POLL -- Gambler's Delight: Voom and the Future

[squicken]

Will ALL of the following be available or implemented by November 15.

1. Initial implementation of MPEG/WM9 complete. For the purposes of this poll, implementation is considered encoding of material by VOOM and presence of decoder module in all applicable subscribers' STBs.

2. VOOM will be using second satellite. Since VOOM hasn't announced exact plans, the satellite can be in place for new content or as backup. If it is a backup, it must be available to be used in that capacity for the purposes of this poll.

3. All applicable subscribers have received dish upgrade. For the purposes of this poll, no subscriber is denied a service he desires because his dish hasn't been upgraded yet. If VOOM is using the second satellite only for premiums, and you don't want premiums, then you are considered "upgraded" for the purposes of this poll. But if Voom is using second satellite as backup only, then ALL subscribers must have second dish.

4. DVR will be available to anyone willing to pay the asking price. Pretty self explanatory. Price isn't a factor. If your willing to pay, you can set up install appointment that day.

Remember, if you think any of these will not be in place by November 15, you must vote no. I chose November 15 because all these have been announced for the "fall", and November 15 is certainly late fall if not winter. I mostly chose it because it is the very beginning of the Christmas shopping season, and I'd hope VOOM would want it's house in order for all those folks buying an HDTV for Christmas and wanting some VOOM.

I know this is all conjecture and wild speculation, and that I said "purposes of this poll" too much. I'm just curious what everyone thinks. Please post your comments also as to why you chose the way you did.

By the way, moderators and other beta testers, you can't vote "yes" just because you and your friends will all have these things by then

 

[The Stone Man]

I voted no, but I'm hoping I'm wrong. The 4 items are pretty big events, and are going to cost some serious $$. If Voom would be willing to ship new elliptical dishes and the plug-in for MPEG4/WM9 to current subs, and bypass Installers, Inc. then it is possible. However--I think the DVR requires 2 satellite lines, so a lot of people will have to have some intervention by an installer, and that could get ugly.

In fairness to the installers, Voom is not the only satellite service around. So the installers are not sitting around waiting for Voom upgrade work. They are busy with the other services too, and there are a lot of posts about making less money on Voom work. Seems like Voom and Installs don't have a solid partnership yet, and I think that is what is going to delay these events past 11/15/2004.

 

[Ken F]

I voted no.

1. Initial implementation of MPEG/WM9 complete. For the purposes of this poll, implementation is considered encoding of material by VOOM and presence of decoder module in all applicable subscribers' STBs.

It will probably take several months to install the H.264 / MPEG4 / WM9 module in all STBs. I expect VOOM to have the upgrade process underway by November 15, but I don't expect it to finish before January 1.

This assumes that customers can install the MPEG-4 upgrade module themselves. If a service visit is required to perform this upgrade, it will be many months before they can make the transition.

2. VOOM will be using second satellite. Since VOOM hasn't announced exact plans, the satellite can be in place for new content or as backup. If it is a backup, it must be available to be used in that capacity for the purposes of this poll.

No satellite provider uses their backup capacity soley for that purpose. Satellite capacity is just too valuable to let it sit unused. Dish and DirecTV use their backup satellites for incremental services that they can afford to drop should a failure occur. I expect VOOM to do the same.

I expect VOOM to be using the new satellite by November 15, but I don't expect every customer to have the new dish, nor do I think every customer will need it. It will almost certainly be used for incremental services (HD PPV; perhaps some HD RSNs; premium content like sports packages and adult programming) that they can afford to drop should the main satellite fail.

The new dish may also serve as a temporary location for some new SD channels until the MPEG-4 / WM9 deployment is complete and a switchover has taken place. Long-term, I do not expect any basic package channels to be on the new dish (with possible exception to HD RSNs), but I would not be surprised to see a new programming tier between basic ($39.90) and vavavoom ($79.90) on the second dish at some point.

If they are going to require that an installer upgrade the receiver with the MPEG-4 module, then it will make sense for them to deploy the new dish and upgrade module at the same time (kill two birds with one stone). Service calls are just too expensive to do this separately.

