fios tampa rumors

[korsjs]

i talked to a fios guy who was doing an install at my childcare provider's house today. this is what he said.

i asked him about fios tv. he said jan possibly oct.

i asked him about hbo, i didn't think he would know anything about the contracts, but thought i would ask. he said they can use hbo because of their agreement with directv.

he said the are having problems with an agreement with hillsborough county.

i also asked him about upload speed, i only average around 1.47. he said miranda speed test is inaccurate when it does the upload test. he said most likely, i am getting the full two upload.

Longhorn, can you shed any light on this?

 

[hbk409]

i asked him about hbo, i didn't think he would know anything about the contracts, but thought i would ask. he said they can use hbo because of their agreement with directv.

What would direct tv have anything to do with hbo?? Time warner owns this channel

 

[korsjs]

what he told me is that since they sell directv throught verizon, they are able to use directvs contracts. i don't know if this is true or not.

 

[hbk409]

if that was the case then why bother signing deals with everone else?

 

[LonghornXP]

i talked to a fios guy who was doing an install at my childcare provider's house today. this is what he said.

i asked him about fios tv. he said jan possibly oct.

i asked him about hbo, i didn't think he would know anything about the contracts, but thought i would ask. he said they can use hbo because of their agreement with directv.

he said the are having problems with an agreement with hillsborough county.

i also asked him about upload speed, i only average around 1.47. he said miranda speed test is inaccurate when it does the upload test. he said most likely, i am getting the full two upload.

Longhorn, can you shed any light on this?

This guy on the TV side is 100% wrong. DirecTV will have no involvement in Fios TV service. I shouldn't be saying this but Verizon has other deals in place for many channels that haven't been announced yet and won't be. From what I'm hearing from the people that I know on the corporate level (all national HD channels will be done as a national deal like all other providers.

Right now Verizon is working very hard on a deal with HBO and Cinemax to have these channels included as part of the 60-65/month package and from what I hear that is what is slowing down this deal but they feel that a deal is very close and that HBO and Verizon are working out pricing and that HBO is very interested in this idea to include their premium channels in a basic package instead of an add-on package.

From what I hear if in the rare case that Verizon can't get this type of deal done with HBO and Cinemax they would still offer for 50-55/month all the other premium channels. From what I'm hearing I have no doubts that HBO and Cinemax will be on the Verizon lineup as part of the 60-65/month package.

So to sum this up anyone accross the USA that has access to Verizon Fios TV service will get the following.

You will get the channels that BHN carries between channels 2-160ish plus digital music choice channels. You will also get free on demand channels. You will also get all HD channels (Their add-on HDTV package will include two HDNets, two InHDs and the Voom 21) that aren't in the add-on HDTV package which will include all HD local channels.

Now besides getting all of this above for 60-65/month you will get all premium SD, HD and On Demand channels which will include the following below.

HBO, Cinemax, Showtime Unlimited and the Starz SuperPak. These premium channels will also include all the SD feeds, all the HD feeds and all premium channels will have their On Demand channels free as well.

So you will be getting for 60-65/month the same exact channels and more that DirecTV gives you for at the least 93.99/month.

Also if you wanted everything listed above without all the premium channels you can get it for 29.99/month.

 

[LonghornXP]

what he told me is that since they sell directv throught verizon, they are able to use directvs contracts. i don't know if this is true or not.

My contacts at DirecTV have said they have no interest to allow Verizon to offer DirecTV service over fiber because if they allowed this Verizon would also get access to offer NFL Sunday Ticket which they don't want to give up. Whatever this guy has told you he has no idea what he is talking about and is mistaking himself about two seperate different offerings.

 

[korsjs]

thanks for the update longhorn. we might have to get together one day and have a beer, on me of course.

the pricing that you mention is outstanding. i can't understand how it will be that cheap. i will gladly add on their hd pak. i can't wait.

thanks again.

 

[LonghornXP]

thanks for the update longhorn. we might have to get together one day and have a beer, on me of course.

the pricing that you mention is outstanding. i can't understand how it will be that cheap. i will gladly add on their hd pak. i can't wait.

thanks again.

That would be nice. I'll shed some light about why the pricing would be so cheap and why HBO and other premium channels are interested in doing a contract like this.

