Blu-Ray 7 to 3 over HD-DVD for 2007?

[JoeSp]

This is a Nielsen Video Scan for HD Discs tracking results thru March 18th as put together by Sony. So read with that in mind. However, alot of information here so be patient and click thru:

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/files/sonyhdreport031807.zip

If it is true that Blu-Ray is holding a 7 to 3 lead in 2007 over HD-DVD what in the world can the HD-DVD camp do to overcome this? Maybe some of the releases currently announced by the HD-DVD camp can help but their are some major blockbusters coming from the Blu-Ray camp too.

 

[teachsac]

OK, here we go. This is not a slam on either format.

1. Overall sales of titles are not that great, although both formats sales have surpassed DVD sales when it was released. The attach rate for BD is not that high, roughly .3-.5 titles based on number of units sold and total number of disks sold. That is not a good sign.

2. 7:3 ratio why? HDDVD didn't release anything for a few months. COuld be several factors, After Christmas sales are usually not that great. COuld be bad planning on Studio's part. BD-J holding up Warner titles.

3. Both formats have great titles coming out. In my predictions section, I'll break it down more.

4. The winning Studio is Warner. They have sold 30% of all HD disks sold (almost 500,000). Runner up would have to be Universal followed closely by Sony. SOny only follows closely because of Casino Royale. Fifth Element and Underworld both are in the top 10 for total sales, but they were two of the very few movies available when Blu-Ray was released last June. Fifth Element is also unversally regarded as the worst HD transfer available.

5. You are giving too much credit to Disney/BVHE. The only two movies that have done well are The Prestige (20K copies) and The Guardian (10K copies). Neither of which are family oriented. Chicken Little, Sky High, The Wild, Finding Neverland (awesome movie) have all done poorly.

POC and Cars will do well, by HD sales standards, but I do not believe they will be anywhere close to what you said months ago. They will not beat out what Casino Royale has done. Here's why. Families. Speaking as someone who has children, families will generally not go out and replace their titles, particulary those that have not been out that long. Better things to do with their money. POC has a broader audience than Cars/incredibles/etc so it will do better than any of these titles. In all honesty, Upconverted CG/animation really does not look significantly worse.

The first movie that might really bring the Disney families into the fold will be "Meet the Robinsons". It has never been released. Families that do have a NexGen player will be more likely to go for the BD version.

An interesting wish to test Disney's real power is....... "Song of the South". Disney announced that they will be releasing this title to DVD for the FIRST TIME EVER. It was previously ONLY released on VHS in the UK and has never been released in the states. They have not said if they plan on doing Blu-Ray with this title though.

6. Next let's talk about Box Office Gross: The top 3 are Paramount, Disney, and Universal respectively. Paramount is neutral, Disney is BD exclusive, and Universal is HD-DVD exclusive. Total studio titles available to both camps is even due to Warner and Universal having the two largest video libraries, which brings it down to taste.

This war is far from over, and I'm honestly getting tired of the weekly "My dad can beat up your dad" posts. Neither camp has gained the 2 things necessary to defeat the other, price/value and studio support. HDDVD has price and BD has sheer number of studios. Available titles being equal between the two camps. Price DOES matter. This is basic business 101. Whichever camp outright wins that, then the remaining studios will follow (Notice no prediction). Otherwise both formats will coexist.

S~

 

[navychop]

GREAT link! LOT'S of info!

Can't wait to see second quarter results. Now where's that Time Machine?

 

[JoeSp]

Teachsac, I think what you are missing is momentum. Those numbers include 2006. When looking at 2007 the numbers definately move in BD's favor sustantially. What ever the reason is moot, BD sales are increasing weekly and HD-DVD sales are decreasing weekly. If the HD-DVD camp does not have anything on the market to buy then that is their problem. It was the BD's camp problem when Sony released some very bad BDs in August and September and Samsung delievered a defective BD player. And that decision cost the BD camp dearly. However, the BD camp has been making up for lost time very well. What has happened to HD-DVD is their own doing. Maybe the second quarter with new releases and a lower price point from Toshiba willl will the HD-DVD camp restart their momentum because right now they have none and the numbers bear that out.

