2013 MLB Postseason

[DodgerKing]

Yankees...Everyone's favorite whipping post. Post season won't be the same without a Yankee team to root against.

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[Jimbo]

Meh. I'm actually gonna miss the Yankees, and I'm a Red Sox fan. I know this will piss a lot of people off, but the playoffs without them doesn't feel right to me.

I'm glad they are out, however, it doesn't really matter as long as the Tigers got in ... oddly, the Tigers have handled the Yanks in the Post Season regularly.

 

[Jimbo]

Yankees...Everyone's favorite whipping post. Post season won't be the same without a Yankee team to root against.

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At least we get to see teams in the 8 pm prime time slot that deserve to be there, when the Yanks are in it, they get the Prime Time slot regardless of them being worth it or not.

 

[cosmo_kramer]

The fact is, which they all tend to ignore, in baseball HFA does not give a team an advantage at all. This is a simple fact that ever sports writer can choose to ignore by believing what they want to believe, but believing it to be true does not make it true.

The fact that others tend to ignore is that HFA in baseball actually gives you the best advantage to win in all of sports. In what other sport is the home team guaranteed to get a last crack on offense??

Whether or not the numbers end up showing that advantage is inconsequential. Not every team is able to capitalize on it. That's why it's called a Home Field Advantage, not a Home Field Guarantee....

 

[DodgerKing]

The fact that others tend to ignore is that HFA in baseball actually gives you the best advantage to win in all of sports. In what other sport is the home team guaranteed to get a last crack on offense??

Whether or not the numbers end up showing that advantage is inconsequential. Not every team is able to capitalize on it. That's why it's called a Home Field Advantage, not a Home Field Guarantee....

It doesn't give an advantage at all. Home playoff teams are no more likely to win than road teams.

There is no advantage at all. It does nothing to improve the likelihood of winning.

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[king3pj]

It doesn't give an advantage at all. Home playoff teams are no more likely to win than road teams.

There is no advantage at all. It does nothing to improve the likelihood of winning.

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The advantage is slight but it does exist.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/21/sports/la-sp-home-field-advantage-20110722

There have been 84 World Series played since 1924 using the 2-3-2 format in which the team with home-field advantage hosts the first two and last two games, and the home team has won 48 times, or 57%. (Excluded are years in which the travel format was altered because of war and 1994, when there was no World Series because of a strike.) From 1951 to 1980, the team without home-field advantage won 20 of the 30 Series, while 22 of the last 29 winners have been the team with home-field advantage.

"Baseball in general has the lowest home-field advantage of all sports," said Tobias Moskowitz, coauthor of "Scorecasting" and a professor at the University of Chicago. "We don't find that there is any difference in the postseason versus the regular season, once you adjust for the quality of teams."


Even though baseball is the one sport where the dimensions of the field vary in each ballpark, allowing teams to mold their rosters to the idiosyncrasies of their home stadiums, it is also the sport with the lowest historical home-team winning percentage. Over the last three complete seasons, the home team has won 55.5% of the 7,288 games. Over the last century, that figure has hovered around 54%.

 

[DodgerKing]

The advantage is slight but it does exist.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jul/21/sports/la-sp-home-field-advantage-20110722

I have already been through the numbers and posted the results in another thread. This was one of the links I provided. This article isn't statistically accurate.

First it is difficult to compare HFA for WS since these are two completely different leagues in which one league or team may be much more dominate. Add the two different rules of the game for each home field the advantage becomes more prominent. Since record has no bearing on WS HFA, it is not relevant anyway.

The only thing to look at is HFA in the playoffs. Since there are 4 teams making it into the playoffs each team will have a 50% chance of going to the next level and a 25% chance of advancing all of the way to the WS just in random chance alone. If you look at how many #1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds advance it is statistically 25% for all within the margin of error. In fact over the last 10 years more #4 seeds went to the WS than #1 seeds.

Statistically there is no true HFA in the playoffs.

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[king3pj]

I have already been through the numbers and posted the results in another thread. This was one of the links I provided. This article isn't statistically accurate.

First it is difficult to compare HFA for WS since these are two completely different leagues in which one league or team may be much more dominate. Add the two different rules of the game for each home field the advantage becomes more prominent. Since record has no bearing on WS HFA, it is not relevant anyway.

The only thing to look at is HFA in the playoffs. Since there are 4 teams making it into the playoffs each team will have a 50% chance of going to the next level and a 25% chance of advancing all of the way to the WS just in random chance alone. If you look at how many #1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds advance it is statistically 25% for all within the margin of error. In fact over the last 10 years more #4 seeds went to the WS than #1 seeds.

Statistically there is no true HFA in the playoffs.

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Statistically the home team wins in baseball more than 50% of the time so a slight advantage does exist. This is true throughout the history of the MLB in both the regular season and the postseason. This isn't random. Even if you say their statistics weren't correct in the article I posted there are plenty of other sources that show that the home team has a greater than 50% chance to win. From baseball prospectus.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9854

Home-field advantage is one of the greatest puzzles of baseball (and other sports) analysis. Indeed, my colleague Matt Swartz wrote a Burns-esque five-part inquisition into the topic a few months ago. Home-field advantage unquestionably exists. In 2009, the home team won 54.9 percent of all regular season games, and that general range (53-55 percent) has remained remarkably consistent over the years. Seeing that teams play an equal number of home and road games, and that who hosts a regular season game is not determined by the overall quality of the team (as in the NFL playoffs), then the home team should win at a rate close to 50 percent. But HFA persists. Why?

