Well, that MSNBC link just shows how late to the party that "reporter" is. Even the porn industry has admitted they cannot wield the influence they did back in the VHS vs Beta days. Too many delivery mechanisms for porn today. Still, I believe the rented/purchased disc concept will dominate for several years, because people are familiar with the process. Most still don't want to fool around with downloading internet content to their TV.
Oh c'mon Navy. What point? That both formats currently provide equal quality, and that price - as it always does - may be the deciding factor?
That Blu-ray is outselling HD-DVD by over 2 to 1. As stated before, I believe that title availability will count for more than price, especially with first year buyers, who are accustomed to paying more to be the "first on their block."
That for stand alone, non-gaming machines that the vast majority of consumers will chose, HD DVD has always lead, and continues to lead?
Hardly matters. Total sales matter. There are about 5 times as many devices that can play Blu-ray as can play HD-DVD. And then there's that 2 plus to 1 title sales ratio.
Currently Toshiba is the only company selling HD-DVD players. Several companies sell Blu-ray players, and after a late start, are just now gearing up with different models at different price points. I agree, the stand alone player concept will dominate in the future. I'm just not sure Toshiba will continue to dominate in this area.
Or that sales of HD titles lead for all of 2006?
And that was their last hurrah. Sales since inception, sales YTD, and sales since the week after Xmas '06 are all in favor of Blu-ray, and the gap is growing. That they one time held the lead means nothing, just as Blu-ray's current lead will mean nothing if HD-DVD stages a comeback and out sells Blu-ray.
...with more release titles coming out on HD DVD from now through the end of May than on BD, coupled with $299 HD DVD players, those sales figures are subject to change?
Always subject to change- but will they? Never underestimate Disney. Numbers of titles for sale counts- but which titles those are counts more. I believe the race
could be settled this year.
Or that those current sales figures still account for a drop in the bucket compared to DVD?
That's why it's still a horse race. Things probably need to shake out not long after high def disc sales top a million or 2 a month, or very roughly 10%-20% of the DVD sales rate. Might happen this year. Might not. Certainly will next year.
...neither format is going away anytime soon.
You may be right. Is that a "Dish" soon? :haha
Both might survive, but I doubt it. Right now, I expect HD-DVD to become a niche market like vinyl records- in this country. How could that change? If Toshiba could get another major studio to go exclusive HD-DVD, like Universal is today. But that's not going to happen. Not unless Blu-ray fails for other reasons. So what if Toshiba persuaded Disney and maybe other major studios to release on HD-DVD also? Then they'd have a good chance of dominating. But even that is unlikely, especially for Disney. Disney was firm on their insistence on regional encoding. It would be a
major policy change for them to reverse themselves on that. Probably involving a change in leadership at the top. Their CEO due to retire any time soon?
But $300 for a player, with 5 free movies (& movies that I
WANT) valued at about half that price! Well, it's very tempting. Very. I'm not in a position to grab that offer right now, but even if I was- perhaps I'd still pass. I still expect Blu-ray to "win" and I'd be stuck with an obsolete player of ever diminishing value over the years.
If sales grow significantly for $300 players, you can bet Sony will sell a $300 player too. They'll match the price if they have to, or come close to it, counting on getting a premium for their name. Shucks, hurt me, hurt me.
If the war continues for a few more months, with HD-DVD hanging in there at about 2 to 1 sales or better, and $200 HD-DVD players come out, lot's of people will buy those cheap players. But then they'll regret it later, if the studios stand firmly in their camps, and feel pressed to buy a Blu-ray player. Just so they can get the titles they want to see at home.
Of course, Sony has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory before, and may do so again. Right now, I'd say it's 70-30 that Blu-ray will "win." If Blu-ray ever gets up to outselling HD-DVD titles at 5 to 1, and holds that lead, and at the million titles sold a month rate, then it's probably all over with. Major retailers would likely walk away from HD-DVD, leaving the HD-DVD market to specialty shops.
And so we continue to agree to disagree. It'll be an interesting year.
On edit: Correction. LG also "sorta" sells an HD-DVD player, in their combo unit. So that's 7 companies selling Blu-ray players to "2" companies selling HD-DVD players. Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, and LG - to Toshiba and LG.