On another subject you stated that Universal is a top goss box office studio? Is this from a recent income report? Can you post something that proves that? Maybe in the 70's and 80's Universal was top dog but not any more. Seems that last year Universal got their legs cut out from under them and will not be doing any big money titles anytime soon. How can that happen if you are a top box office studio?

Also, you seem to be arguing about numbers but you don't really state reasons. Warner is number 1 in studio production of all HD discs because they produce for both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. Warner's lastest hit Departed sold 38,993 on BD and 23,454 on HD-DVD for a 1.66 to 1 ratio. This only shows the momentum that BD currently has over HD-DVD. Remember, HD-DVD has been sold since April 2006 and BD since August 2006. With all the bad press that BD got in the begining you would think that HD-DVD would be way ahead of BD. And until December they were. Since then the momentum has swung heavily in BD's favor and that is what these numbers spell out.

Another thing, this is not a "My daddy can beat up your daddy" post. This is the first time I have been able to post numbers from Nielsen on sales of HD discs. Maybe you don't like those numbers but these numbers don't lie. They show that BD is viable and leading in sales and continues to expand on a weekly basis while HD-DVD does not. If you don't like the post then find another sales tracking agency that post the real numbers that will say that Nielsen is lying. But my guess is you won't because Nielsen's numbers are what everyone in the industry (including retailers) looks at. This is not a death knell for HD-DVD but it better be a wake-up call because this can not continue if HD-DVD wants to be around next year.

 

[teachsac]

Teachsac, I think what you are missing is momentum. Those numbers include 2006. When looking at 2007 the numbers definately move in BD's favor sustantially. What ever the reason is moot, BD sales are increasing weekly and HD-DVD sales are decreasing weekly. If the HD-DVD camp does not have anything on the market to buy then that is their problem. It was the BD's camp problem when Sony released some very bad BDs in August and September and Samsung delievered a defective BD player. And that decision cost the BD camp dearly. However, the BD camp and a has been making up for lost time very well. What has happened to HD-DVD is their own doing. Maybe the second quarter with new releases and a lower price point from the HD-DVD camp will restart their momentum because right now they have none and the numbers bear that out.

Granted. BD has momentum now. They are selling more movies. I never said they didn't/weren't. They have outsold HDDVD since 12/24. But as HDDVD found out, momentum can change in a heartbeat. HDDVD didn't put anything out for two months. As for sales being down? That is not really what the graphs show. It shows trends. If you look at the charts, they show ups and downs over the previous weeks. This is based on sales yes, but you have to put something out in order to sell it. There was a week in March where neither had any new releases and sales were down from the previous week. The trend (ups and downs) is the same for both formats with BD hitting a peak on the 18th with the release of Casino Royale.

Like I said. HDDVD for whatever reason, didn't plan for the beginning of the year. It is their problem. Perhaps they learned. The rest of the year will be interesting. There are excellent titles available for both formats.

Like I've also said, I own both formats and am neutral, NO SPIN. I buy the movies I like regardless of the format. It just so happens the my HDDVD collection outnumbers my BR collection by 6:4. However, HDDVD is by no means dead. They are going with price and quality and a very good video library. Universal has the second largest movie library second only to Warner (who is the only winner of this war). They have 30% of the total High definition disk sales.

S~

 

[CochiseGuy]

This is a Nielsen Video Scan for HD Discs tracking results thru March 18th as put together by Sony. So read with that in mind. However, alot of information here so be patient and click thru:

As much as I distrust ANYTHING Sony claims or reports, I doubt if even Sony would fudge Nielson's numbers; too easy to dispute.

I gotta admit those numbers were a little scary, until I realized a couple of things:

1- Sales reports are up through March 18.
2- Those are actual retail sales, and do not include any pre-orders, just sales of titles already released.
3- Sales figures don't include Wal-Mart. Everyone knows most HD DVD owners buy their disks at Wal-Mart. Just kidding on #3.

Well, everyone should know that I'm one of the biggest HD DVD supporters here. Jan. - March was the biggest drought of HD DVD buying for me; I just bought two during the whole first 3 months - The Departed & Babel. I rented Poseidon & Clerks II. HD DVD had a total of 23 releases Jan. 1 thru March 18. Blu-ray had 59 releases during the same period, with top selling titles of Crank, The Prestige, Casino Royal, and The Departed & Babel (also available in HD DVD). I'm surprised Blu-ray didn't lead 10 to 3 or higher during that period.

