Fox v. Dish (& Cablevision): A reasoned article!

[flyingsquirrel]

Television Blackouts in U.S. Reach Decade-High Over Fee Fights - Bloomberg

Article brings up quite a few good points, including:

1) Fox contract with Cablevision for local stations expires this FRIDAY. Could be a precursor for the Dish dispute.

2) Reminded me that Fox has not been charging for locals. That the last time around, Fox allowed Dish to carry locals in return for Dish carrying FX and NatGeo. Now they probably want more for FX and NatGeo AND they want to be paid for the locals as well.

 

[EatMyVolts]

Did I read this correctly? Fox used to be free to dish in order to get them to carry other Newscorp channels and now they want to charge $5/month for it. That's absurd! Give 'em heck, Charlie.

 

[DishSubLA]

Yeah, that was pretty much the rule for O&O's: no charge or very low charge in order to get their other "cable channels" in the cable or Sat line-up.

However, the mega media conglomerates who own the O&O's are now out for big bucks, as expressed by none other than Les Moonves who has told stock holders that CBS O&O's haven't gotten as much money as they could and Les (and other media titans) have stated that it is their intention to use the carriage rights for as much money as they can get and view the carriage rights to cable sat, et al. as their primary source of revenue growth. Fox, NBC Universal, Disney (ABC) have pretty much said the same as Les.

That should tell you what we are headed for in the very near future. We are going to see a lot of cable systems, Uverse, Verizon FiOS, DirectTV, and Dish willing to drop many O&O's in the largest cities for--who knows how long and who will blink first. O&O's will be take no prisoners. It will come to pass and be very sad.

 

[Ghpr13]

It wil be very interesting to see what happens with all of this. From reading the different post here on SatelliteGuys.US, I'm seeing alot of subscribers taking a hard look at what they are paying out monthly for TV. It seems these disputes are making people think twice about what they really need programming wise.
These disputes are also making people blow off the dust on OTA and wondering why are they paying for something that use to be free???
With this economy, where so many are looking to cut back on costs, pay TV is standing out more then ever.
Now I'm not saying everyone will be canceling Sat/Cable Co. contracts tomorrow, but I feel these carriage disputes are just drawing attention to a monthly bill that many of us have just taken for granted as a necessity like gas & electric, but now are looking at options to if not get rid of it, then maybe trim it down some.
After all is said and done, us subscribers might come out better off then we think we will. It might not be what we had hope for, but still a saving none the less.

Ghpr13

 

[hemway]

I understand that the big broadcasters are out to make money and the satellite/cable companies are trying to deliver the most content to their customers at a reasonable price while still making money.

What I don't understand is the fact that when a broadcaster like Fox pulls the distribution of their programming from satellite/cable companies resulting in millions of less viewers, why the companies advertising (commercials) on these channels are still paying the high advertising fees? One would think that they would want a cut in fees because of the fewer viewers. Is Fox still charging them full price? If Fox does lower their advertising fees, I would think that the lower advertising revenue and loss of subscriber fees would impact them more then the satellite/cable companies.

On the satellite/cable side of things I would think that the loss of customers would be a problem, but not as big as one would expect. I don't think either will lose a very high percentage of customers (yes there will be some, maybe 10% - 15%) which would result in lower profits.

I think both sides need to think of the consumer. With these hard times people are looking for ways to cut expenses and I'm sure that many would be willing to go back to free-over-the-air TV and the Internet to get the other content.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

I dont know why DISH is publishing a list of FOX sponsors so viewers can contact them and tell them they cant see their ads because FOX pulled their signal from DISH.

Normally in these disputes DISH is very vocal, but in this dispute they have been very quiet, almost like they dont want to rock the boat too much...

 

[sfollenius]

In response to the comment on OTA, I have ordered a new antenna to mount on my roof to bring in FOX OTA just in case! Plus it's nice have that additional tuner!

 

[tomcrown1]

These dispute will kill the money cow for distributors. I see a time when their will be only one sattelite and cable program provider. When that happens these companies will just tell the distributors you want to be on our service then we will only pay x amount take it or leave!!!

