AT&T Jan 30 8k

[nelson61]

The next transition will be the locals consolidating their local news and management to get rid of the multiple talking heads and ad departments.
Something like you see in some markets today.

 

[slice1900]

What really matters isn't a switch from cable/satellite to IP that's still in the same MVPD format with a bunch of live channels. Satellite will slowly decline and eventually end because it won't be worth the cost of replacing Directv's satellites when they begin to run out of fuel in ten years ago - probably sooner for Dish. Cable requires the same infrastructure for an internet only customer and an internet and TV customer so there aren't any provider savings to be had there at all but cable companies will go "all IP" because dividing their cable bandwidth up into 6 MHz channels is incredibly inefficient compared to DOCSIS 3.x which uses 192 MHz wide channels - effectively 40% more efficient without the wasted "guard bands" on the channel edges.

The cost of content is the same whether delivered by cable, by satellite or via IP if it is the same live channel model. People switching from Directv to Directv Now or Comcast to Sling may affect the profit of individual MVPDs but the content owners are still making money for whatever is in the packages people are subscribing to. They don't care how it is delivered, they get paid either way. For this reason they don't really consider someone getting Sling or Directv Now as a cord cutter - those customers still subscribe to a traditional MVPD, it is just delivered in a different manner.

What REALLY matters are people who leave that live channel model behind entirely. They are the ones who will affect the content owners bottom line, especially ESPN's. The problem they will need to solve in that post-MVPD world is account sharing. You can't really share a cable subscription with a friend and while it is possible with satellite it probably isn't too common or Directv/Dish would have taken obvious technical measures against it (tying receivers to a particular dish, for example) It is all too easy to account share with streaming, and it will be hard enough for content owners preserve revenue in a streaming world without every other "customer" actually being 2 or 3 customers living in different locations.

So far the streaming world has mostly ignored it, worrying more about growth than misuse, but a few years down the road they are going to start cracking down on it. There would be simple technical measures, like giving people a "dongle" they need to keep connected to their home network to authenticate their streams (or streams from any mobile devices that have been on the same local network in the past week) as the authorized user.

 

[nelson61]

From Seeking Alpha.

"AT&T has total assets of $531 billion and of that 58%, or $310 billion is in the form of goodwill and intangible assets"



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[Jimbo]

Their problem is -. It appears their customers are no longer "sticky" after they drop satellite.

Once they have internet piped in, their friends at coffee break tell them about sling ot roku or YouTube TV or whatever.

The cost and ease of changing to or from those services is zip .
So they bounce around when they see something they might like better than Now.

It is a blood war and anyone's guess which will survive.

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This is the Short Attention Span world we now live in ...
You had to know this was going to happen when these streaming services have no commitment at all ...

 

[Jimbo]

What really matters isn't a switch from cable/satellite to IP that's still in the same MVPD format with a bunch of live channels. Satellite will slowly decline and eventually end because it won't be worth the cost of replacing Directv's satellites when they begin to run out of fuel in ten years ago - probably sooner for Dish. Cable requires the same infrastructure for an internet only customer and an internet and TV customer so there aren't any provider savings to be had there at all but cable companies will go "all IP" because dividing their cable bandwidth up into 6 MHz channels is incredibly inefficient compared to DOCSIS 3.x which uses 192 MHz wide channels - effectively 40% more efficient without the wasted "guard bands" on the channel edges.

The cost of content is the same whether delivered by cable, by satellite or via IP if it is the same live channel model. People switching from Directv to Directv Now or Comcast to Sling may affect the profit of individual MVPDs but the content owners are still making money for whatever is in the packages people are subscribing to. They don't care how it is delivered, they get paid either way. For this reason they don't really consider someone getting Sling or Directv Now as a cord cutter - those customers still subscribe to a traditional MVPD, it is just delivered in a different manner.

What REALLY matters are people who leave that live channel model behind entirely. They are the ones who will affect the content owners bottom line, especially ESPN's. The problem they will need to solve in that post-MVPD world is account sharing. You can't really share a cable subscription with a friend and while it is possible with satellite it probably isn't too common or Directv/Dish would have taken obvious technical measures against it (tying receivers to a particular dish, for example) It is all too easy to account share with streaming, and it will be hard enough for content owners preserve revenue in a streaming world without every other "customer" actually being 2 or 3 customers living in different locations.

So far the streaming world has mostly ignored it, worrying more about growth than misuse, but a few years down the road they are going to start cracking down on it. There would be simple technical measures, like giving people a "dongle" they need to keep connected to their home network to authenticate their streams (or streams from any mobile devices that have been on the same local network in the past week) as the authorized user.

Only problem with the dongle idea or others you mentioned, is IF/When they start to crack down, people will just move on to the next option .... unless it happens with ALL companies at the same time, its gonna be hard to implement.

 

[Jimbo]

From Seeking Alpha.

"AT&T has total assets of $531 billion and of that 58%, or $310 billion is in the form of goodwill and intangible assets"



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Wish I had some of that "GOODWILL " ...