For one thing Showtime and Starz believe that they can rake in more money by charging Verizon less money (much less money) if Verizon puts their channels into a basic package that doesn't require the customer paying extra for it. Its all about volume now in both Verizon and Starz's mind.

Say if BHN has 1 million digital cable customers in all the tampa bay area. Now say if HBO only gets 350,000 of those 1 million total customers as HBO customers. Now say if HBO charges BHN 6.50/month per HBO customer while BHN charges the customer 9.95/month extra to get HBO.

Now say if Verizon to gain an edge over other providers and still make a profit work out a deal as they are doing with premium providers to have their channels bundled in a basic package. Lets see how this would break down.

Say if Verizon has 1 million digital customers in all the tampa bay area at some point in time just as BHN does. Now say if HBO gives Verizon the HBO channels for 3.50/month if and only if Verizon includes their channels in their base package. Well Verizon has their edge and HBO now has 1 million HBO customers paying 3.50/month each. So HBO by doing this gets more money than what they are getting with BHN.

Now we will look at how Verizon makes out on this deal.

So right now we know that providers can offer a basic package without premiums (channels 2-160ish plus music choice channels) for about 40 bucks a month because D* and Dish can do this today.

Now say if these Verizon deals break down like this below.

HBO = 5.50 (with two dollar profit per customer).
Cinemax = 4.00 (with two dollar profit per customer)
Showtime Unlimited = (8.00 with three dollar profit per customer)
Starz SuperPak = (8.00 with three dollar profit per customer)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Total cost of premium channels = 25.50

Now again lets consider that the basic package without premium channels as I said above can be offered a 40-45/month which it surely can. So if we add those premium channels into that mix we have the following below.

40-45/month plus 25.50/month = 65.50-70.50 total which includes a two dollar profit per premium channel per customer for Verizon at the least.

Now we also know that Verizon plans on offering their basic package without premium channels for about 30 bucks per month. So that would match very nicely into that 55-65 dollar per month windows doesn't it.

Now with that said this is how the premium channels break down.

HBO would get 3.50/month times one million customers or 3.5 million dollars per month.

Cinemax would get 2.00/month times one million customers for 2 million dollars per month.

Showtime Unlimited (includes Showtime and TMC) would get 5.00/month times one million customers or 5 million dollars per month.

Starz SuperPak (includes the main Starz channels plug Encore channels) would get 5.00/month per customer times one million customers or again 5 million dollars per month.

Can you see how this is the perfect way for say Starz to increase their profit that is going down every year because of the high cost they pay to get their content. Verizon has thought of such a great idea because for once we have something that can benefit all sides involved. The premium channels will get more and Verizon will make just as much a profit as the old way while at the sametime they will have a huge edge over every provider. Now besides all of this the customer can benefit from this because they can soon get much more than they ever dreamed for such a low cost while at the sametime this will force other TV providers to work out new deals like this (this helping premium channels again and helping customers).

This will all be about charging less to get more volume because they have pretty much capped their customer base so the only way for HBO and the like to get more customers is by price. Now the only way for HBO to charge less is if a provider could promise this many customers for them and when people have to pay extra you can't predict this but when you know that this amount of customers pays this amount of money if you can workout new deals and throw in all these premium channels you can now promise that HBO will have this many customers.

I know I went very long here but this right now is a very rapid shift on TV pricing for the better.

 

[korsjs]

you broke that down really well. thanks.

now when they say we will get starz/sho/hbo, is that all their channels or just their hbo east, sho east, etc in the basic pack.

 

[peterl1365]

LonghornXP,

Any idea what their DVR's are going to be like? Sounds like they will be doing a system similar to D*'s HMC. Any info on cost?

Thanks.

 

[LonghornXP]

LonghornXP,

Any idea what their DVR's are going to be like? Sounds like they will be doing a system similar to D*'s HMC. Any info on cost?

Thanks.

All of their boxes will be Motorola cable type boxes that can record two shows at once. They will have an HD DVR, HD box, plain digital box and an SD DVR box. They will be running Microsoft based IPG and recording software. All DVR boxes can act as a server which would allow any Verizon box to watch a show recorded on it. They do have plans to offer a server box that will have 6 tuners on it that can spread content to just a basic digital box. Sending out a show will use one tuner but watching a live show in another room with a digital box won't use a tuner because it has its own digital box.

