The Future of Sunday Ticket

[steverobertson]

I agree with tIVO I already have VOD I really don't know why cable companies think this is such a big deal because I bet very few Subs will use it once the novelty wear's off. Just my opinion

 

[eckman]

If directv doesn't carry sunday ticket anymore and cable gets it i am sh*t out of luck. I am just off the main road with only a few houses and they have never run cable up this road. I wish they would at least just go to pay per view so i can see my vikes. I live in upstate ny and it's either giants, jets or bills.

 

[steverobertson]

I wouldn't worry about D* loosing ST I am very confident that they will renew again plus we still have 4 years to go on the current contract so sit back and enjoy.

I can't wait for the season to start 21 days to go and I get to see my Pats start their march to another SB title.

 

[CWS_kahuna]

Hopefully it'll work.

..and don't worry Kahuna...maybe by the time D* offers ABC HD you will actually have an LA team to root for!!!

As long as it's not the Raiders again. In all honesty LA not having a team does not bother me. I live not to far from San Diego so I can go to the Chargers games, they are my 2nd favorite team, they just have not been very good (except for LT) in quite some time now. I never really like the Rams or Raiders so I did not care if they stayed. I just hope that if the NFL brings a team back to LA that it's not a new expansion team, the league is perfect right now with 32 teams - 4 teams per division.

 

[GutBomb]

while i much prefer directv to cable, i still think if you actually used the VOD functions cable you would not say they are comparable to tivo. there are actually hundreds of movies and shows you can pull up any time you want without having to worry about scheduling conflicts. again before you jump down my throat, i'm not saying it's BETTER than tivo. it's just completely different and like comparing apples to elephants.

 

[slacker9876]

okay who was picking on GutBomb ... he is a little gun shy!

Just jokes, you're right, both have thier own advantages as do the flip side of many a coin. Honestly, as much as I love TiVo I cannot wait fo them to be crushed myself. I know there is sooooooo much more we could be doing with DVR's ... it is sickening to know I cannot network wqithout taking the steps that I did, which I might add were all legal. I think it will be 5 more years before I see a DVR that actually does what I want and does it in my price range.

Thinking outloud ... Tivo functions, better menus, interactive, built in DVD burner, of course it needs to be HD and have 3 tuners that are cable/cable card, sat, and OTA. Networked without wires, auto commercial editing ... man I could do this all day!

 

[hornmdt]

My prediction is that D* will continue to have Sunday Ticket to offer to its subscribers so I wouldn't be too concerned about that. Where the change will be is that it will no longer be exclusively on D*. If you read between the lines the NFL said as much with the last ST contract renewal with D*. D* was not allowed to retain exclusive renewal rights when that contract expires as they have always previously had since its inception.

The major cable companies will jump all over ST like ugly on an ape beginning next year. The NFL wants that cash cow sold to as many providers as possible. Also, the next year (or is it two?) all satellite companies will also jump at the chance to add it. Both cable and satellite providers all know ST is D*'s biggest selling point and they want to even the playing field. But D* will also continue to carry ST. The NFL is just sitting back licking their chops at all the dough ST will generate when it's on multiple providers instead of just one.

While I'm making predictions, I think the next NFL TV contract will require all providers to carry all their games in High Def. I also see the league going from 16 regular season games spread over 17 weeks to 18 games spread over 19 weeks (1 bye/team) and more likely 20 weeks (2 byes/team), dropping the number of exhibition games to 2. No one likes the exhibition games except coaches so the NFL will now be able to offer at least two more weeks and likely three more weeks of their product, which will increase the value and hence the amount of $$ the NFL will get from the TV contracts. The NFLPA will have to buy off on this at the next NFL-NFLPA contract but the NFL will insist and Upshaw will go along since more revenue for the NFL means more $$ in the player's pockets.

I also think Sunday Ticket or the NFL Network will be expanded to carry all of the two pre-season week's games live for those games that the NFL's network partners do not own the rights. The NFL Network is carrying them this year but there are only a few that can be carried live without an umbrella program like Sunday Ticket (Pre-Season Ticket?). Regardless, with only two pre-season games, they will take on a much higher importance and we will see the starters playing longer than we do now. Compound that with all the fans who no longer live where their favorite team is shown locally and you have a much larger market for these pre-season games that isn't there now and would make ST that much more valuable yet again if they put the pre-season games under that umbrella.

