Is Verizon Looking at a DISH Purchase?
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Or they could switch everyone to Sat Internet and use the full bandwidth to offer TV services.
I think Verzon's CEO "fantasy" remark (saying Verizon interested in Dish was someone's fantasy) is a bit too much protesting. IMHO Verizon is seriously considering Dish, but there is a spectrum auction coming up and the FCC has limited AT&T and Verizon participation because they own about 2/3rds of t h e wireless spectrum. DISH will be bidding with no restrictions. I think Verizon wants (and Charlie feeling it best tactics, as well) Dish to acquire the spectrum it can, and then announce Verizon buying Dish---and it's spectrum included---so they are in a better position to negotiate I ate with the FCC should the newly acquired Dish have to give up some of its spectrum for the sale to go through. Verizon would be in a better position to agree to give up spectrum it feels it needs least. IMHO.
Uverse has no critical mass (paying the highest fees--along with Fios--for programming), has no traction and is too expensive to expand with so few subscribers. Verizon Fios is in the very same circumstance. And they both want out of their heavily regulated POTS and copper network, at least as a common carrier. The can both offer VoIP phone service cheaper along with ISP services. That leaves each with one last part of the triple play: TV service. Far more economical to buy a mature DBS company with immediate critical mass, cheaper programming agreements, and a nationwide market. Both Dish and DirecTV are well run companies with excellent financials, and each have superior in-home tech with Genie and Hopper, and sat still enjoys net GAINS no matter how small. The telcos will be buying virtual "cable companies" at least the TV part of it. Remember Dish will be launching an OTT service by the end o f the year and has spectrum, so it is better positioned for the future should it change as we see it today. The telcos have no choice but to buy DBS, and now that AT&T will have completed their build out of a real TV service virtually overnight, it's biggest competitor Verizon can't allow it self to be uncompetitive. Verizon has no choice but to buy Dish. There is no alternative. I guess Ergan gets to go play at Echostar.
Very well thought out and you sketch a very viable scenario. Perhaps it will take time for it to happen as I think more has to happen first. As you point out in another post one of those things could be for DISH to acquire more spectrum. I think it may also be for DISH to get even better established with online programming, perhaps buying things like Roku, Hulu, or I can definitely see Aereo should they win in court. (I don't know the actual possibility of those) At that point I would think they would be a prime target, but also at that point who is bigger, DISH or a company such as Verizon? It isn't out of the question that DISH becomes the next big boy in telecommunications. Question is does someone like Verizon buy them before that happens. At&t did up Verizon big time with the proposed buyout, and your statement that Verizon can't let At&t get that far ahead is very true. What their action will be will be fun to see as will how DISH proceeds going forward.
I do have an alternative scenario. If Verizon is interested, it could be a merger rather than buying/owning. It benefits both companies, DISH would still substantially run the Satellite business, but with the extra clout of Verizon money and it's subscribers, Verizon gets more spectrum and together with DISH builds out wireless and online programming. That isn't the kind of relationship that lasts forever, but it doesn't need to as it accomplishes big things for both now. At some point it would become one company most likely or one part of it gets spun off.
I do have an alternative scenario. If Verizon is interested, it could be a merger rather than buying/owning. It benefits both companies, DISH would still substantially run the Satellite business, but with the extra clout of Verizon money and it's subscribers, Verizon gets more spectrum and together with DISH builds out wireless and online programming. That isn't the kind of relationship that lasts forever, but it doesn't need to as it accomplishes big things for both now. At some point it would become one company most likely or one part of it gets spun off.
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Dish has a lot of cash on hand, right? Didn't they leverage to the hilt to try and buy that mobile company? The bandwidth is extremely valuable.
They are sitting on about 9 billion right now, but they need a lot of cash if they are going to build out a network on their own.
Never say Never If AT&T/DirecTV merger goes through I wouldn't be surprised if they try it imo!!
I can just see Ergen saying that AT&T needs to give up x thousand cell towers here and there as part of the merger with Directv. And that Ergen would be willing to take those off of AT&T hands.
Yes, a lot of scenarios. However, the only problem with a merge of Dish and Verizon is that it would include CHARLIE ERGEN!
I somehow think Verizon would rather have full control of Dish than have the press Ergen creates or just having him at the Verizon board meetings. Something like Ted Turner at Time-Warner. Further, I don't think Charlie wants to be that Ted Turner who would regail at board meetings with the board just ignoring him and moving on once he finshed a speech. Poor Ted was immediately diminshed, and I don't think Charlie wants that for himself. However, a deal could be made where Charlie and Joe would be part of the deal, but only for a period, say a few years, when Ergen would step away from the company completely. I don't think we'll know if Dish is being bought until AFTER the spectrum auction. I just can't imagine Verizon sitting back and letting AT&T become the 2nd largest PayTV provider (or would that be LARGEST? I can't remember what the result would be) while Verizon continues to do NOTHING with FiOS TV at a mere 5 million subs and NO future of rising. Verizon HAS to buy Dish; I just really feel Verizon has NO CHOICE. It's like a forced move in chess. AT&T has checked Verizon, and Verizon MUST respond directly to that threat. Just an IMHO.
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You didn't think this out. Buying DISH would necessarily involve buying out Charlie.Yes, a lot of scenarios. However, the only problem with a merge of Dish and Verizon is that it would include CHARLIE ERGEN!
Unless Charlie is willing to relinquish total control of DISH to what ever company is willing to buy them, I don't see ANY company wanting to buy DISH. Ergen is the reason why he can't find a buyer or a partner. His past reputation is what is keeping them from moving on or establishing a partnership for the future. Goes back to that old saying : Be careful how you treat people on the way up ,because it will be those same people you will meet on the way down. OR in other words practice the Golden rule in all you do .
I'm not so sure that rule holds true in the world of business though. It's more like, Kill or be Killed.
You're talking about a partnership and this thread is about an outright purchase. Unless the buyer negotiates for it, Charlie has no say in what the company that buys his baby does with it.
I believe Echostar and Dish were separated to allow Dish to be 100% sold off and Charlie keeps Echostar and all his toys (satellites that Echostar leases to Dish and box manufacturing).
I 'm talking about the only way Charlie would ever give up DISH is in a partnership or full on merger where he would remain in control. This is one of the many reasons he had trouble in the DISH /DIRECTV failed merger. Charlie always wants to stay in control and that won't work in the business world.
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And how has that worked so for him so far? Any takers ??? I also remember another reason why he spun off DISH. Charlie wanted Echostar to build other cable companies receivers through Echostar and I have yet to see any partnerships announced for that.
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That's the problem with business and that is why many in the business world aren't doing so well now. Walmart is one that comes to mind. You don't treat your workers well, like pay them well , and the word of mouth travels all across the planet. Treat people like you would like to be treated and it works well in life as well as business world. Conversely, Karma is a real B*tch. It always comes back on you somewhere down the line, if you have treated others poorly . Your reputation in the business world is also public knowledge . One of a few companies that would be willing to do business with DISH is Echostar. He might as well merge back with them and be done with it.
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