Digital box will be priced around 6.00/month.
SD DVR will be priced about 9.95/month.
HD box will be priced around 7.00/month.
HD DVR will be priced round 13.00/month.
HD Server box will be priced around 13.00/month because it won't have extra storage just two extra tuner chips and a little bit faster hard disk drive. The server will also have more memory to hold data from all 6 tuners real time to copy it from the hard drive in bigger chunks so the hard drive can keep up.

I hope this helps you out.

Edit..also keep in mind that Verizon won't be dealing the DVR service fees but will just have one set price for the DVR boxes. So if the HD DVR is priced at 13 bucks a month you won't have any extra fees beyond that price.

 

[LonghornXP]

you broke that down really well. thanks.

now when they say we will get starz/sho/hbo, is that all their channels or just their hbo east, sho east, etc in the basic pack.

I'll tell you what the Showtime Unlimited and Starz SuperPak channels will be and I assume that HBO and Cinemax will follow suit as well. These below will all be included at this basic package price so no extra teir for more channels.

Showtime East and West.
Showtime Too East and West.
Showcase East and West.
Showtime Beyond East and West.
Showtime Extreme East and West.
Showtime NEXT East and West.
Showtime Family Zone East and West.
Showtime Women East and West.
The Movie Channel East and West.
TMC Xtra East and West.
Flix East and West.
The Sundance Channel East.
Showtime HD East and West.
The Movie Channel HD East.
Showtime On Demand.
The Movie Channel On Demand.

Starz East and West.
Starz Edge East and West.
Starz InBlack East and West.
Starz Comedy East and West.
Starz Kids and Family East and West.
Starz Cinema East and West.
Encore East and West.
Encore Action East and West.
Encore Love East and West.
Encore Westerns East and West.
Encore Mystery East and West.
Encore Drama East and West.
Encore WAM East and West.
MoviePlex.
Starz HDTV East and West.
Starz On Demand (will include HD movies on Demand).

So that will be the lineup that will come bundled in this package. I would assume that HBO and Cinemax will follow suit when they have their deal worked out.

 

[peterl1365]

Thanks, for the info, LonghornXP.

So, if I'm configuring a three-room SD setup, I should be able to do the following:

2 SD DVR's at $10/month
1 basic box at $6/month
Total: $26/month

I would be able to stream video from one DVR to the other, correct? And the basic box will be able to receive streams from either DVR?

Or, I could do the following:

1 "Media Center" DVR at $13/mo
2 basic boxes at $6/month
Total $25/month.

I suppose the media center DVR would be the way to go, particularly if it will do HD (don't need it now, but hopefully in the next year or two).

If the $30 price point for the basic programming package is true, that's about $55/month for three rooms, with HD and MRV. That's about $6 less that what I (should) be paying for my D* 3-room setup with 3 DTivos. And I would get MRV and HD locals at no additional cost.

Seems to me a comparable D* HMC setup would be, at a minimum:

TC+ with locals $46
HMC Lease $15 (per your estimates)
mirror fee (x2) $10 for two client boxes
=====================================
Total: $71

If Verizon comes through on these prices, it should be a very attractive alternative to D*. And cable will be blown out of the water.

I can't wait for the fireworks to begin.

 

[korsjs]

unbelievable. as always thanks.

 

[peterl1365]

LonghornXP,

I forgot to ask earlier. Any idea what the capacities will be for the DVR boxes? I'm guessing at least 100 hours for the SD DVR and 250 GB for the HD DVR, whatever that converts to in HD time.

Thanks again.

 

[peterl1365]

unbelievable. as always thanks.

"57 channels and there's nothing on" -- Bruce Springsteen

If Bruce only knew...

Even if I had time to watch TV more than a couple hours a night, I'd be afraid of this package. I counted nearly 30 channels in the showtime package alone. I can't even keep up with the stuff I get now. I've got some movies that I recorded 6 months ago that I haven't watched yet.

Awfully tempting, though. And I think Verizon is on to something here. I think a lot of people will bite. $60-65 is basically what most cable customers pay for digital cable and perhaps 1 premium channel package.

