Who is going to Win the HD War?

[Jaded13]

merge

OK first i wish i was as smart as half you guys. SO with that said thats talk about us little people. Right now i have V* And E* , and i am sure there are alot of other people in the same boat.Forget what about the big numbers in this fantasy merger for a sec, . I would love just 1 bill. SO whoever buys or merges with Voom (i hope E*) i am sticking with that company. Cause i love voom. Its the best this since the 99cent menu.

dont forget that the fcc would not allow dish and dtv to merge as it would have been to restrictive to any new competition
there is no reason the same wouldnt hold true/ w dish and voom
also read 9/13 cablevisions report to the sec. price increase and low new subs may spell the end for voom. there own thoughs, not mine

 

[rad]

IMHO, it's not going to matter who has the best PQ, HD or SD, it's going to be who has the best bottom line. In this age of make a profit or disappear how long will Cablevision prop up Voom or will Wall Street even bite on the IPO? Remember, it's all about the $'s, not PQ.

 

[Dvlos]

I agree rad, but Voom seems to be gunning for HD owners who want the most/best HD, there is definately a market for that, since if you talk to anyone they will tell you their provider has the most/best HD for their own reasons (a pvr, good HDnet, Voom, whatever) for the least money.

What Voom isn't realizing I think about cable/DBS is that they all offer a cheaper alternative for connectivity in multiple rooms. That is what's keeping away your J6Ps I think.

What's going to turn away HD enthusiasts, or could POTENTIALLY pull away HD enthusiasts is a provider that is offering 16-18 mbps at full resolution HD channels (say 20?). WOW factor can attract people, there is no doubt about that.

 

[rad]

I agree rad, but Voom seems to be gunning for HD owners who want the most/best HD, there is definately a market for that, since if you talk to anyone they will tell you their provider has the most/best HD for their own reasons (a pvr, good HDnet, Voom, whatever) for the least money.

What Voom isn't realizing I think about cable/DBS is that they all offer a cheaper alternative for connectivity in multiple rooms. That is what's keeping away your J6Ps I think.

What's going to turn away HD enthusiasts, or could POTENTIALLY pull away HD enthusiasts is a provider that is offering 16-18 mbps at full resolution HD channels (say 20?). WOW factor can attract people, there is no doubt about that.

Dvlos, I'm not J6P, but I have only 1 HD set and 4 SD's to feed. V* not having a cost competive SD solution and no PVR (SD or HD) was a major reason that I didn't give them a shot. And while there are folks that can tell the difference between full resolution HD and what some services are doing now the majority of folks won't be able to. Hate to say it but I think V* is too much of a nitch service at the moment and was too late for it's time.

 

[Mrdectown]

hey i have seen how many mbps's D* uses, does anybody know what voom puts out? is there a thread or something i missed?

 

[Conjuror]

HD War?! There is no such a thing (yet).

A while ago on HDNet I watched several CEOs (including those from Dish, DirecTV, and several major CableTV companies) answering questions about HD future. At the time, all of them said that 2004 will be a "breaking" year regarding number of HD channels they will add to their channel line-ups. Now, we all know that nothing major happened this year and it will stay this way for few more years.

HD war will not begin until all major DBS companies start giving HD-capable boxes to all new subscribers, including those without an HDTV set. When that happens we'll know that major cable TV networks will slowly begin switching to the HD technology and those new boxes will be capable of converting HD signal to SD for those who don't have an HD TV (huge majority right now). As long as they giving away just SD capable receivers to their new subscribers for free you can be sure that there is no HD war and it will not happen any time soon. As far as I know, Voom is the only company which gives away an HD capable receiver to every single new subscriber. This may be big plus for them when the time comes.

Right now, I am extremely disappointed with slow HD progress. In fact, when someone asks me for advice about which HDTV set to buy, I just tell them not to buy anything yet -it's not worth it. Equipments are waaaaaay overpriced and at the end you'll have nothing to watch.

