Dish Earning Conf Call Monday 8/4/08

[riffjim4069]

No,

For once, Moffett was right. It was a net loss of 25,000 customers. Dish is having almost zero net gain for the year. Last quarter was only 35,000 gain. Terrible numbers and churn rate. Bleak year for DISH

I wouldn't say "bleak" because E* is profitable, Charlie is still doing a stellar job with the financials, and they still have more than 13 million paying customers. However, the real test is how well E* does the remainder of the 2008 after having their asses handed to them by D* (marketing machine), increased competition by FiOS/U-Verse and Cable, continued loss of goodwill after yanking yet more programming without warning (VOOM, GolTV), potentially turning off DVRs and paying TiVo, etc. Likewise, there are lots of problems with Dish Network operations these days...call centers going down hilll, duplicate fees for SD/HD programming, becoming the Nickle & Dime leader (multiple DVR fees, phone line fee, external storage enabling fee, etc.)

 

[DodgerKing]

I can almost assure you that FiOS will have a net gain and AT&T, perhaps. So it appears that every provider will gain subs except for Dish. Dish, tell me how the economy plays a role again?

 

[riffjim4069]

Cablevision Add 260,000 video customers
Comcast Add 320,000 Digital Video
Comcast Lost 138,000 Basic Video
Direct reports on 08/07
Echostar/DISH Lost 25,000
At&T ?
Fios ?

Verizon had a net increase of 176,000 FiOS TV subscribers, which was actually well below the pace that was predicted. However, the TV markets just opened in New York city so they should easily surpass adding another 500,000 customers from June-December.

AT&T reported addding 170,000 customers during 2Q

Revised Table:

Cablevision Add 260,000 video customers
AT&T Added 170,000 video (U-Verse) customers
Verizon Added 176,000 video (FiOS TV) customers
Comcast Add 320,000 Digital Video
Comcast Lost 138,000 Basic Video
Direct reports on 08/07
Echostar/DISH Lost 25,000

Not good for Dish Network...

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

Here goes the call. Surprisingly Charlie is there (as he noted last time he would not be here toda as he was going on vacation)

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

Charlie is blaming the economy and hacking for Dish Network's their loss.

 

[DodgerKing]

Charlie is blaming the economy and hacking for Dish Network's their loss.

Of course he is. It is much easier to blame something else than to look at ones own faults. If it is the economy, then why is every single other TV provider both profiting and gaining subs?

 

[goaliebob99]

Charlie is blaming the economy and hacking for Dish Network's their loss.

Come on Charlie.. Its not the Economy.. If it was the economy everyone would be posting losses..

 

[rad]

Of course he is. It is much easier to blame something else than to look at ones own faults. If it is the economy, then why is every single other TV provider both profiting and gaining subs?

The general thought is that E*'s for the 'budget' minded consumer, maybe the one that doesn't have much extra income in their budget. If that's the case it could be that's the reason for the loss, those folks look at their budget and say it's either keep Dish or eat and buy gas this month, guess which get's cancelled?

 

[jokeworm]

Echostar/DISH Lost 25,000

Not good for Dish Network...

I'm just glad i could help be a part of history

 

[goaliebob99]

Now he's saying the churn is seasonal...... Seasonalbly higher.

 

[jansan]

Charlie is blaming the economy and hacking for Dish Network's their loss.

People aren't buying it. E* must now spend even more money in the future to keep existing customers. I am very curious about D* numbers.

The stock is down 6% today. GE dumped their holdings little while back. E* stock is getting cheap again. Thanks for the update to riffjim4069

Supporting Founder

 

[goaliebob99]

As far as Tivo, Charlie Say's that they have external conformation that they are not in violation of the patent and have designed the DVR software around tivo's patent and expects to win in court on september 4th.

 

[goaliebob99]

Charlie would like a relationship with Tivo after all is said and done.

 

[pdxsam]

It's not hacking either. While there are a lot of people hacking Dish.. typically hackers don't subscribe. They get it for free or do without.

More Charlie spin.

 

[jwgreen68]

Because the average sub subscribed to more programming. Plus, you have to add 3% for inflation over last year.

RiffJim was close with his prediction of a 30,000 subscriber loss.

I am not math guy but I am trying to figure how they made a profit with a loss of 25,000 customers. Something is not adding up to me there.

 

[rad]

Because the average sub subscribed to more programming.

Did they? Looking at some of the comments on this and other sites it sounded like a good number of HD subs with a bit of programming downgraded to the HD only package and reduced their monthly bill. Plus there was the Cinemax give away (a penny a month) which had to hurt their bottom line.

 

[jwgreen68]

Did they? Looking at some of the comments on this and other sites it sounded like a good number of HD subs with a bit of programming downgraded to the HD only package and reduced their monthly bill. Plus there was the Cinemax give away (a penny a month) which had to hurt their bottom line.

You may be right there. There's no legal way for them to inflate their numbers. Maybe we're just not seeing where the revenue actually came from. The 3% for inflation is standard though.

 

[jwgreen68]

Where does the 777,000 number come from?

13,900,000 X 0.0187 = 260,000 +/-

What am I missing here?

Brad

another 0 .00187

 

[riffjim4069]

As far as Tivo, Charlie Say's that they have external conformation that they are not in violation of the patent and have designed the DVR software around tivo's patent and expects to win in court on september 4th.

Yep, and I am sure TiVo will have their hired guns that say they still infringe. The point is probably moot since the court order says to disable DVR functionality and the time to argue that a software upgrade can render them no longer infringing has long since past. E* will be required to disable the DVRs and, perhaps, they can petition the court to enable DVR functionallity aftterwards. Of course, E* will simply replace these DVRs and/or pay fines until they can be replaced.

 

[riffjim4069]

Come on Charlie.. Its not the Economy.. If it was the economy everyone would be posting losses..

I agree...this is what I posted in another thread where Mr. Ergen is quoted as saying he "wasn't as aware of the operations."

Dish Network performance during 1Q: (Jan-Mar 2008)

- Added 730,000 new customers during 1Q
- Had 695,000 customers terminate service during 1Q
- Net gain of 35,000 customer during 1Q
- AT&T signed up 116,000 Dish Network satellite customers during 1Q

Significant Events during 2Q: (Apr-Jun)

- Dropped 15 VOOM HD channels (May)
- Announced AT&T to end partnership at end of year (June)
- DirecTV marketing and promotions are killing Dish Network's efforts
- Cable has become more competitive
- DirecTV is exploiting their HD Leadership
- Telcos (Verizon, AT&T) are ramping up operations and customers are being lured by fiber-to-the-home
- Consumers affected by worsening economic conditions: housing slowdown, increased fuel prices, etc
- Announced standing up special call center to battle a 15% increase in churn
- AT&T signed up only 3,000 Dish Network satellite customers during 2Q opting to focus on U-Verse deployment...

I don't know about your take on the matter, but I can only conclude that Dish Network is going to report subscriber numbers in the red. We shall see what happens on August 8th.

CEO Ergen says he "wasn't as aware of the operations"
as he should have been John Marshall Mantel/SIPA Press