 

[DodgerKing]

Statistically the home team wins in baseball more than 50% of the time so a slight advantage does exist. This is true throughout the history of the MLB in both the regular season and the postseason. This isn't random. Even if you say their statistics weren't correct in the article I posted there are plenty of other sources that show that the home team has a greater than 50% chance to win. From baseball prospectus.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9854

Again, they ignore the playoffs (not counting WS). It is these numbers I am referring to as that is the topic of the discussion, "How important is seeding or playing for HFA in the playoffs?"

In the previous discussion I too mentioned how HFA does play a role in the regular season and how it is much less of a factor in baseball. But in the playoffs since record has been used to determine HFA, there has been no statistical advantage.

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[king3pj]

Again, they ignore the playoffs (not counting WS). It is these numbers I am referring to as that is the topic of the discussion, "How important is seeding or playing for HFA in the playoffs?"

In the previous discussion I too mentioned how HFA does play a role in the regular season and how it is much less of a factor in baseball. But in the playoffs since record has been used to determine HFA, there has been no statistical advantage.

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Ok, so are you saying that the home team wins more in the playoffs because the home teams have the better record and not because they are at home? That may be true but either way I'd rather be the home team because the home team wins more often. I wouldn't care what the reason behind it is. What I know is I want my team to be the home team for as many games as possible.


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[DodgerKing]

Ok, so are you saying that the home team wins more in the playoffs because the home teams have the better record and not because they are at home? That may be true but either way I'd rather be the home team because the home team wins more often. I wouldn't care what the reason behind it is. What I know is I want my team to be the home team for as many games as possible.

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What I am saying is that in the playoffs, not counting the WS, teams with HFA win the same number of series as those without. Playing more games at home does not increase the chance of a team advancing to the next round both statistically and historically.

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[DodgerKing]

If we take the statical regular season home team wining percentage of 54% presented in the links you provided in a best of 5 series, any team will have a 54% chance of winning at home and a 46% chance of winning on the road. The team with HFA will play 3 games at home and 2 on the road. This will give them a 50.8% chance of winning the series, a statistical tie. But in the playoffs the home team wins at about 51%. This will give them a 50.2% chance of winning the series. If you actually look at the number of series wins by teams with HFA it is pretty close to exactly half the time.

In a 7 game series it is even closer to 50%, at 50.1%, using probability only. Looking at the actual results it too is about 50%.

Historically over the last 10 years more wild card teams have gone to the WS than #1 seeds.

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[king3pj]

If we take the statical regular season home team wining percentage of 54% presented in the links you provided in a best of 5 series, any team will have a 54% chance of winning at home and a 46% chance of winning on the road. The team with HFA will play 3 games at home and 2 on the road. This will give them a 50.8% chance of winning the series, a statistical tie. But in the playoffs the home team wins at about 51%. This will give them a 50.2% chance of winning the series. If you actually look at the number of series wins by teams with HFA it is pretty close to exactly half the time.

In a 7 game series it is even closer to 50%, at 50.1%, using probability only. Looking at the actual results it too is about 50%.

Historically over the last 10 years more wild card teams have gone to the WS than #1 seeds.

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That makes sense when you consider that the team with HFA only gets 1 more home game and that only happens if the series goes all the way to 5 games. The teams playing at home still have a slightly better chance to win but when you spread the odds out over the entire series with the team with HFA getting 1 extra home game at most the advantage shrinks. I understand what you are saying now.


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[DodgerKing]

That makes sense when you consider that the team with HFA only gets 1 more home game and that only happens if the series goes all the way to 5 games. The teams playing at home still have a slightly better chance to win but when you spread the odds out over the entire series with the team with HFA getting 1 extra home game at most the advantage shrinks. I understand what you are saying now.


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Yes, you would have to use the binomial theorem in order to calculate the probability of a team with HFA winning in 3, 4, or 5 games for a 5 game series or winning in 4, 5, 6, 0r 7 games for a 7 game series for a more accurate calculation.

 

[cosmo_kramer]

Here's an interesting find on boston.com:

Here's a statistic that captures the consistency, depth, relatively good health, talent and chemistry of the Red Sox this season:

They will finish the regular season without a four-game losing streak. That hasn't been done in the majors since the 2005 St. Louis Cardinals.

 

[BillD1984]

Here's an interesting find on boston.com:

Here's a statistic that captures the consistency, depth, relatively good health, talent and chemistry of the Red Sox this season:

They will finish the regular season without a four-game losing streak. That hasn't been done in the majors since the 2005 St. Louis Cardinals.

I knew that they haven't had any long losing streaks, but I didn't realize it was THAT good statistically! Two other reasons for this stat: strong and consistent starting pitching top to bottom, and late inning clutch hitting.

 

[Jimbo]

The Tigers had 2, 4 game losing streaks in the first half, but none in the 2nd half.

 

[KCK_Halo]

The Dodgers will face the Braves in Round 1. I am supporting the Dodgers in the post season as I feel it is my civic duty as an Angeleno and I wish them well. However, I think they will wind up being over matched by Atlanta. Their season has been so good all the way thru and they seem much stronger coming into the playoffs the do the Dodgers.

 

[BillD1984]

Wildcard times are set:

Tuesday- NL Wildcard- Cincinnati at Pittsburgh- 8:00pm ET (TBS)
Wednesday- AL Wildcard- TB/TEX at Cleveland- 8:00pm ET (TBS)

 

[Jimbo]

Wildcard times are set:

Tuesday- NL Wildcard- Cincinnati at Pittsburgh- 8:00pm ET (TBS)
Wednesday- AL Wildcard- TB/TEX at Cleveland- 8:00pm ET (TBS)

At least they didn't decide to put them on at the same time and DAY ... that would be typical of MLB.