 

[Dvlos]

I disagree the prices of HD sets are dropping all the time, it depends on the size and technology the amount of money it takes.

 

[DarrellP]

Right now, I am extremely disappointed with slow HD progress.

If you thing progress is slow, you should have been around way back at the turn of the Century when HD offerings were feable at best. How about telling the Guru's at CES that HDTV is a slow business? According to them, every month is breaking new sales records and the prices are falling like rain.

Just 2 years ago I was considering a 42" Panasonic RPTV since they were just under $2k and had the best PQ in the price range. Today, they can be had for under $1k. I've even seen some 52" RPTV's hitting the $1k barrier and it is forecast that within 2 years, 42" Plasma and LCD TV's will break the $1k barrier.

 

[CWS_kahuna]

Right now, I am extremely disappointed with slow HD progress. In fact, when someone asks me for advice about which HDTV set to buy, I just tell them not to buy anything yet -it's not worth it. Equipments are waaaaaay overpriced and at the end you'll have nothing to watch.

I too am disappointed with the slow progress of HD, I think most of us are and we all want more and more to watch.

I however would not say it's not worth it to buy an HDTV set. For one if you have a DVD collection and purchase all widescreen films your viewing experience will be much greater due to the better fit of the image and the 480P vs. 480I capable resolution. I don't know if new regular TVs can do 480P but I know that the older ones can not.

Also there is plenty to watch in HD. I do not know what you watch but there are premium movie channels in HD, sports in HD football, hockey, basketball, baseball, soccor, we had the olympics etc..., we have specialty HD channels like HDnet, InHD, Discovery, ESPN, Bravo, TNT, playboy, spice, the Voom package etc..., and just about all of the major network shows are now in HD. The one thing we don't have is a place to get all this stuff through one service. So it's up to us to decide what we want. I have D* and I am happy, a close friend of mine has Voom and he is happy.

 

[DarrellP]

I don't know if new regular TVs can do 480P but I know that the older ones can not.

There are some ED TV's on the market and also a lot of newer TV's (last 2 years) have a 480i Component input and do the Enhanced TV viewing mode where it scrunches all of the vertical resolution into the picture area, effectively giving the appearance of a higher resolution.

A buddy of mine has the 36" Wega 4:3 SD set with the Enhanced mode and DVD's look incredible on it.

 

[Conjuror]

If you thing progress is slow, you should have been around way back at the turn of the Century when HD offerings were feable at best. How about telling the Guru's at CES that HDTV is a slow business? According to them, every month is breaking new sales records and the prices are falling like rain.

Just 2 years ago I was considering a 42" Panasonic RPTV since they were just under $2k and had the best PQ in the price range. Today, they can be had for under $1k. I've even seen some 52" RPTV's hitting the $1k barrier and it is forecast that within 2 years, 42" Plasma and LCD TV's will break the $1k barrier.

Record HDTV sales have almost nothing to do with HD programing progress, which is extremely slow and does not follows the number of sold HD sets at all. Most folks buy a widescreen TV to watch DVDs. Great majority of them don't have an HD receiver so they don't watch HDTV at all.
Major networks offer HD programs just occasionally at the prime time and only OTA. As you know, most people don't even have OTA channels- they watch whatever they can get from cable and DBS providers. At the same time both Dish and DirecTV get millions of new subscribers each year of which about 95% are very happy with free SD receivers.
So, is there an HD war? I don't think so. As I said, when all DBS providers start giving HD capable boxes to everybody and when major news stations (CNN, Fox, MS NBC...) begin switching to HD (right now they're not even thinking about it), then you'll see some kind of HD war going on. Right now too many people is very happy with plain and overcompressed SD.
Dude, DirecTV and Dish combined have about 22 million subscribers of which maybe few hundred thousands have HD capable STBs. Where in the world anybody sees the HD war going on???

