Speculation: Dish giving up on adding more HDTV for now

[mike123abc]

Just speculation, but after listening to the Charlie Chat it sounds like Dish is going to give up adding new HDTV for a while. He mentioned spring... One has to wonder if they are planning on yet another satellite to be the HDTV solution. Dish has to be coming to the conclusion that they will need a full satellite to carry all the needed HDTV. 110 is full. The wings are full, the new spot beam for 110 is 2005.

It would be a happy day at Dish if 105 got approved for DBS transmissions to the US.

 

[Stargazer]

Dish figures that most will not want to sink a lot of money into getting HD content so by offering cheap hardware such as the 811 (compared to $749 Voom system) he will be getting customers that otherwise would not get the HD service even if it means less content at first. Dish using a Dish500 instead of a SuperDish would also help them get more subscribers that may otherwise not get it plus saves Dish from spending money on upgrades to SuperDish so they have more money to have promotions for new HD subscribers.

 

[mike123abc]

I think they are working desparately on more capacity. They came to the financial decision that both 121 and 105 would be best used as LIL. They also decided that they had to invest in another spot beam satellite for LIL. But, hopefully soon they will run out of LIL markets.

This still leaves them with the international and HDTV problem. Where to get capacity for both of them? Only way I see is that the secure more satellite slots. I know they are working hard on creating new DBS slots, but I wonder if they have another FSS slot ready just in case or maybe they are thinking of doing Ka (but they do not have a satellite for that secured yet either).

 

[John Corn]

I have to agree with your speculation Mike.

 

[Ray S]

I think that Charlie wants to put the critics of the two dish solution for current HDTV channels to a rest. However I think he will be adding the new HDTV channels to 61.5 and 148. This was illuded to in the last retail chat. From what I have observed Charlie has listened to the criticism of channel availability and I believe he will be adding HDTV channels within the next quarter.

 

[dmodemd]

They missed the boat with the investors. They had new equipment and a mid/long term solution for more capacity that was supposed to make them look very good. Well, the receivers missed the Xmas season, and the SD had technical issues making it unsuitable for carrying system-wide channels including HD.

So, Charlie has to sweep that under the rug and focus on a new strategy: LIL out the ying yang! SuperDish now allows that but I think you will see a lot of potential new customers balking at the size and mounting issues of the new dish and this will seriously impede Dish's expansion into new markets.

Analyst Recommendation: Market Underperform

Lee

 

[Alan Gordon]

Just speculation, but after listening to the Charlie Chat it sounds like Dish is going to give up adding new HDTV for a while. He mentioned spring...

Hmm... Isn't that when the Turner channels are going to be upgraded to HDTV?!


~Alan

 

[Chris Freeland]

I agree with Ray S, once the 4 HD channels that are going to 110 are turned off of 61.5/148, this will make room for 4 new HD channels on the wings, which would be enough capacity to add Starz-HD, TMC-HD, Cinamax-HD and Bravo-HD. Only subs who want those channels would need to add the 2nd dish, however many subs already have that 2nd dish for their locals. If E* can find enough room to squeeze another TP worth of channels from 61.5, this would provide room for 2 or 3 more HD channels, which may be enough to carry them through until E10 is launched to 110 in 2005. Since all new E* HD channels are using 8psk modulation, they may find a way of getting 3 HD channels per TP, if so they may be able to put a couple more HD channels on 110 too.

Back when E* first placed a satellite on 110 and most of us subs had a Dish300 that could only see 119 and it was full, E* added new premium channels and the extra channels that made up the new AT150 package on 110 and all of us current subs at the time that wanted any of these additional channels upgraded to a Dish500, those that did not care kept their Dish300. I think the same will happen here, for a couple of months all HD except CBS-HD will be on 110, then as E* adds additional HD channels, those that are happy with their current HD channels will keep their current setup, those that want the new channels and do not already have a 2nd dish will add it and E* will have some Free upgrade deals for those that need it.

 

[Stargazer]

People are going to get tired of upgrading their dishes and hardware, especially bigger dishes. Something is going to have to be done to revolutionarily increase bandwidth with the space that is currently up there and to reduce the dish/antenna size as well as viewing multiple orbital slots that the satellites are located at. I have some implications posted in the past with different types of dishes that have dual reflectors and round globes that bring in multiple slots as well.

 

[Alan Gordon]

People are going to get tired of upgrading their dishes and hardware, especially bigger dishes. Something is going to have to be done to revolutionarily increase bandwidth with the space that is currently up there and to reduce the dish/antenna size as well as viewing multiple orbital slots that the satellites are located at. I have some implications posted in the past with different types of dishes that have dual reflectors and round globes that bring in multiple slots as well.

I thought they might have been thinking about changing the coding on ALL their channels, considering the new chips installed in their new receivers, or at least use the new compression scheme on the upcoming new local channels... but I guess not!

I wonder if Dish or DirecTV will experiment with MPEG4 in the future...


~Alan<~~~~~~~~Who doesn't know what to do about satellite providers....

 

[Stargazer]

I have been hearing that MPEG-4 will not help with compression.

 

[Alan Gordon]

I have been hearing that MPEG-4 will not help with compression.

Hmm... I assumed it would. Oh well, it's definately going to be interesting this coming year, I just wish I knew which one will cater to my tastes/wants/needs the best and I'll just switch/upgrade my equipment and service. '8)'


~Alan

 

[Stargazer]

Dish just doesn't have enough bandwidth. Even if they add enough to have a number of HD channels in the future something else will come out that will require even more bandwidth. They will probably never have enough bandwidth. Perhaps Dish should use something like I saw in another thread where they were going to start using something like hot air balloons to broadcast signals for tv, cell phones, and broadband internet. Dish could at least use this or lease some space to broadcast SD and/or HD locals in many areas and use all this space that they have now that they have locals and plan to place locals for national HD content.

DBS may just have to find another way to sending out locals than satellite, something that is more local and more down to earth, if they want enough space for lots of HD content for the future.

 

[rtt2]

Charlie going after the DirecTV satellites makes SOoo much more sense now. It appears he needs a DBS bird and may have been going after Loral just for the DirecTV birds.

 

[James Long]

They will probably never have enough bandwidth.

Yeah, twice as much as DirecTV isn't enough.

Work expands to fill all available time. So does satellite TV. Give them 96 transponder licenses and they will still want more!

DBS may just have to find another way to sending out locals than satellite, something that is more local and more down to earth, if they want enough space for lots of HD content for the future.

That would be MVDS, which IIRC E* and D* are fighting because it may interfere with their services.

FSS seems to be helping to add channels, but the real solution is to have better spotbeam satelites. D* is running 46 transponders from three orbital locations and still managing locals. E* holds license to 96 DBS transponders at five orbital locations (and 32 FSS transponders at a sixth location), is leasing DBS and FSS bandwidth from others, and is still desparate for more.

Guess that says something about efficiency.

JL