It would almost be good for Dish and the customer if they junked all of the mpeg-2 DVRs. The people that upgraded to the Vip series would finally be able to reap the full benefits of Mpeg4 because we wouldn't have anyone with OBSOLETE hardware holding us back, and Dish could really begin a full transition to mpeg4.
The customer would have access to all of the new channels, more disc space, better boxes. The 622 is one of the best CE devices that I have used, certainly miles ahead of the garbage motorola and scientific atlanta boxes. I laugh at my friends that use time warner's sad excuse for a DVR, SD menus and guides are so cool. I really love it when the slow UI can't keep up.
Who knows, but you might actually see a pretty good deal to move to a Vip series if they really are forced to disable the old boxes.
I have a feeling that Dish can pretty much appeal this until Tivo slowly bleeds to death. Switched video, the digital transition, and poorly supported cable cards (mainly cable's way of still leasing their sh*tty boxes) already pretty much gave Tivo the death blow.
Again, no DVR would effectively kill dish, in a matter of weeks. Completely disabling all DVRs is not an option, they would be better served to buy Tivo, and then shut the doors.
Has everyone forgot about the Blackberry mess? Pretty sure they still work.