Dish Earning Conf Call Monday 8/4/08

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dmendenjr

dmendenjr

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Feb 24, 2008
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The keystone state
Playing the prophet:
"well last quarter we saw no growth in new subs, HD is not a big factor in this, but just the same we are pleased to announce 18 new channels and exciting new turbo HD programming pacakges." ((where is the 18 - WGN -- like with last time counting USA, Sci-Fi, and CNN))

I don't know why, but the whole thing leaves me with a foreboding taste of team summit week all over again.
 
Scott Greczkowski said:
I am going to guess and say the numbers are as bad a last quarter, if not worse.
Click to expand...
I am not sure about the financials, but I predict a net loss of 30K subscribers and increased churn for E*. Conversely, I predict DirecTV will announce strong 2Q subscriber numbers, and Verizon (FiOS) will announce acquiring roughly 300K more customers.

Just 18-months ago, E* had the best DVR, the most HD (albeit HD-Lite), and the best prices...we were satisfied customers. E* really had to go out of their way to alienate many of their best customers: continued HD-Lite, got leaped by D* HD, confusing pricing and promotions, D* marketing put E* to shame, E* can no longer compete on "price alone" thanks to the Cable/Telco Triple Play, and let's not forget TiVo and VOOM.
 
Sooner than later cable, satellite and whatever is going to reach saturation and all there will be is cannibalization of each others customers.

When satellite was new growth was easy, but it is becoming more and more difficult to grow as you reach a certain % of the total population and it should not be expected to go on forever

Why do you thing McDonalds and other fast food joints are always coming out with new products. They realise when saturation is approaching and have to punch up the product offering to keep investors happy and customers coming.

Will Dish or Direct be the first to drop HD price to the SD price and push it out to all customers.

What have you done for me lately?
 
For several years, both E* and D* were stealing Cable customers, while Cable was growing their broadband market and stealing phone company customers. Well, the telcos are now winning back phone customers, stealing cable/satellite customers, and continuing to grow their broadband business. The Tripe Play, Home Run, and single billing are making it more difficult for D*/E* these days.

It should be interesting to see whether DBS video marketshare will peak this year and begin to slowly shrink over the coming years. The big winners appear to be Verizon FiOS and AT&T U-Verse, but other small Telcos are getting involved. What's significant is how D* is still growing their customer base, while E* appears to be flat or possibly even losing subscribers.
 
dmendenjr said:
DISH Network Corporation - Dish Network Corporation Announces Second Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call
just like clockwork - 17 new hd channels 8/1, conf call 8/4 (May all over again)
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They want to tell investors that their 100/100 plan is "ahead" of schedule. E* still blame the economy, D*, and their customer service as issues that need to be ironed out. I am waiting for the bearish report from Craig Moffett who last quarter predicted a net loss of subs.
 
ENGLEWOOD, Colo., Aug 04, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ -- DISH Network Corporation (Nasdaq: DISH) today reported total revenue of $2.91 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2008, a 5.6 percent increase compared with $2.76 billion for the corresponding period in 2007.

Net income totaled $336 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2008, compared with $224 million during the corresponding period in 2007. Basic earnings per share were $0.75 for the quarter ended June 30, 2008, compared with basic earnings per share of $0.50 during the corresponding period in 2007.

DISH Network lost approximately 25,000 net subscribers during the quarter ended June 30, 2008, ending the quarter with approximately 13.79 million subscribers.

Detailed financial data and other information are available in DISH Network's Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2008, filed today with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Click to expand...
Source: Dish Network Press Release
 
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RiffJim was close with his prediction of a 30,000 subscriber loss.

I am not math guy but I am trying to figure how they made a profit with a loss of 25,000 customers. Something is not adding up to me there.
 
Scott Greczkowski said:
RiffJim was close with his prediction of a 30,000 subscriber loss.


I am not math guy but I am trying to figure how they made a profit with a loss of 25,000 customers. Something is not adding up to me there.
Click to expand...

Lost...25,000
Added...752,000
 
The crazy thing is that e* doesn't mention their sub growth in the press release. Maybe they have serious issues in their public relations dept. As of 9:40am EDT, their stock is down 1.91. Market down 50.48.
 
Scott Greczkowski said:
RiffJim was close with his prediction of a 30,000 subscriber loss.

I am not math guy but I am trying to figure how they made a profit with a loss of 25,000 customers. Something is not adding up to me there.
Click to expand...

Maybe this is why, from UPDATE 2-DISH loses subscribers as competition stiffens | Reuters

"Although the subscriber loss meant lower installation costs for DISH, which helped boost its quarterly profit to above Wall Street expectations, analysts said on Monday the customer loss boded ill for the company's growth prospects.

"This is not pretty. It's the first ever loss of subscribers by a major satellite TV company," said Craig Moffett, analyst at Bernstein Research"
 
8bitbytes said:
Stopped payment to Rainbow Media?
Click to expand...
That's part of it...VOOM claims they never paid affiliation fees from Feb 1 to Mar 13, and that they are owned other back payments. The other increase in revenue appears to be schlocking more HD at $10-$20 a whack along with probably a million more monthly DVR fees. Sorry folks, but HD is no longer a premium service and customers should no longer have to pay additional dollars for programming they already receiving in SD. Likewise, paying multiple DVR fees has to go! I hope E* realizes all these nickle and dime fees, along with dropping programming due to $$$ disputes, are going to drive customers away in droves. Next quarter could easily be 50-75K if they don't make customers their #1 priority.
 
rad said:
Maybe this is why, from UPDATE 2-DISH loses subscribers as competition stiffens | Reuters

"Although the subscriber loss meant lower installation costs for DISH, which helped boost its quarterly profit to above Wall Street expectations, analysts said on Monday the customer loss boded ill for the company's growth prospects.

"This is not pretty. It's the first ever loss of subscribers by a major satellite TV company," said Craig Moffett, analyst at Bernstein Research"
Click to expand...
So what is the correct info?

KAB says there was a gain of 752,000...

Is Moffett playing numbers games for someone or did Dish have a net loss of 25,000?
 

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