 

[DarrellP]

I have 5 OTA HD channels (2 more shortly) with most Primetime HD, 21 Voom exclusives + the Marquee pack in HD & 5 HD channels from Dish. That totals 33 HD channels (some dupes) with all but the OTA 24/7 in HD, so where's the lack of programming? Compared to the turn of the century, HD is spreading like wildfire. HD is catching on faster than Color did when it was introduced.

Just because people are not watching HD with their new HD sets does not mean there is no programming. There is programming galore now, what do you want? Even the sports junkies get 6 HD games/week now. You are asking the impossible if you are expecting every single channel to be in HD, that is not going to happen until there is a bandwidth miracle cure 10 years down the road.

 

[Dvlos]

Dude, DirecTV and Dish combined have about 22 million subscribers of which maybe few hundred thousands have HD capable STBs. Where in the world anybody sees the HD war going on???

Cable has a few hundred thousands, Voom has 30,000... HD is growing not shrinking, those that have adopted early love the techonology and stay with it. It's not like 8-Track tapes, the adoption maybe slow, but then again I think that's the nature of TVs. They are for entertainment and people have other things on their minds than TV.

However the one thing analysts ARE seeing, is that more and more HDTV sets are moving off the shelves, widescreen TVs are being sold more where 3-4 years ago they were totally for the videophiles. Most homes will never have 5 HDTVs, but a growing number of them house 1 HDTV and several SDs, in the 50s you were a king among men if you owned 2 TVs.

HD is the "next" big thing, SD services have been pimped to death, if you haven't subscriber to cable or DBS now, you probably never will. Now the war for subscribers is going to shift on a new marketing focus, Make use of your $$$ HDTV and watch content 5 times sharper than before!!

There can be a clear cut winner in this field, just as cable is dominating in subscribers right now, what allowed a service like D* or E* to move in and take subs from cable in the first place was PQ problems, less SD channels than having cable.

Here comes Voom/D*/E* trying to offer more HD and at better PQ than cable all over again, except this time cable companies are being more receptive to HD and are being just as competitive with many offering HD-DVRs on lease plans, and having kept InHD all to themselves for now.

 

[Conjuror]

Isn't Voom the best example that there is no HD war at all? One and only HD DBS is struggling heavily to get more than 30-40k subscribers?

 

[Dvlos]

Perhaps, but D* is spending tons of cash, to launch enough satellites to offer 2,000 LILs and HD LILs to every major market in the US. If there was no HD war, D* could easily sit back and say "Well we give them all their locals anyway.. what the heck?"

Strong underground rumors that they are fighting for TNT-HD, others say Starz will be here next year, HD Tivo, rumors they want to get INHD 1/2...

Yeah that hasn't happened yet, but D*'s news about new satellites broke major headlines.... if there is no "war" for consumers... what the hell is D* doing?

 

[fredfa]

