Warner tells BD "NO" again

[vurbano]

December 17th 2007

Warner says "NO Switch to Bluray!" - So Which Studios are REALLY switching?

We've seen the Bluray supporters talking it up all over the web in the last couple of weeks. "Warner switching to Bluray!" the rumour-mongers yelled. Even the head of Lionsgate got caught up in the folly, proclaiming to Business Week that he heard a "rumour" that Warner would be going Bluray-exclusive. Nay! Warner was forced (once again) to make a public statement that the Business Week article (and the studio boss' statement) was false. Warner is not moving to Bluray exclusive. They even issued the statement worldwide!

So what IS actually important to Warner? Well according to the same Business Week article: "Warner isn't talking, but people close to the situation say the studio is waiting to see which group sells more of the new-fangled DVD players this holiday season. "Warner wants one of the two sides to make a commitment to getting this format into as many hands as possible," says a studio executive with knowledge of its thinking. So far Toshiba has eked out a lead." Whereupon the writer grudgingly acknowledges that there are 878,000 dedicated HD DVD players out there, compared to just 370,000 dedicated Bluray players.

So why the rumour-mongering by the Bluray side? Frankly, I opine that it is a desperation effort by Sony and the Bluray side. I feel sorry for the Lionsgate fella, in a way, because I suspect that he was probably told flat-out by someone in the BDA that Warner was looking to switch, and simply got caught for repeating the rumour. One wonders if GCI, or another of the Sony PR companies, was as busy circulating this "news" as they were the Nikki Finke story about Paramount supposedly getting Microsoft money to support HD DVD - a tidbit which was later said to be false.

So WHY would the BDA want to convince Lionsgate that Warner might switch to Bluray? In MY view, there can only be one reason: To try to scare Lionsgate and stop them from switching to a format-neutral position. I have heard some rumblings in the last few weeks that certain BD-exclusive studios, are considering dropping their BD-exclusive positions and supporting BOTH formats equally. Some people in the BDA might consider this a disaster, because it would then mean that buyers of either format could get pretty much all the movies available on their chosen format, and would leave the rest of the format choice down to the STRENGTHS and VALUE of the respective players.

So by spreading rumours in "the biz" that Warner might switch, they could make these BD studios believe that the format war is nearly over, and that going "neutral" would be futile. The longer that the BDA can prevent them from supporting HD DVD, the better.

But seriously, it's been 2 years of these "mind games" already! And here we are with nearly 1 million dedicated HD DVD players in the market, and we are still up to this trickery? Isn't it about time that these studios start releasing to BOTH formats so that the HDM segment can finally take off without consumers being worried about which choice is "correct"? Many people feel that HDM overall will benefit greatly from the BD studios just supporting both format equally, as consumer confidence in the formats would soar.

Meanwhile, in the "back at ya, baby" category, we have heard some very interesting feedback of our own in the last week or two... While we can hardly claim to be "in the biz" or greatly connected to Hollywood, we do end up getting quite a bit of interesting feedback regarding the "format war". Some of it is not very useful, and some of it can be very interesting. This latest information definitely falls into the latter category - VERY interesting. The one caveat about this information, which I must stress, is that the sources are not validated - I don't know them personally, nor have any information about how credible they are. In fact, in one case, the information was sent anonymously from a fake email account to "protect" the identity of the sender.

According to these three sources, there are two Bluray-exclusive studios that are in the process of moving to support HD DVD releases. I won't name the studios until I have better coroboration of the claims of the sources involved, but let's just say these are "big fish" and that it's safe to say that Fox is not one of them. One of them is geared up to make their announcement sometime before the end of January. Another is supposed to start shipping HD DVDs before the end of January.

I really wish I could give you more info at this time, but it just wouldn't be prudent. However, as soon as more concrete information becomes available you can be certain that I would love to be the first to tell you.

