I would say that 5% is a low #, for that to be correct, the average household would have to have near 7 TV's. (assuming 1/3 of households have Hd).
Non scientific stud, counting my parents/inlaws and 3 closest neighbors (the only ones I know for fact how many TVs). 5 of the 6 have an HD Set, and 2 of those has 2. and there are 13 SD sets. That would put it at 7/20. I know that is probably a higher than exact # as well but I would have to say that there is closer to 15% HD market share out there now, and would guess that it will be close to 50% penetration by the end of the year.
As for the prices on hardware and videos, both will be dropping over time, just look at the pricedrops on the hardware (down 50% or more for both formats), and I remember paying $250 for my first DVD player, and now they are $30.
The Movies cost more but will come down over time as well. as sales increase, the preproduction costs and production costs per unit drop, when that happens so does the price.
And guess what? theres this pesky little thing called inflation, but when you truly factor it in, technology is WAY cheaper today than it was before.
My parents bought a VCR back in 1980 for $1200, it was $75 a year to be a member to rent videos, and if you wanted to buy a movie is was $50 or more.
Now you complain that a HD-DVD players are too expensive at $300 and you pay $30 for a movie.
Heck you take 2 kids and your wife to a movie and you spend $50+, its still a great deal to buy it for home.