- Mar 24, 2009
They're both losing subs to non-sat TV (including their own streaming alternatives, DTV Stream and Sling) but there continues to be churn between the two. And yes, I would certainly imagine that the churn is more in the direction of DTV to DISH than the other way around, although DTV is, I would bet, doing a much better job of retaining customers by converting them from sat to DTV Stream than DISH is by converting them to Sling (which is sub-optimal anyway given Sling's much lower revenues).It is in their quarterly report, which was 156,000 new subs, so if DirecTV is still losing, estimated by the experts, around 400,000 -500,000 thousand a quarter, that still leaves over 300,000 in the wind.
I also think it is more logical that people leaving DirecTV would go to Dish then the reverse because of the price difference, specially that second year price, while Dish stays the same for 2 years.
So if Dish lost net 202,000 but gained 156,000, that really means 358,000 longer term subs left.
As to the doubters of a coming merger, I just keep pointing back to Ergen's public comments, repeatedly calling such a merger "inevitable" and most recently backing up what I've been saying for months, which is that a merger is on hold for now due to fear of campaign-season politics which could trigger a regulatory move to quash the deal (or place "onerous" conditions, such as rural-area price controls, on it that both sides would very much like to avoid).