So, no, Sony didn't "fudge" the Nielson numbers, they just picked the best possible time period to highlight Blu-ray sales successes.

As I've said in several posts, with the heavy release schedule in late May for HD DVD and the new lower pricing on HD DVD players, the Nielson numbers reported in June will tell the story. Obviously, I'm hoping for improvement for HD DVD.

In the meantime, the chart below from eProductwars shows the sales rankings of the Top 100 Products on Amazon.com for the two formats, from March 9 through today. It shows a significant narrowing of the gap for HD DVD since early March. :up

 

[teachsac]

On another subject you stated that Universal is a top goss box office studio? Is this from a recent income report? Can you post something that proves that? Maybe in the 70's and 80's Universal was top dog but not any more. Seems that last year Universal got their legs cut out from under them and will not be doing any big money titles anytime soon. How can that happen if you are a top box office studio?

Ummmm Dude, The numbers are from your own report that you posted. p.12

#1 Paramount #2 Disney #3 universal

 

[teachsac]

Another thing, this is not a "My daddy can beat up your daddy" post. This is the first time I have been able to post numbers from Nielsen on sales of HD discs. Maybe you don't like those numbers but these numbers don't lie. They show that BD is viable and leading in sales and continues to expand on a weekly basis while HD-DVD does not. If you don't like the post then find another sales tracking agency that post the real numbers that will say that Nielsen is lying. But my guess is you won't because Nielsen's numbers are what everyone in the industry (including retailers) looks at. This is not a death knell for HD-DVD but it better be a wake-up call because this can not continue if HD-DVD wants to be around next year.

Not directed towards you, just a general statement about the topics posted every single week both here and elsewhere. Didn't like them when HDDVD was leading and don't care for them now.

Ummm I don't remeber saying anything about the numbers being inaccurate or a lie either. I do note that Weinstein was left off the HDDVD side (p.3), though. Nothing in my posts said anything about BD not leading sales or having a good year, either. They have a done a nice job coming back and have had an excellent first quarter. I have a lot of BD titles and will be purchasing more in the future.

 

[teachsac]

Also, you seem to be arguing about numbers but you don't really state reasons. Warner is number 1 in studio production of all HD discs because they produce for both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. Warner's lastest hit Departed sold 38,993 on BD and 23,454 on HD-DVD for a 1.66 to 1 ratio. This only shows the momentum that BD currently has over HD-DVD. Remember, HD-DVD has been sold since April 2006 and BD since August 2006. With all the bad press that BD got in the begining you would think that HD-DVD would be way ahead of BD. And until December they were. Since then the momentum has swung heavily in BD's favor and that is what these numbers spell out.

Next, My posts aren't knocking the momentum of BD. My Warner statement shows the power of neutrality. For a studio to have 30% of all High Definition disk sales is pretty impressive. How many more disks would Universal, Disney, and Fox sell if they were neutral? Let the buyer decide which format they want.

 

[JoeSp]

Only problem with that is that the consumer will never decide. It will be up to the retailiers and studios. If Departed and Superman Returns is any indication (both released for both formats same day) then there is not enough of a differance for one to win. In order for either to survive one must die. I do not believe both formats could survive as the studios and the retailers would not go for it for very long. Maybe that THD discs is the answer -- who knows -- but there are alot of folks on the fench who are not going to spend their money until there is a clear winner and right now there is not one.

 

[vurbano]

It wont be decided until J6P jumps in.

 

[GeorgeLV]

It wont be decided until J6P jumps in.

Which is why Sony conveniently has already sold the Blu-ray players to J6P. Once they want HD discs they just look at the sticker on the package and they find out the PS3 they already have is a Blu-ray player. Microsoft not building HD-DVD into the Xbox 360 was the death of the HD-DVD format.

 

[r.jones1116]

Which is why Sony conveniently has already sold the Blu-ray players to J6P. Once they want HD discs they just look at the sticker on the package and they find out the PS3 they already have is a Blu-ray player. Microsoft not building HD-DVD into the Xbox 360 was the death of the HD-DVD format.