re conjuror:
"...Record HDTV sales have almost nothing to do with HD programing progress, which is extremely slow and does not follows the number of sold HD sets at all. Most folks buy a widescreen TV to watch DVDs. Great majority of them don't have an HD receiver so they don't watch HDTV at all.
Major networks offer HD programs just occasionally at the prime time and only OTA. As you know, most people don't even have OTA channels- they watch whatever they can get from cable and DBS providers. At the same time both Dish and DirecTV get millions of new subscribers each year of which about 95% are very happy with free SD receivers.
So, is there an HD war? I don't think so. As I said, when all DBS providers start giving HD capable boxes to everybody and when major news stations (CNN, Fox, MS NBC...) begin switching to HD (right now they're not even thinking about it), then you'll see some kind of HD war going on. Right now too many people is very happy with plain and over compressed SD.
Dude, DirecTV and Dish combined have about 22 million subscribers of which maybe few hundred thousands have HD capable STBs. Where in the world anybody sees the HD war going on???
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It is hard to know where to start with beating your arguments which you base on this confusing amalgamation of mostly inaccurate information.
But let's start with: "...Major networks offer HD programs just occasionally at the prime time and only OTA...."
Really? Almost all non-reality or news magazine programs on ABC, CBS and NBC are in HD. Fox will have more than half its lineup this year in HD.
CBS is available to DBS subs and O&O subs on E* and D*. NBC is apparently coming (at least to D*) in a matter of hours, and Fox has been promised to D* subs as well.
So that translates to "occasionally" or only OTA?
Then there is the "....when major news stations (CNN, Fox, MS NBC...) begin switching to HD (right now they're not even thinking about it), then you'll see some kind of HD war going on...."
Right. It isn't important that about 35 million people qualify for NBC HD via DBS or that about 35 million or so qualify (or will) for CBS HD and Fox HD.
What is important is that those three and a half million (total primetime) viewers of FNC, CNN and MSNBC get their programming in HD?
Surely you are joking?
And speaking of joking:
"...Dude, DirecTV and Dish combined have about 22 million subscribers of which maybe few hundred thousands have HD capable STBs..."
(Nice condescension there, Dude), but Dish announced it had 10,340,000 subs as of June 30th, and DirecTV announced that it had 13,004,000. That adds up to 23,344,000, and if about four percent of those homes had HD (a number considered a bit low by most analysts) that would provide about 933,600 HD subs. Add on the 28,700 VOOM subs and you are almost at a million - up substantially from the 300,000 or so total of early 2003.
And oh yeah, that alleged lack of programming progress:
Just in the past 18 months (and to be honest, I could have a date wrong here or there, I am doing this from memory):
ESPN HD (with ESPN2 HD due in early 2005)
ABC Monday Night Football (re-started in 2003)
CBS HD Network feeds from D* and E* (2004)
InHD
TNT HD (2004)
NBC HD Network feed from D* (Sept. 2004)
HDNet Movies (2003)
VOOM (2003)
WGN HD (2004)
Fox going from adamantly anti-HD to fervent HD supporter. (2004)
Fox Network HD feed (expected Sept 2004)
One weekly HD CBS NFL game (2003)
Two/three weekly HD CBS NFL games (2004)
Bravo HD (2004)
NBA Finals ABC 2004
Up to six weekly HD Fox NFL games (2004).
Final Four and one NCAA regional site in HD (CBS 2003)
Women's NCAA Final Four (ESPN) (2003?)
NBA Playoffs (TNT HD) (2004)
Jack and Bobby The WB's first HD series (2004)
The expansion of UPN's HD lineup (2003-2004)
NASCAR Daytona 500 (NBC) (2004)
NASCAR Richmond Race (TNT) (2004)
Masters (CBS 2003, 2004)
MSL games HDNet (2003)
More than a dozen regular PGA Tournaments (CBS) (2004)
US Tennis Open (CBS 2003?)
And then add baseball (and only mentioning teams doing a major portion of their games in HD, most starting in 2004:
Yankees games (MSG)
Mets games (FSN)
Orioles games (Comcast)
Phillies games (Comcast)
Padres games (Cox)
Cubs WGN

as to your absurd comment that: "...Equipments are waaaaaay overpriced and at the end you'll have nothing to watch...."
If you find nothing to watch from almost all of four network prime time schedules, the sports listed above, plus HBO, Showtime (D*, E*, VOOM and MSOs) plus all the other premium and exclusive VOOM channels, you must be very, very sated.

So, please, check your facts before you set off on a tirade.
Anyone who can make so many fundamental mistakes in such a short post could have a hard time being taken seriously.

 

[1080iBeVuMin]

...Equipments are waaaaaay overpriced and at the end you'll have nothing to watch.

Nothing to watch? What do you call Voom? Chopped liver?

