There is no issue. They will replace them with HD MPEG 4 8psk feeds.
So likely if your getting SD on a tailgater today you will get HD FEEDS.
I can only imagine Directv would put the more popular HD channels on 101 KU as there are less issues with rain fade since everyone who gets KA signals can get KU SIGNALS.
I doubt Directv is going to leave a 32 transponder ku Band satellite which is prime real estate empty or let dish take it over.
Things can only get better as SD goes away. Not worse.
First they got to give all SD customers new equipment. Then going to all mpeg4 8psk just means more channels to offer.
I bet they put conus HD AT 101, and use 99/103 for locals and 4k.
Most important channels to 101
Now just wish they would do something with 110. Its such a waste but better not to give Dish those last 3 remaining transponders at 110
It remains to be seen if they put HD channels on 101, it is quite possible they do but I wouldn't assume that's certain. I also wouldn't assume they keep using 119. The only thing I feel certain about is that they will drop 110, because D5 is reaching end of life and it isn't worth replacing that satellite for only three measley transponders. Even if they drop 110/119 I think it would be five years before Dish can petition the FCC to take over those transponders, plus there's a long standing (and AFAIK still unresolved) dispute over reverse band at 103 with a Canadian company called Ciel that Dish is involved with that may figure into this. They would happily drop 119 if that's the price of keeping reverse band at 103.
They can't do what you're suggesting, and put all HD channels on 101. They won't come close to fitting unless they compress them as much as Dish does with their 'HD lite', and why would Directv want to trade their advantage of superior image quality? What's the point of leaving Ka band at 99/103 free? You're dreaming if you think they will need that room for 4K - we'll be damn lucky to EVER see enough 4K channels to fill up the 50 or so that will fit in the 36 reverse band transponders!
The big question is, what does Directv want to do about people in RVs and boats with built in dishes that only receive 101, especially those who paid thousands for in motion dishes? You can't upgrade those to Slimline, and in fact you can't even buy a tracking Slimline for an RV any price. You can for a boat, but they cost $20,000!
Here are the options as I see them:
1) If keeping 119:
1a) Carry as much HD as possible on 101 (maybe 150 channels or so) and carry international channels @ 95, and SD only channels @ 101/119 in MPEG4 SD on 119. 101 only dishes get a lot fewer channels than today, but at least they're all in HD.
1b) Carry a lot of HD on 101 (maybe 100 channels or so) but instead of 1a any channel currently carried on 101 is still carried on 101 in either HD or MPEG4 SD. 101 only dishes get exactly the same set of channels they do today, with the most popular ones in HD.
1c) Carry MPEG4 SD duplicates of EVERYTHING on 101: all MPEG2 SD channels @ 101, 95, and 119, plus all MPEG4 SD only channels @ 99/103 are carried in MPEG4 SD on 101. They'd find something useful to do with 119 to keep it out of Dish's hands - maybe carry all the HD west coast feeds of channels that have them, since 119 is easier to receive out west and they're the ones most likely to want that, but if they had no LOS to 119 it wouldn't be a show stopper.
2) If dropping 119:
2a) Same as 1a, but everything moving from 95/101/119 is carried on 99/103 instead of 119
2b) Same as 1b, but everything moving from 95/119 is carried on 99/103 of 119
2c) Same as 1c, but they wouldn't have to come up with a use for 119
If I had to guess I'd say 2b or 2c are the most likely, but what do I know? If anyone reading this has any inside information, and you're able to talk about it, please post!
One other factor here are locals. Some markets currently get MPEG2 SD locals via spotbeams from 101 or 119. They will all go away in 2019, so people with 101 only dishes who currently can get their locals will only get network programming if they are able to receive NYC or LA locals via their service address or DNS (or OTA)