There's no question that the "format war" is officially a "stalemate" at this time. Both formats' movies have been selling at very close to the same rates in the last few weeks, with Bluray just holding onto the lead, but it's averaged about 60:40 for the last 2 or 3 months, with some weeks as close as 51:49. This week is predicted to be another close week, with the report due on Friday, December 21st.

Even the head of Sony, Howard Stringer, has admitted that it is a "stalemate". Studios must now recognize that HD DVD is NOT going away. The most logical way forward today is for the studios to support both formats equally and let the consumer decide on their favourite. So far, they have tried to force the consumer's decisions, yet consumers have still been choosing HD DVD.

By supporting both formats, the studios will let consumers know that it is safe for them to pick whichever format they please and still know that they will be able to happily buy HDM releases. This will eliminate the concerns which are preventing so many buyers from adopting either HDM format, and allow the market to grow quickly and strongly.

I look forward to confirmation of these rumours that the BD studios are finally starting to come around.

HD NOW Online - So which Studios are REALLY switching?

 

[riffjim4069]

So far Toshiba has eked out a lead." Whereupon the writer grudgingly acknowledges that there are 878,000 dedicated HD DVD players out there, compared to just 370,000 dedicated Bluray players.

...how convenient for the author to for completely forget about the additional PS3 I ordered over the holidays which, in the case of this particular PS3, will play BD approximately 80% of the time. Heck, my dedicated HD DVD players still share the one HD DVD I purchased (Shrek 3)...still waiting on my 10 free HD DVDs via rebate.

Let see if I got this right...none of my frequently used PS3/BD players count, however both of my dust gathering HD DVD players do?

 

[ONUOsFan]

Since this is from the same site as the obviously pro-HD-DVD article you posted about Warner being "bitten by bluray problems again," I don't give it much credibility.

Once again, I am amazed that someone who posts something like this has the nerve to call out ANYONE else for FUD.

 

[harshness]

...how convenient for the author to for completely forget about the additional PS3 I ordered over the holidays which, in the case of this particular PS3, will play BD approximately 80% of the time.

I think the key element here is that those who went the PS3 route aren't going to be as beholden to the Blu-ray format as someone who made the personal statement of purchasing a dedicated BD player. These PS3 buyers may be viewed as hedging their bets in the event that Blu-ray withers, they'll still have a game machine with some awesome specs (if not software).

 

[Peter Parker]

Why is the Blu Ray rumor mongering any better or worse than the HD DVD rumor mongering on the same subject? The original articels only said that Warners was considerign a switch to one format if sales numbers justified it. Some how the fanboys of both formats took that as assurance that their side would win. Now the articles seem to deny that a decision will be made and somehow the same fanboys call THAT A victory too.

http://www.satelliteguys.us/hd-dvd-blu-ray-war-zone/112632-warner-waiting-till-q1-2008-end-bd.html

 

[ONUOsFan]

I think the key element here is that those who went the PS3 route aren't going to be as beholden to the Blu-ray format as someone who made the personal statement of purchasing a dedicated BD player. These PS3 buyers may be viewed as hedging their bets in the event that Blu-ray withers, they'll still have a game machine with some awesome specs (if not software).

And what about the people who figured their $98 A2 would do a good job upconverting and were hedging their bets that way?

I think his point was just that there's no guarantee that EVERY HD-DVD player purchased is going to correlate directly to X amount of new disc sales, just like there is no guarantee on the other side with PS3. There will be people on both sides that buy a ton and some that don't buy any.

 

[diogen]

This piece could have been worth something if it wasn't written by rdjam from AVS.

This is what he wrote about the HD hack a year ago:

However, the release by "Muslix" of the specific keys for 5 or so titles, which could be considered insider information, and the timing of his "attack" on the HD DVD format, leads me to WONDER about the true intentions of "Muslix".

"Muslix", as he calls himself, is not even the correct spelling. We feel that this means he is attempting to indicate he is domiciled in Europe, when he is likely actually in the US. (It's "Mueslix", son...)

