I kinda expect Abdul to return. She recently switched managers and I would imagine that her new management is trying to negotiate a contract more like what Seacreast recently signed (which, IMHO, is an amount beyond absurd for what he does). So, if Abdul doesn't return, I suspect it'll be due to two reasons: 1) her management set the $ bar too high and 2) they had time management issues with 4 judges and want to get it back down to 3 so that each judge has time to talk and isn't pressed for time and (like everything else these days) lower the bottom-line (costs). I'm sure, with Paula going into season 9 wants (and feels she deserves) more money than Kara, who would only be on season 2.
At the end of the day, sadly, it all comes down to the bean-counters...