That Bill Gates can be so misguided at times. He could easily be a trillionaire if he would just go with his gut feeling

 

[Hoopnoop]

I just noticed this string. This is the most informative report I've seen so far though certainly biased towards Sony. But there's some very interesting data here.

I totally agree with teachsac's comments -- I think he's given some of the most useful observations thus far and avoided the biased points of view that tend to dominate this forum. Certainly, a good argument can be made that BD is currently in the lead and has the advantage in terms of box office sales of upcoming releases. However, given the recent HD DVD player price drops I would still argue that they are in the better position to hit the mass market, perhaps by the end of the year. IMHO, we are still in round 3 of a 15 round fight. The real fighting is yet to come.

 

[navychop]

But an early knockout would be best for all. Buyer hesitancy would drop. They could start selling tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of players each month, driving down prices and increasing features.

I'd love to see the war over by Xmas. But if Blu-ray can't hit and hold at least a 3 to 1 sales ratio over HD-DVD, it won't end this year.

Those Chinese manufacturers won't be just standing by. They'll produce lower cost players for either or both formats. Just maybe not this year. Unless, of course, as someone so artfully put it, "Sony gets a whiff of gunpowder and a sore foot." Picture that scenario- Sony prevents, rather than encourages, cheap players from coming to market. That would yield the field to HD-DVD, with Sony once again demonstrating their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[navychop]

9 to 2, per this, for the week Casino Royale came out. It goes on to say "...as of March 18, VideoScan put the cumulative number of Blu-ray titles sold since the format's inception at 844,000 units, versus HD DVD at 708,600."

And then the deflation: "...a very steep drop-off for titles outside of that top rung, with even discs among the top-ten best sellers that week moving fewer than 1000 units apiece..." and "...some titles are listed as selling fewer than 200 units since inception..."

Closing with "...still a sobering reminder that both formats still have a long way to go in their shared quest to supplant standard-def DVD."

 

[JoeSp]

I just noticed this string. This is the most informative report I've seen so far though certainly biased towards Sony. But there's some very interesting data here.

And how is a Nielsen Sales Report bias towards Sony? They are not even in the top two of HD discs providers. This report is actual sales of HD discs since the very begining so if you feel the report is bias please explain.

On your other point of lower priced HD-DVD players -- this is a great move by Toshiba if it works. They can not allow the BD camp to pull away in sales as they have the last three months and must do something to stem the bleeding and low cost players is a great way. If this works maybe Sony will drop the price on their new BD standalone or maybe someone like LG will hit the market with a $300 unit. Competition always favors the consumer!

 

[dnyce]

PS3 makes all the difference

This is simple math. Forget how many movies were sold, what studios, which movies it means little to nothing. To buy a Blu Ray movie you need a Blu Ray player. To buy a HD DVD movie you need a player. The key is how many players are being sold.
I know for a fact over a million people own a Blu Ray player thanks to PS3 I'm willing to bet HD DVD players are less than half of that number since right after the Holidays I read their were only 175,000 sold. I'd say that is a pretty big head start. The War is not over, but the Blu Ray camp has HD DVD surrounded in a elevated position. It's only a matter of time...

 

[navychop]

I've seen estimates that there are 5 times as many devices capable of playing Blu-ray as HD-DVD. But most of those are PS3s, and not all PS3 owners buy Blu-ray movies. So far. But enough do, so that Blu-ray outsells HD-DVD titles by over 2 to 1.

We'll see if that continues.

A million a month, baby, talk to me then.

 

[teamerickson]

This is simple math. Forget how many movies were sold, what studios, which movies it means little to nothing. To buy a Blu Ray movie you need a Blu Ray player. To buy a HD DVD movie you need a player. The key is how many players are being sold.
I know for a fact over a million people own a Blu Ray player thanks to PS3 I'm willing to bet HD DVD players are less than half of that number since right after the Holidays I read their were only 175,000 sold. I'd say that is a pretty big head start. The War is not over, but the Blu Ray camp has HD DVD surrounded in a elevated position. It's only a matter of time...

There are over 470,000 HD DVD players in American homes. This has been disused on this forum. Since you are way off on such an important figure your mathematical formula is invalid and thus your whole statement is invalid.