay $300, that is $759 million, which I believe to be close since all the news stories has said they make between $600-800 million ( but paying $1.5 Billion).

The article also said 16% get it free, that is another 1.76 million, so over 4 million get NFLST, how many of those will leave after ST is gone after next season.
Just as I thought when I did the math, the survey is totally off, found this-

Axios, citing data from SNL Kagan, reported that 23 percent of DirecTV’s subscribers paid for Sunday Ticket during the 2021 NFL season. SNL Kagan surveyed 9,940 people, of which just over 2,000 were DirecTV subscribers. Of those, 54 percent said they do not subscribe to Sunday Ticket, 23 percent say they did subscribe, and 16 percent said they got Sunday Ticket as a “new subscriber perk.” An additional 7 percent said that they “don’t know.”

If 23% pay and another 16% get it for free, that is 3876.6 people out of 9940, yet in the survey, only 2000 said they get DirecTV.


Then this-

The answer lies in uncovering one of the great myths about the NFL Sunday Ticket: It does not make a profit, has never made a profit, and will never make a profit.

How do I know this?

AT&T told us.

The telco last year filed a statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission that said it had agreed to pay up to $2.1 billion in losses stemming from the Sunday Ticket contract as part of its sale of a minority stake in DIRECTV to the private equity firm, TPG.

DIRECTV also generates revenue from selling the Ticket to bars and restaurants, but it’s not enough to offset the losses from the consumer business.


 
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NashGuy

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I honestly do not think a buy out and/or a merger with Directv is in the cards right now, Dish’s Cash on hand is $3 Billion, total liabilities is over $33 billion.

Right now there are trying to build a Network and everything is going towards that, interest rates are also up if they are trying to do it with the Bank’s help, so that costs extra.

Also, what Bank would think it is a could idea to buy a failing Sat Service that looks to be gone in the next 5-7 years.
Excellent points. No one wants to buy either DTV or Dish. AT&T and Dish/Ergen are stuck with what they have. Which is why their only choices are:

A. Keep things as-is, duking it out with each other for a dwindling share of US households that have no choice for TV other than satellite
B. Call a truce and join forces to increase scale, reduce costs and eliminate their only other satellite TV competitor

Choice A makes no sense. Obviously they're going to do Choice B, which is why Ergen for years now has said that it's "inevitable". All that's happening now is that both sides are waiting and working to get into as good a negotiating position as they can while the other side's position hopefully deteriorates. Because when a deal is struck, each side wants as big a share of the joint venture's profits as possible as they ride it down to nothing over the remainder of this decade. But they each have to weigh this extended period of posturing and positioning against the opportunity costs of not making a deal ASAP, while also keeping in mind how regulatory risks (i.e. a struck-down merger, or onerous conditions placed on the merger) may rise and fall in the coming months and years due to politics.
 
N

NashGuy

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Cant disagree with all you say....Thats why years ago we should have controlled the interned just like a utility....Helped rural America stay updated, not fall behind.

We did it with trains, the telegraph, electricity, phone lines, highways....See a pattern that helped all people? It wasnt about profits like it its now....We live in a world were it is hurray for me and F you.....damn sad
We as a nation have failed ourselves these past 40+ years as we have placed the interests of the wealthy few, again and again, above the interests of the many. The era you're referring to, when government engaged in massive infrastructure programs like the TVA, is from the progressive era that reigned in early 20th century America, ultimately giving rise to the New Deal, labor unions that built the middle class, universal electrification and communications networks, universal compulsory public education, voting rights for women, civil rights for people of all colors and creeds, and so much more.

But a backlash political philosophy began forming in the 1950s, found its first major party presidential candidate in 1964 (who not coincidentally had voted against the landmark Civil Rights Act of 1964) and finally captured the White House in 1980 and Congress in the 1990s. This philosophy is best understand, ultimately, as anti-civilization. It values private property above ALL else and seeks to tear down all the things that make modern dignified human life and flourishing possible for the masses.

Fortunately, opposing forces are currently (barely) in charge. The major infrastructure bill that was passed by Pres. Biden and Congress last year includes billions of dollars to extend quality broadband service to underserved areas through the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund, and it prioritizes fiber-to-the-home over other forms of broadband such as cable or fixed wireless. Telecompetitor.com is a good website for staying abreast of what's happening with the disbursal of those funds, including this story from today:

 
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NashGuy

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I just got an email NFL Sunday ticket Max -for free -it must be a farewell gift for D*TV
DTV gave it away to a ton of post-contract customers on the Choice and above package last year too. It's basically free to them at this point, I think, because AT&T covered the remaining cost of the NFLST contract as a condition for the spin-off of DTV into a separate unit. So DTV is just giving it away as an incentive for those customers to stick around at least through the end of the year. But après ça, le déluge.
 
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