Muslix never released any keys...

Diogen.

 

[nonrev]

If I'm a studio exec I'd be much more interested in dedicated players install rate as oppose to a game console. The proof is in the numbers if you take a chance to break them down. With such a huge BD install lead mostly due to the PS3 but only a 2 to 1 sales lead, studio exec's hire bean counters to sort out the fuzzy math so they can see the real picture. So please all those crying about the PS3 being left out give it a rest. Oh and a considerable portion of that 2 to 1 sales lead came from months of BOGO, and before you start crying that HD DVD does it also it just started in mid December.

Also anybody ever wonder why after Sony dropped the price on the dumbed down version of the PS3 and they started flying off the shelfs we're still at or about 2 to 1 sales lead. So once again those with PS3 stop crying cause the numbers don't show your relivence.

 

[JAG72]

If I'm a studio exec I'd be much more interested in dedicated players install rate as oppose to a game console. The proof is in the numbers if you take a chance to break them down. With such a huge BD install lead mostly due to the PS3 but only a 2 to 1 sales lead, studio exec's hire bean counters to sort out the fuzzy math so they can see the real picture. So please all those crying about the PS3 being left out give it a rest. Oh and a considerable portion of that 2 to 1 sales lead came from months of BOGO, and before you start crying that HD DVD does it also it just started in mid December.

Also anybody ever wonder why after Sony dropped the price on the dumbed down version of the PS3 and they started flying off the shelfs we're still at or about 2 to 1 sales lead. So once again those with PS3 stop crying cause the numbers don't show your relivence.

If the studios don't care about the PS3 and they remove them from the counts it looks even better for Blu-ray IMO.

878,000 HD DVD players compared to just 370,000 dedicated Blu-ray players but yet Blu-ray still has a 2-1 lead in releases. So if the number of players are equal you would have over a 4-1 lead for Blu-ray.

Now if you add the PS3 into the mix and count only 1/2 of them as Blu-ray owners, the numbers don't quite look as good for Sony. I would think that the Red Fud throwers would want the PS3 included and the Blu Fud slingers would want them excluded, if it is all about movie sales numbers and attach rates.

 

[nonrev]

If the studios don't care about the PS3 and they remove them from the counts it looks even better for Blu-ray IMO.

878,000 HD DVD players compared to just 370,000 dedicated Blu-ray players but yet Blu-ray still has a 2-1 lead in releases. So if the number of players are equal you would have over a 4-1 lead for Blu-ray.

Now if you add the PS3 into the mix and count only 1/2 of them as Blu-ray owners, the numbers don't quite look as good for Sony. I would think that the Red Fud throwers would want the PS3 included and the Blu Fud slingers would want them excluded, if it is all about movie sales numbers.

The whole point of my post was attach rate, I guess I should have stated that so everyone would relize that. We all know PS3's buy some disks but not that many per unit, and that means less to the studios, but is is such a huge install lead that even if its 1 disk per unit it'll give them the lead. But the studios don't want 1 disk per unit they want 200 - 300 as with dvd, a PS3 will never give them that type of average up in the hundreds. A dedicated will.

 

[JAG72]

The whole point of my post was attach rate, I guess I should have stated that so everyone would relize that.

I understood you point. I just quoted you becuase of you comment on the Blu crowd crying about the PS3 not being included in the numbers. IF I was them I would want it excluded becuase it shows they have a much higher attach rate. Personally I don't think either format has enough of a attach rate to make a difference right now.

 

[JAG72]

We all know PS3's buy some disks but not that many per unit, and that means less to the studios, but is is such a huge install lead that even if its 1 disk per unit it'll give them the lead. But the studios don't want 1 disk per unit they want 200 - 300 as with dvd, a PS3 will never give them that type of average up in the hundreds. A dedicated will.