That is the danger for companies like fox, short term gains for long term lose it is in fox best interest to come to a agreement that is fair (whatever that means)

 

[flyingsquirrel]

I dont know why DISH is publishing a list of FOX sponsors so viewers can contact them and tell them they cant see their ads because FOX pulled their signal from DISH.

Normally in these disputes DISH is very vocal, but in this dispute they have been very quiet, almost like they dont want to rock the boat too much...

The answer is as simple as N-F-L. And H-U-L-U.

First, Dish will be put into a tight spot at the end of the month, and they know it. Imagine how many subscribers they will lose if the Fox Channels are Dark November 7 in places Like Chicago, Dallas, New York, Etc. IF they are dark throughout November, they could loose hundreds of thousands of subscribers. If you had that kind of Cannon pointed at your head, how much talking would you be doing? And what would you say to keep NFL fans from jumping ship and keep advertisers from buying time on NFL games? Really?

Worse, if DISH starts some kind of high-visibility campaign that raises the spectre of losing Fox O&Os, what do you think is going to happen to the stock price TODAY? A fat lot of not good, i'll tell you.

Second, Dish is in Bed with Logitech and Google on GoogleTV. They want unfettered access to Hulu (co-owned by NewsCorp) for ALL GoogleTV boxes. including the ones connected to Dish boxes. At this stage of that game, sabre-rattling might not be in Dish's long-term best interested.

As I have watched this, I am thinking that Dish is taking a much more nuanced approach to the negotiations. I negotiate a lot of contracts, and when your adversary holds all the cars (as Fox will November 1), you try to change the game. If you don't have a good poker hand, try Gin Rummy.

Because of that, I am guessing that the eventual deal will include things we have not thought of, like Google TV access to all Hulu and Fox online non-linear services. And since that has a separate revenue stream, maybe Dish pays for that out of the fees for Google TV. That way Fox get the money it wants, but Dish pays for it in a way that helps them avoid raising rates for existing customers.

In the process, they would establish a rate base for other online services being connected to GoogleTV.

It might even be announced with some fanfare, as in "Dish and Fox reach long term agreement to change the face of 21st century media distribution", or something like that.

Overall, I would expect to get from Dish what we have been getting: Hard-nosed but not publicly heavy-handed. Too much is at stake. The parties have to be friends afterwards. They have much in common as the survey the changing media landscape. Eric Schull's job is to convince Fox of that.

 

[navychop]

Glad I still have my OTA setup working fine. But we only DVR a single network show - DH.

 

[mike123abc]

This is a scary trend. If you look at it, a cable/satellite operator probably has $20/month overhead for a customer before delivering a single channel. Then if the big 4 locals all want $5/month, you are looking at $40/month as a base bill for a cable/satellite provider to break even just providing locals.

Adding in a reasonable markup for profitablity over carriage charges, the average bill of a minimal package could go up to $60 (like AT120).

Most cable companies with thier single tiers would see basic cable nearing $80-$100/month. I wonder how long people would go before cutting out pay tv all together.

 

[tomcrown1]

This is a scary trend. If you look at it, a cable/satellite operator probably has $20/month overhead for a customer before delivering a single channel. Then if the big 4 locals all want $5/month, you are looking at $40/month as a base bill for a cable/satellite provider to break even just providing locals.

Adding in a reasonable markup for profitablity over carriage charges, the average bill of a minimal package could go up to $60 (like AT120).

Most cable companies with thier single tiers would see basic cable nearing $80-$100/month. I wonder how long people would go before cutting out pay tv all together.

That is why I stated that at this rate only two pay providers will last since the big boys can keep their rates low for a while thus forcing the other competition out of the market

When this happens they will hold all the keys and can and will tell programmers what they will pay aka wall mart today.