 

[Conjuror]

Fredfa and 1080iBeVuMin,
With all respect, you have no idea what are you talking about. Take a look on HD schedule tomorrow (Sep. 15, 2004) in Atlanta area which is where I live:
WSB (ABC) will have just 30 minutes in true HD,
WXIA (NBC) will broadcast 3 hours in HD, and
WGCL (CBS) will have 2 hours in HD.
So, out of total 9 stations which broadcast its programs digitally 216 hours each day, tomorrow I can watch just 5:30 hours in HD. If that is not occasional then I don't know what is.
And sorry but I cannot watch the same movie or program all day long few times a month which is what Voom offers most of the time. If you are lucky, you'll see a movie on HBO, Cinemax, ..., etc which you didn't see more than 2 times. It is the same with DHDT and every other HD channel you can find on Voom, Dish, and DirecTV.
You'll agree with me that no DBS provider can afford waisting bandwidth by transmitting the same channel in both SD and HD. Therefore, HD transition will have to be set for a specific date when certain channel will stop broadcasting in SD and continue its programs in HD only. In order to do that, beside needed HD technology, each DBS subscriber will have to have HD capable STB which will be able to downconvert HD signal back to 480i for those who don't have an HDTV set.
How many people have that kind of STB? How many networks stopped broadcasting SD in favour of HD? How many TV networks you can watch via satellite announced that they gonna do that during the next year or so?
Sorry my friends but there is no HD war going on because there is no considerable HD market yet. Voom learned it hard way.

 

[skakusha]

Things Tham Make You Go HMMMMMM. . . .

If there were no HD war, then HD DVR's like HD Tivo for D*, and E*'s model would not exist. If you check the net, you will see that HD DVR's were, and is, a big deal. If there were no HD War then why would D* up the number of HD games covered when you purchase NFL Sunday Ticket? If there was no HD war, why do networks advertise that their shows are broadcast in HD, and sell HD sponsored by ad space?

Why would networks like TNT, ESPN, and others even bother to broadcast in HD? Why would Ted Turner build an HD studio? Why would ESPN and Playboy/Spice build HD studios? Why would CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX, WB and UPN even bother to have any HD programming? Did you notice FOX went from ED to HD fairly quickly? Have you ever walked into a Best Buy or Circuit City and seen the ratio of SD to HD TV's?

Why is there so much HD sports? I get almost all my team sports in HD and still growing. . .

Why would Microsoft release Windows Media 9 which allow for amazing compression and viewing of HD videos? I purchased Windows Media HD movies like Terminator 2, and have seen the glory of DVD's in HD. I bought theses DVD's on Amazon for $14.

Why would sony buy MGM to help push their blue ray technologies to replace DVD's and provide HD movies to the masses? Read Sony's press release. Analysts say that this was done so Sony could control the market place and HD movie offerings.

I am lucky to have two HD TV's at home. I have to thank Voom because they gave me $500 to buy one of them through their special promotion. I also have D* at home as well. I have converted 6 people to Voom in the last month. 5 of them local to Florida, and 1 in Seattle. One of my friends does NOT have an HD TV, and he went to Voom just for the Dolby Digital 5.1 audio feed, and Voom programming.

Many people have commented on the audio quality as much as the video quality. . .

Perhaps we can call all of these battles. . . But how is a War won? One Battle at a time. . . "How do you eat an elephant? You take small bites. . ."

I hope these thoughts spark some interesting conversation. I am curious to see what others think.

 

[Dvlos]

All the providers are bringing their products to the gate, some have already taken off, but make no mistake, once networks start making a big deal about it, constantly mention how nice HD looks, it's going to fly.

A while in ago in a thread I said it would be cool on MNF Al Michaels did a speal on how great HDTV is and that us HD owners get to see the game on widescreen, DD5.1, at 5 times the sharpness. Then someone posted that this DID happen but only once! Now if ABC made a big deal of it like 5-8 shows this season, by next year half the mobile home parks in America will have an HDTV inside all the way up to the financially "free".

It's addictive, some people stay away from HD because of the cost and the overwhelming number of options. But if my 65 year old non-techinical inlaws constantly bitch about their SD service after having seen my HD a few times, are counting the days until their D* runs out... once your "average Joe" gets a hold of his nice new Only $1,000 new HDTV set and sees HD for the first time, he's not going to want to go back.

This will be the new consumer "war" like Pepsi vs. Coke in the 80's.