Since you added to your post since I quoted you I will continue here. I agree that the studios don't want a 1 disk per unit but they are not going to get the 200 - 300 numbers until the war is over. It would be nice to see how many PS3's were purchased as a dedicated player (I know there is no way of doing this). I purchased mine as a player only as I have my 360 for games.

 

[db2]

:haha I really get a kick out of this part of the article:

The one caveat about this information, which I must stress, is that the sources are not validated - I don't know them personally, nor have any information about how credible they are. In fact, in one case, the information was sent anonymously from a fake email account to "protect" the identity of the sender.

LOL

...on a related note, I also received anonymous information just yesterday that said Sony is considering going HD-DVD exclusive...you just never know!!

 

[nonrev]

I understood you point. I just quoted you becuase of you comment on the Blu crowd crying about the PS3 not being included in the numbers. IF I was them I would want it excluded becuase it shows they have a much higher attach rate. Personally I don't think either format has enough of a attach rate to make a difference right now.

The only flaw in that line of thought is if they want the PS3 excluded then their 2 to 1 sales lead is reversed and then some. So either way the numbers don't add up for BD.

 

[JAG72]

The only flaw in that line of thought is if they want the PS3 excluded then their 2 to 1 sales lead is reversed and then some. So either way the numbers don't add up for BD.

But should you also exclude the HD-DVD add on for the 360? If that is true then the HD-DVD numbers don't add up either. It is all a numbers game and either side can make the numbers look any way they want. That is the bad part of this whole thing. It makes it confusing for the general consumer.

 

[db2]

It is all a numbers game and either side can make the numbers look any way they want.

In this format war???? Nah...

 

[meStevo]

But should you also exclude the HD-DVD add on for the 360? If that is true then the HD-DVD numbers don't add up either. It is all a numbers game and either side can make the numbers look any way they want. That is the bad part of this whole thing. It makes it confusing for the general consumer.

The issue with the numbers game is the ones we have access to are nothing but PR and forum fodder. Short or huge landslide sales advantages (much greater than 2:1) we have no baramoter for 'victory' in the war.

 

[JeremyL]

But should you also exclude the HD-DVD add on for the 360? If that is true then the HD-DVD numbers don't add up either. It is all a numbers game and either side can make the numbers look any way they want. That is the bad part of this whole thing. It makes it confusing for the general consumer.

The HD-DVD add on for the 360 is different than the PS3 situation. The HD-DVD add on can only do one thing - play HD-DVD's. The PS3 has a Blu Ray player built in, but it is primarily for playing PS3 games, and plays Blu Ray Discs as a bonus.

Toshiba excludes the HD-DVD add on from the numbers it releases. I don't agree with this, because the only reason to have it is to play HD-DVD movies.

You can include PS3's in the Blu Ray numbers, but you'll have to do research to qualify those numbers - how many are even hooked up to HDTV's and how many that are hooked up to HDTV's are used to play Blu Ray Discs.

 

[JAG72]

The PS3 has a Blu Ray player built in, but it is primarily for playing PS3 games, and plays Blu Ray Discs as a bonus.

I thought it was the other way around. It is a Blu-ray player that just happens to play games as a bonus. At least that is why I bought it.

Toshiba excludes the HD-DVD add on from the numbers it releases. I don't agree with this, because the only reason to have it is to play HD-DVD movies.

I don't either because it does not show true attachment rate of the format. If that is the only thing you can do with it why not include it.

You can include PS3's in the Blu Ray numbers, but you'll have to do research to qualify those numbers - how many are even hooked up to HDTV's and how many that are hooked up to HDTV's are used to play Blu Ray Discs.

Like I said in previous posts it is all a numbers game. Any format can make the numbers look like they are in the lead. The only true looser is the consumer that is waiting for this stupid thing to end.

 

[BlackHitachi]

The HD-DVD add on for the 360 is different than the PS3 situation. The HD-DVD add on can only do one thing - play HD-DVD's.

Well you can also use it to up convert sd dvd! I do understand what you are saying though.