Earl Weaver used to say that you're never as smart as you look like you are when you're winning, and you're never as dumb as you look like you are when you're losing.
The Red Sox have had several things unexpectedly go wrong which weren't the manager's fault, and a handful of things that have unexpectedly gone right, which the manager was marginally involved in.
The Red Sox management has spent big money on some unproductive contracts. It is not known how much of the waste of $240 million on Carl Crawford and Dice-K comes from them being overvalued, for which I hold management accountable, and how much it comes from injuries, which are no one's fault.
The Red Sox efforts have been inhibited somewhat by underperformance of Gonzalez, Pedroia, Lester and Beckett, as well as by early season washout caliber performances of Bard and Melancon. Valentine, as manager, is at most only marginally involved in the unsuccessful early season performances of Bard and Melancon, but realistically they screwed up all by themselves.
Valentine basically patched up the line-up with the pieces that management had given him They had stockpiled several players acquired"on the cheap" who have played well including position players Cody Ross, Posednik, Sweeney and Aviles, and pitchers Miller, Morales, Cook, Padilla, Acheson and Albers
Valentine chose to start Ross ahead of Sweeney against some righthanded pitching and it worked, but then when Ross got injured, Sweeney got to bat more and even against some lefthanded pitching and that worked. I think I give some credit to Valentine there, but when either option works, who can say how much credit he should get?
Valentine played both Byrd and Posednik in center and Posednik hit .380. Does Valentine get credit for that? Any manager would have given those at bats to Posednik. It's just that no manager, including Valentine, would have expected Posednik to hit .380, nor would he have had anything to do with that success.
He has also favored using Saltalamacchia over Shoppach a little more than most would have expected, and it is surely paying off offensively and there has been no mutiny by the starting prima donnas... uh... I mean pitchers. But while it doesn't seem to have hurt the Red Sox much yet, Salty is among the worst catchers in baseball at throwing out runners
Nava got put in left when he did because other players got injured. Good move, but was there any other option?
I'd say at this point that Valentine has done a good job dealing with the chaotic bullpen situation that he inherited and that further aggravated by the injury to Bailey and the flops of Melanson and Bard.
Right now, the Red Sox are going with a six man rotation, which is a manager's decision and may work to their benefit. It means that whenever the next starter falters, there will be no disruption necessary, as each scheduled starter will move up a day to four day's rest.
The only significant management decision that has Valentine's handprints all over it is the decision to dump Youkilis and go with Middlebrook.
Right now, the Red Sox are one game out of a wildcard spot, with about 70 games left to play. California looks like a lock for one but the other is up for grabs. I'd say that the Red Sox and Tigers are best equipped for the final 70 games, but Tampa Bay has played above its seeming roster talent level too many times in the past for me to write them off.
I'd call Valentine's beginning as Red Sox manager modestly successful but doubt his act will last three years, as a city like Boston can eat up a showboat like Valentine.