They will have to prioritize the dish installs somehow, because they can't do 30,000 installs at once, and it is in their best interest to give priority to those that will be buying programming on the new dish. They may make the new dish and MPEG-4 module available first to those who order new programming (and thereby take priority), and everyone else afterwards. Certainly, if they are going to offer sports packages, they need to get the new dishes to those customers asap, as the NBA season starts at the end of October, and the NHL season in early October (probably delayed due to the impending lockout).

3. All applicable subscribers have received dish upgrade.

Not a chance.

4. DVR will be available to anyone willing to pay the asking price. Pretty self explanatory. Price isn't a factor. If your willing to pay, you can set up install appointment that day.

I predict the DVR will be available for purchase by November 15, but perhaps lacking some announced features with the initial software. If VOOM waits until their multi-room functionality is ready, I don't expect to see the DVR before January or February.

I do not expect the DVR to be available for lease until 2005, if it is available for lease at all. I wouldn't expect this to happen until sufficient quantities of the box are available and the product is close to feature complete. Nor are they likely to offer the DVR before sufficient quantities of the new dish are available. It will make sense for them to swap out the old dish for the new one when they are installing the DVR (and running the extra line to the STB that is necessary for dual-tuner functionality).

If VOOM waits too long, they do run the risk of being preempted by Dish Network, whose next-generation dual-tuner 942 HDTV DVR is expected late this year or early next at under $600, thanks to the highly integrated BCM7038 solution. Similar to the 522, the 942 DVR will feature support for separate channels on two TVs: one HDTV and one SDTV.

 

[bbtkd]

I suspect that NONE of them will occur by then. In particular, think about the task of swapping out dishes. By November, Voom could have 30-40,000 dishes to swap. First of all, the logistics of them buying and shipping that many dishes will take months. Next, that's 30,000+ opportunities for experiencing cancelled appointments, no-shows, gotta-get-a-ladder, mis-peaking, revisits, etc, etc. Of 30,000 installs, how many will go as planned (if I have the same installer, I am confident mine will)? I predict that this one won't be done until at least a year from now.

 

[vurbano]

IF i could stop laughing long enough I could think of something insightful to say. But right now, if past or present performance is relevant, You must be joking. These clowns? no way. Id compare it to my 15 yr old son dreaming of a new car. Nope dont think so.

BTW their date was October, dont cut them any slack by using November. Lets not make their lies any easier. The have how many roofs to climb before October? nope aint gonna happen. Maybe its just for new subs? SHould we all cancel and then reorder?

 

[wasch_24]

Hey, where's the "Probably not, but I sure hope so" option?

 

[DRAKO]

I voted NO as well...

 

[Sean Mota]

Nope - to everything being in placed by 11/15/04. If I was a betting man, this is what I say will happen in order.

1. VOOM will be using second satellite. Since VOOM hasn't announced exact plans, the satellite can be in place for new content or as backup. If it is a backup, it must be available to be used in that capacity for the purposes of this poll.

2. All applicable subscribers have received dish upgrade. For the purposes of this poll, no subscriber is denied a service he desires because his dish hasn't been upgraded yet. If VOOM is using the second satellite only for premiums, and you don't want premiums, then you are considered "upgraded" for the purposes of this poll. But if Voom is using second satellite as backup only, then ALL subscribers must have second dish.

3. DVR will be available to anyone willing to pay the asking price. Pretty self explanatory. Price isn't a factor. If your willing to pay, you can set up install appointment that day.


4. Initial implementation of MPEG/WM9 complete. For the purposes of this poll, implementation is considered encoding of material by VOOM and presence of decoder module in all applicable subscribers' STBs.

 

[voomvoom]

NOPE... cause nothing is ever 100% and any doubt would have to be a no... but, I've been wrong before... so vurbano, go and get that car for your son...

 

[DarrellP]

Hey, hold on gang, there is no YEAR associated with the date! Anyway, I thought I read somewhere that it was going to take like 1 1/2 years to get all of the new dishes upgraded in the field. Anyone else remember this? And if they have to send out a bonehead installer just to plug in the MPEG-4/WM9 module, how long is that going to take?

I assume they will not be able to turn on the new encoding scheme until all boxes have the new mods in place, is that correct?