 

[Joe The Dragon]

The problem with Directv now is that they ended the 3 month for $10 offer.

#3 Directv and especially Dish are to blame here for offering the content online. Of all companies who is NOT a traditional internet service provider, should not be offering content online.

The writing is on the wall. If traditional pay tv is going to survive, the major pay Tv providers that also provide internet (AT&T, Spectrum, Comcast) need to get together and adjust their internet packages to address streaming video.

I for one are sick of seeing larger and larger discounts for new customers to hide the yearly price increases. The sports channels has really put the pricing out of hand.

Another interesting thing is that the lack of traditional pay Tv is going to kill the outrageous salaries for professional athletes.

If people can save $10-$15 getting rid of ESPN and their regional sports network they will drop it in a heartbeat

The own content and some of it high cost local sports also some may just cap you hard? and what if Disney wanted to try that forced bundles for intent-net?

 

[NashGuy]

What really matters isn't a switch from cable/satellite to IP that's still in the same MVPD format with a bunch of live channels. Satellite will slowly decline and eventually end because it won't be worth the cost of replacing Directv's satellites when they begin to run out of fuel in ten years ago - probably sooner for Dish. Cable requires the same infrastructure for an internet only customer and an internet and TV customer so there aren't any provider savings to be had there at all but cable companies will go "all IP" because dividing their cable bandwidth up into 6 MHz channels is incredibly inefficient compared to DOCSIS 3.x which uses 192 MHz wide channels - effectively 40% more efficient without the wasted "guard bands" on the channel edges.

The cost of content is the same whether delivered by cable, by satellite or via IP if it is the same live channel model. People switching from Directv to Directv Now or Comcast to Sling may affect the profit of individual MVPDs but the content owners are still making money for whatever is in the packages people are subscribing to. They don't care how it is delivered, they get paid either way. For this reason they don't really consider someone getting Sling or Directv Now as a cord cutter - those customers still subscribe to a traditional MVPD, it is just delivered in a different manner.

What REALLY matters are people who leave that live channel model behind entirely. They are the ones who will affect the content owners bottom line, especially ESPN's. The problem they will need to solve in that post-MVPD world is account sharing. You can't really share a cable subscription with a friend and while it is possible with satellite it probably isn't too common or Directv/Dish would have taken obvious technical measures against it (tying receivers to a particular dish, for example) It is all too easy to account share with streaming, and it will be hard enough for content owners preserve revenue in a streaming world without every other "customer" actually being 2 or 3 customers living in different locations.

So far the streaming world has mostly ignored it, worrying more about growth than misuse, but a few years down the road they are going to start cracking down on it. There would be simple technical measures, like giving people a "dongle" they need to keep connected to their home network to authenticate their streams (or streams from any mobile devices that have been on the same local network in the past week) as the authorized user.

I doubt that any of the OTT services will resort to issuing their own hardware to deal with the problem of account sharing (assuming they at some point see it as a problem). It could probably be addressed effectively enough, should they choose, through software/big data/AI:

Creepy Crackdown On Netflix Password Sharing May Be Coming Soon

Apart from that, yep, I agree with what you're saying. The big shift folks should think about isn't in how traditional cable channel packages (MVPDs) are distributed, going from cable and satellite to OTT apps (e.g. DTV Now, Sling TV, etc.). The big shift is to the "post-MVPD world," as you put it, in which content is distributed direct from the content owners to the customers via their own OTT apps.

It will be very interesting to see to what extent AT&T/WarnerMedia believes in that shift from MVPD to DTC (direct-to-consumer) when they launch their forthcoming DTC OTT service this fall. Will they be willing to cannibalize subscriptions to their traditional cable channels by, say, including new episodes of series from TBS, TNT, Cartoon Network and TruTV on the DTC service at the same time they premiere on the linear channels (the way HBO Now works) or the next day (the way Hulu works with shows from ABC, NBC and Fox)? Will they include a live stream of the CNN channels in this new service? How about including live streams of sports that air on TNT and TBS?

Or, on the other hand, will AT&T try to make this new service mainly complementary to their basic cable channels, so that if you really want all the current stuff that they have to offer, you'd need both an MVPD package plus this new service?

 

[slice1900]

Only problem with the dongle idea or others you mentioned, is IF/When they start to crack down, people will just move on to the next option .... unless it happens with ALL companies at the same time, its gonna be hard to implement.

The dongle would have to be a contractual mandate from content owners. Even if streaming companies decide they are willing to tolerate some account sharing if they believe it helps keep their customers around, the content owners might not want to give up that revenue. They are why we have HDCP, it was not the MVPDs who created it or began enforcing its use.

 

[nelson61]

the cell phone man running at&t was putting his thumb on the HBO boss.

The HBO boss is the guy creative talent really likes. He hugs, flatters, and picks up talent/shows viewers really like.

The HBO guy quit today.

I'm thinking at&t thinks entertainment is just another accounting type business line.

Not a good sign for their future.

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