 

[LonghornXP]

Also I didn't want to say this because I don't think the cost would be low enough to rent but I'll say what I'm hearing. I'm hearing that Verizon is looking at a server box with two 300GB hard drives but don't hold your breath now.

The reason for this is because this would be a server box and most likely the only DVR recording box in the house they are thinking of something else in mind. They are working with Motorola at having a case that has a keylock that a cable tech would have to unlock it and pullout either of the two hard drives. Each drive bay would have a light LED and if the light is lit it means the drive is bad.

Now only 300GB can be used or recording because these drives will be used in a RAID configuration. This means that everything recorded will be copied onto the backup drive. So if one of the two drives goes bad a message will popup on the screen telling the customer to call Verizon Customer support to request a service call for a drive replacement. So a Verizon Tech can have spare hard drives and just pull the bad one out and put the new one in at which time the new drive will have everything copied to it. They are also looking at having all of their DVR boxes work this way to reduce support and repair costs and to avoid pissed off customers when they lost everything.

The most important thing they want is easy removable drive bays that can be locked so that only thier techs can remove and install a drive.

From what I hear it seems that the basic SD DVR will have a 160GB hard drive. The HD DVR will have a 250GB hard drive and the Server box will have a 300GB hard drive or bigger.

 

[LonghornXP]

Also if HBO and Cinemax get added this is the pricing that Verizon will be compared to DirecTV.

DirecTV
93.00-total choice premier with locals
11.00-HD Package
15.00-Home Media Center rental.
10.00-two extra client boxes (including mirror fees)
---------------------------------------------------
129.00-subtotal
16.00-taxes in my case
-----------------------------------------------------
145.00-grand total.

Verizon
65.00-same package as total choice premier with locals
5.00-add-on HD Package
15.00-Home Media Server rental.
15.00-two extra room rental fees.
------------------------------------------------------------
100.00-subtotal
13.00-taxes in my case
------------------------------------------------------------
113.00-grand total.

That is 30+ bucks a month cheaper than DirecTV and that isn't counting any bundled discounts you will get if you have phone service, high speed internet or cell phone service with Verizon. I'm hearing that Verizon is looking at a pricepoint of about 175-180 bucks a month with taxes for the following below.

I adjusted their pricing I was given for these boxes below. If you didn't have three HD DVR boxes it would be lower pricing.

Three total rooms all with an HD DVR with multiroom viewing between them all.

You will get every channel they offer on TV including all HD channels, all premium channels and all On Demand channels. I mean you get everything.

You also get in this bundle their 15Mbps/2Mbps internet service and their VoIP based Verizon Freedom Package which will include all premium calling features plus unlimited long distance to all the US and Canada.

So you get the Verizon Freedom phone package, high speed internet and the best TV service package with three HD DVR boxes for a total bundled cost with taxes of 180-185 bucks a month.

Also keep in mind that if you currently pay 35.00/month for Verizon phone service that you won't be paying that 35.00/month anymore. Consider this 35.00/month gone so your total Verizon bill would be 180-185/month.

 

[peterl1365]

I currently pay:

$28.xx for Verizon landline
$40.00 for Fios 15/2
$49.95 for D* TC+ w/ no premiums
$20.00 for long distance calls (give or take, with Bigredwire.com)

That adds up to $138 per month, including taxes. Now, my fios is a promotional rate, as is my D* service, so to make a fair comparison, that total should be more like $159 per month.

So, I'd basically be paying about $25 a month more for an HD MRV DVR system, more premium channels than I could possibly watch and unlimited long distance plus caller-ID et al, all on one bill. And it sounds like I could probably lower that bill by about $40 or so if I didn't get the premium channels and the HD package.

I could probably live with that.

By the way, the Verizon Freedom package is not VOIP. It uses your existing telephones.

 

[peterl1365]

LonghornXP,

One more question if you don't mind.

The D* HMC is rumored to be a Motorola box using Ucentric middleware. The Fios DVR server is supposed to be a Motorola box as well. Both will have a total of 6 tuners (although the D* box has 4 digital and 2 OTA, whereas the Verizon presumably would be all digital).

Are we talking about basically the same hardware platform here?