Blu-ray to surpass DVD in 3 years

[navychop]

Now that they've beaten HD-DVD , the Blu-ray Disc Association has proclaimed it will supplant standard DVDs in 3 years. See this story.

The story also states that "The HD DVD camp .... claims that sales of movie titles are still level. Film studio 20th Century Fox, which supports Blu-ray, said weekly Blu-ray film sales are actually three times higher than HD DVD." There was also a rather pathetic comment that consumers should buy HD-DVD because small regional film houses couldn't afford to publish on Blu-ray (yet).

Interesting that they said "level" - not "equal" or even "even." Funny language, English- you can interpret "level" as meaning their sales of HD-DVD titles are level, as in, not declining. Or you might get the idea that they are saying they're selling as many titles as Blu-ray- but that's NOT what the words literally mean.

The article also goes on to state that after the PS3 is introduced in Europe, Blu-ray titles will start to sell. Maybe then Blu-ray title sales in Europe will exceed HD-DVD sales, just as happened in the United States.

The article also states that 5.2 million Blu-ray titles have been sold to date.

 

[JoeSp]

Navychop, is it possible that what HD-DVD is saying is that if they get say 35,000 sales for a HD-DVD release in October they are still getting the same numbers on a new release now. That would make it level -- not growning -- but not declining.

However, in a format war if you are not growing - you are losing. I also expect the PS3 introduction in Europe to change that market's landscape because for right now Europe is the only market where HD-DVD is actually growing. Let's check back in 2 months and see how the European HD movie market is doing.

 

[CochiseGuy]

Now that they've beaten HD-DVD , the Blu-ray Disc Association has proclaimed it will supplant standard DVDs in 3 years. See this story.

The story also states that "The HD DVD camp .... claims that sales of movie titles are still level. Film studio 20th Century Fox, which supports Blu-ray, said weekly Blu-ray film sales are actually three times higher than HD DVD." There was also a rather pathetic comment that consumers should buy HD-DVD because small regional film houses couldn't afford to publish on Blu-ray (yet).

Interesting that they said "level" - not "equal" or even "even." Funny language, English- you can interpret "level" as meaning their sales of HD-DVD titles are level, as in, not declining. Or you might get the idea that they are saying they're selling as many titles as Blu-ray- but that's NOT what the words literally mean.

The article also goes on to state that after the PS3 is introduced in Europe, Blu-ray titles will start to sell. Maybe then Blu-ray title sales in Europe will exceed HD-DVD sales, just as happened in the United States.

The article also states that 5.2 million Blu-ray titles have been sold to date.

Yeah, I saw that & thought about posting it here; I thought it was pretty funny. Those PR guys are usually pretty full of B.S.

Even "Alison Casey, who analyzes consumer trends for London-based Understanding & Solutions" thought it was pretty ridiculous claim. You remember him - he was the one who claimed "Retailers will pull the plug on HD DVD by next year? So, I assume the Blu-ray fans must think he's a pretty reliable source. Here's what he had to say about Blu-ray replacing DVD in 3 years:

"It would be our view that standard DVD is not going to disappear overnight," Casey said. "Just because there's a new format doesn't mean that the old format will disappear." Casey predicted that many consumers will make the transition to high definition when their current equipment breaks down and needs to be replaced. "Consumers will upgrade," she said, "but that will take time. Within five years, about a third will be high-def, but the rest will be still be standard."

As to the sales figures, this same article states:

According to industry reports, Blu-ray movie titles outsold HD DVD titles by two to one in the first two months of 2007.

In mid-February, when the Oscar-winning film "The Departed" was released in both formats, the Blu-ray version sold 20,000 copies to the HD DVD's 13,000.

So, yep, congrats to Blu-ray for finally taking a lead for the last 2 months, after trailing badly for the previous 8 months. With almost double the number of releases, Blu-ray outsold HD DVD 2 to 1, for total sales. But, for a single top selling title available available in both format (The Departed), it drops to 2 to 1.3. Still leading, though - for now.

Meanwhile, it seems PS3 sales are tanking?

Nintendo Wii top-selling game console

Thu Mar 15, 9:39 PM ET

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Nintendo Co. Ltd.'s Wii was the best-selling video game console in the United States in February, console makers said on Thursday, citing sales results from market research firm NPD.

Consumers bought 335,000 Wii consoles and 127,000 of Sony Corp.'s PlayStation 3 consoles in February. Both systems debuted in November, and the Wii is priced at $250, compared with the $600 top-end version of the PS3.

Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360, which came out in November 2005, sold 228,000 units, making it the second-biggest selling console in February.

Ouch! That must hurt! The 360 has been out for over a year, and outsold PS3 almost 2 to 1 last month. :yikes

 

[navychop]

Navychop, is it possible that what HD-DVD is saying is that if they get say 35,000 sales for a HD-DVD release in October they are still getting the same numbers on a new release now. That would make it level -- not growing -- but not declining.

Exactly.

However, in a format war if you are not growing - you are losing. I also expect the PS3 introduction in Europe to change that market's landscape because for right now Europe is the only market where HD-DVD is actually growing. Let's check back in 2 months and see how the European HD movie market is doing.

Yes. As I posted in the "Retailers to ditch..." thread, HD-DVD outsells Blu-ray by 4 to 1 in the UK. But they only sold about 10,000 discs total, both formats, in 2006. That will grow enormously in the next 2 months.

 

[navychop]

"It would be our view that standard DVD is not going to disappear overnight," Casey said. "Just because there's a new format doesn't mean that the old format will disappear." Casey predicted that many consumers will make the transition to high definition when their current equipment breaks down and needs to be replaced. "Consumers will upgrade," she said, "but that will take time. Within five years, about a third will be high-def, but the rest will be still be standard."

Sounds more realistic to me.

The 360 has been out for over a year, and outsold PS3 almost 2 to 1 last month. :yikes

Considering the wealth of games available for the xbox360, and the lack of same for the PS3, I would certainly expect the xbox360 to outsell the PS3. I note the PS2 outsells the xbox360. As the PS3 gains more games, and games that utilize it's capabilities better, I'm sure sales will rise. The two units may be more equal in sales in another year. At some point, the PS3 may come out on top. Then the Microsoft "next best thing" will come out, and the cycle will continue.