If Toshiba is reporting 175,000 HD-DVD players sold thru the end of 2006 and you had a respectable 55,000 360 HD-DVD drives sold then you get about 230,000 HD-DVD players sold in North America. Sony says they have delivered 1,000,000 PS3s to North America and given that there are some in the stores lets say they have only sold about 75%.
(I am trying to be very conservative here) so now you have 750,000 PS3s with BluRay and maybe another (conservative here again) 50,000 standalone BluRay players for a total of 800,000 BluRay players to 230,000 HD-DVD players. There is no way HD-DVD can outsell BluRay on movie releases. The numbers are just not there. This is why BluRay passed up HD-DVD on movie sales by the end of December.
Maybe when the Chinese HD-DVD player releases here in the US the price will be low enough to get the mass market buying...however, when March gets here and if Sony actually releases in Europe with the titles due out for March and April you are going to see a hugh surge in PS3 sales. This dual format 'war' is not going anywhere real fast.