Yeah, 4K will be adopted, mostly because the online streamers are adopting it and Google is pushing it for YouTube (Google even has its own codec called V9, successor to V8) and h.265 is here and now to do 4K efficiently for DBS or MSO's. 3D never got this far. Further, with 65+ inch screens coming way down in price, 4K keeps the image looking quite good, and contrary to what some are saying, one can see a difference (although not enough to throw out your perfectly working HDTV and buy an Ultra HDTV today) even at 55 inches. People want the biggest screen they can afford and TV makers are accommodating, and 4K will keep the PQ nice, even unconverted by the UltraTV looks noticeable better.
However, while online programmers and video content seems to be racing to 4K, we have not heard much from the big studios about CONTENT in the MVPD delivery business. I can't help but feel that MVPD's can't allow Netflix or YouTube to be the only provider of 4K content. While DirecTV has made a commitment publicly (they made such an announcement MONTHS ago), Dish, at first said "no" which I NEVER believed, but has since thought it a possibility. IMHO, Dish is looking at, and may even have plans, to launch 4K, when it feels it is ready (or has to, to be competitive), but is not willing to make a public commitment as DirecTV has done. In fact, Dish may offer 4K via its upcoming OTT service, and that makes more sense as the cost for that is mostly on the consumer provided he has the latest Roku or other device and the downstream bandwidth to support it, but cheap for Dish OTT to do. 4K via satellite on Dish would be more expensive, and it sure looks like Dish has boarded the OTT train--while DirecTV is investing in even more
satellites? We'll see if the new AT&T owners don't change that huge investment in sats to support 4K once they get their hands on it, the deal goes through, and are the real owners. Me thinks Charlie is still the "genie" who can predict the future better than ANY exec in all the TV entertainment business.
What is really sad is that 8K exists (YES, another standard to upgrade in the future
), and CE makers are trying to make things so that a move to 8K would not require massive change-outs of hardware. Yes, 4K is here to stay, but it will take at least another few years for the prices to drop and for enough programming in real 4K to create a tipping point.