 

[kvnfl]

Dish put the pieces in place to yank many local fox affiliates:

Other Changes
8312 TP55 (4) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Atlanta, GA market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 6)
8255 TP55 (6) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Austin, TX market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 8)
8737 TP55 (23) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Baltimore, MD market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 25)
8057 TP55 (5) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Birmingham, AL market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 7)
8769 TP55 (21) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Boston, MA market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 26)
8508 TP55 (31) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Chicago, IL market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 33)
8509 TP55 (49) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Chicago, IL market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 51)
8418 TP55 (3) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 110° TP 21 SD Dallas, TX market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 28)
8419 TP55 (28) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 110° TP 21 SD Dallas, TX market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 3)
8209 TP55 (30) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Denver, CO market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 32)
8029 TP55 (3) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 110° TP 21 SD Detroit, MI market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 1)
7264 TP55 (7) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Greensboro/Winston Salem, NC market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 9)
5174 UNCTV (25 HD Local) WILMINGTON, NC (PBS) 61.5° 3s5 (Raleigh) HD Greenville/New Bern, NC market *TEST* Hidden - Engineering Change Mapdown Changed (was 25 HD)
8368 TP55 (25) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Houston, TX market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 27)
8369 TP55 (19) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Houston, TX market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 21)
8578 TP55 (8) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Minneapolis/St Paul, MN market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 10)
8579 TP55 (28) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Minneapolis/St Paul, MN market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 30)
8099 TP55 (8) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 New York, NY market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 10)
8268 TP55 (34) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Orlando, FL market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 36)
8269 TP55 (64) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Orlando, FL market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 66)
8149 TP55 (28) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Philadelphia, PA market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 30)
8589 TP55 (3) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 110° TP 21 SD St Louis, MO market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 1)
8682 TP55 (11) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 61.5° TP 28 SD MPEG4 Tampa, FL market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 14)
8078 TP55 (6) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 110° TP 21 SD Washington, DC market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 19)
8079 TP55 (19) SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT 110° TP 21 SD Washington, DC market *TEST* Hidden - Mapdown Changed (was 6)

The above is a cut and paste from Uplink Activity for the Week of 10-11-10 - DBSTalk.Com

 

[Chris36]

Do you think they are going to put a substitute Fox affialate?? For these markets?? If they go off Nov. 1st?

 

[mdram]

Do you think they are going to put a substitute Fox affialate?? For these markets?? If they go off Nov. 1st?

not allowed without permission from the affiliate that has rights for the dma

 

[zim2dive]

Dish put the pieces in place to yank many local fox affiliates:

Other Changes
5174 UNCTV (25 HD Local) WILMINGTON, NC (PBS) 61.5° 3s5 (Raleigh) HD Greenville/New Bern, NC market *TEST* Hidden - Engineering Change Mapdown Changed (was 25 HD)

This is a PBS station.

They can yank all the FOX affiliates they want.. I have rabbit ears.. why complain about a channel I can get for free?

 

[billpa]

Mixing OTA and satellite is such a pain though. It can be done- but I like to keep things simple.

 

[zim2dive]

Mixing OTA and satellite is such a pain though. It can be done- but I like to keep things simple.

No pain at all.. I've had it hooked up since day 1. Its just another channel in the list I could record from.

this (removing the Dish version of OTA channels) strikes me as the most hollow (and hilarious) of all the threats.

 

[SRF23]

Dish only carries lousy SD versions of my locals so I have had to use OTA to get decent TV anyway. They can yank my FOX - it sucks anyway. I do miss the RSNs during college football season...

 

[cditty]

Actually, Dish makes it ridiculously easy to integrate OTA and satellite. In fact, I highly recommend it, as it gives you extra tuners.

There is overhead in Dish & Direct operating local reception centers and fiber links. I know I may catch heat for this, but I actually think that the government should require OTA to provide their signals free of charge. That is the public interest, which the broadcaster is supposed to serve. Think about it, the FCC should make them provide the signal to Dish free and then make Dish provide it to the DMA subscribers for free.

No carriage fee and no extra locals charge for the customer.

I know I'm dreaming and it will probably never happen, but I think it is a good idea. Maybe if everyone that complained on here took a moment to drop a line to their congressmen and house representatives, we could get some changes floated around.