 

[Dvlos]

When my first install/repair guy came out, he told me that he went from 1-2 Voom installs a month, to 1-2 a week, to being a dedicated Voom tech/installer in a matter of months, he tells me there is a group of guys dedicated to Voom now. If Voom is growing in subscribers it would be BETTER, for them to install people fully upgraded now, and upgrade the subscribers they have now, than wait until November. Also having more services in place before the holidays when everyone's out buying TVs I think, would make more sense, but it may not be economically feasible until January or February of next year.

 

[squicken]

So far a lot of feedback. I'm sorry Darrell, November 15, 2004 is what I meant. I put up the poll because sometimes when I'm sitting there rebooting my box or watching audio/video drop outs, I think to myself "wait until fall, it'll be better." I was just curious what some smart people thought the likelihood of Voom being much better really were. So far, most people seem to think Voom's will be about the same for the next several months.

I was thinking like Ken F. If I was Voom, I'd want to have some things rolled out by the time people start shopping for Christmas. That means a more well rounded channel lineup, and a competing DVR. By then, E* and D* may both have a more reasonably priced DVR available, as well as a more robust HD channel lineup (at least D* could). Thanks for the good feedback. Keep it coming.

 

[DarrellP]

I'm sorry Darrell, November 15, 2004 is what I meant.

I know, I'm just yanking your chain.

 

[CKNA]

3. All applicable subscribers have received dish upgrade. For the purposes of this poll, no subscriber is denied a service he desires because his dish hasn't been upgraded yet. If VOOM is using the second satellite only for premiums, and you don't want premiums, then you are considered "upgraded" for the purposes of this poll. But if Voom is using second satellite as backup only, then ALL subscribers must have second dish.

This new satellite lease can't be used as back up. First of all, it is linear satellite, which has horizontal and vertical polarities. Main Voom satellite is DBS and uses circular and is more powerful. You need different type of LNB to receive linear satellite.

Second of all it is 10.5 degrees away in the orbit. In order to use it as back up in case of main satellite failure, either all dishes would have to be moved and all LNB's changed or satellite itself would have to moved. Moving satellite 10.5 degrees in space takes few days. So, either way, Voom service would be out for a long time.

DirecTV and Dish have their back up satellites in the same position as primary, so switching in case of failure is relatively quick.

I guess second satellite could be used as back up, but only when all customers have new dual satellite dishes. Before that as I explained above, it is practically impossible.

 

[Dvlos]

Why do you guys think it will just be used as a backup when that memo stated the capabilities of being able to add more HD channels and more SD channels?

 

[voomvoom]

I don't think any of them have back-up satelites... what they have is back-up transponders (channels) that could be on different satellites... and trust me, although they could move the satellite, it is unlikely, unless the whole satellite fails... they do move satellites when they are replaced and park them somewhere for that very reason... I only know of one satellite that failed completely (T-4 at 89 degrees) and it hasn't been replaced yet... all the channels on that satellite had to relocate... their have been very few channels that have failed, but it happens... they can use an eliptical dish with multiple LNB's to capture more than one satellite at a time, if they are close enough together... and finally I keep reading in different threads where people say there are two satellites at 61.5 degrees, I don't believe that for a second... I base this from Lyngsat.com where they show one 32 transponder satellite, with two names (rainbow 1 and echostar 3) when you split up the transponders... actually there is another provider on that bird, Sky Angel, so why not say their are 3 satellites at 61.5 degrees... broken down, Voom uses 13 transponders, Dish uses 14 transponders, Sky Angel uses 2 transponders and 3 transponders are open... or maybe those 3 transponders are the back-ups for the other 29 transponders...

 

[Walter L.]

I voted NO. I think that by Nov. 15 all items on the list will be started but not 100% completed. A more realistic date would be March 2005.

 

[squicken]

The only reason I mentioned backup was for clarity. I was trying to eliminate a grey area. I don't think they'll be using it entirely for backup either.

 

[squicken]

Almost 80% are pessimistic. I'm suprised it's not higher. Thanks for voting everyone.

 

[tdillon]

The 00.06.00 software update should be included in the list of things to be delivered by Nov 15.