I see Fox shelling out a fortune for the NFC rights because they use it as a loss leader to promote and build their prime-time lineup. They know they will lose money on it again as in the past but they also know their prime-time lineup is still not completely up to par of the other big three and needs the promotion. They may even make a bid at both NFC and AFC Sunday afternoon games so no matter what team you are a fan of you'll get it via Fox and hence see their promotion of their prime-time lineup.

I kinda doubt the NFL would let Fox have both however unless the just offer a ridiculously high amount for those rights. But if the NFL did sell the rights for both NFC and AFC Sunday afternoon games to Fox it would make the value of ST go up even further because that would be the only way for fans to have a choice of two 1:00 pm est Sunday games as is available now OTA. CBS will likely be Fox's only true competition for the Sunday afternoon NFC rights.

A lot of people say MNF will leave ABC. I don't see that happening. There is no way the NFL will allow their weekly showcase game to not be seen over free OTA TV. One of the big four besides ABC might get it, but not ESPN, etc. It's not a prediction, but I do wish the NFL would move MNF to an 8:00 pm EST start-time. Yea I know, the west coast folks would miss the first quarter. But what's worse, missing the 1st quarter or the 4th quarter? The east coaster's have to go to bed in order to be able to get to work on-time the next day.

The NFL has indicated that they would like to see all the major OTA networks get a slice so even NBC should be back in the ballgame so to speak, if they want to be that is. They will likely make a run at the AFC Sunday afternoon rights but would settle for a weekly prime-time game. Since the NFL wants all the major OTA networks to have at least one game per week, they will likely add another prime-time national game. This game will be on Thursday, Friday or Saturday night. Saturday afternoon is out of the question because of college football.

But, with two more networks with HD capability wanting some of the action and who are now setting on the sidelines (NBC and TNT) the NFL will likely offer up yet another prime-time showcase game per week, which would mean that they would add two new weekly prime-time national games in the new TV contract.

TNT would be interested in a Thursday or Friday night game but not a Saturday night game because it would interfere with some of their NASCAR coverage. TNT did not go HD just for a handful of NBA games so look for them to be a big bidder. TNT will likely try to get the Sunday night game away from ESPN or offer to split the season with them. But I'd look for them to get a Thursday or Friday night national game. If they did somehow wrestle the Sunday night game away from ESPN, ESPN would be the one with a Thursday, Friday or Saturday night national game.

I'd look for the 4th OTA network to carry their prime-time game on either Friday or Saturday night (whichever has the weakest programming competition but the most viewers). Thursday night would not be an option for an OTA network because that is the biggest prime-time lineup night.

I've heard the NFL would like to have a weekly Thursday night game with the next contract, but I'd think that would be an ESPN or TNT carried game. That might be where the TNT/ESPN switch would occur. ESPN could probably attract more viewers on Thursday night than could TNT, so they may take that slot and TNT would have the Sunday night game. The NFL Network could also very well be a player and get a live national game each week. That would have to knock someone out because there is only so many games they could pull from the Sunday lineup to add to a night national game. That would likey be TNT or NBC and therefore would also be a loss of revenue because of one less contract sold unless the NFL could make it up by charging more for the ads to be shown during the live game.

I don't know if they will get it, but I think the three networks who get only one game each week for a national audience will ask for the right to switch out their scheduled game for a game that is a Sunday afternoon game. They will ask for this because their originally scheduled game has become meaningless due to surprises during the season.

In summary, I see it breaking down like this with the next TV contract:

Thursday night prime-time - ESPN
Saturday night prime-time - NBC
Sunday afternoon NFC - FOX
Sunday afternoon AFC - CBS
Sunday night prime-time - TNT
Monday night prime-time - ABC

That's my $0.02 and is just in fun. Any other predictions?

 

[fredfa]

That is good speculation hornmdt.
But the problem is that once NFL ST becomes readily available (via MSOs and DirecTV) the value of the broadcast rights falls precipitously.
Now a about 1.5% of the nation's households have access to NFL ST.
Which means that many people are able NOT to watch the local stations (and their commercials.)
Since NewsCorp in the last quarter made about 65% of its entire profit from its O&Os, it isn't likely to want millions of them potentially siphoned away from its biggest ratings attraction (except for AI, of course.)
CBS is in the same boat.
They were willing to take the loss leaders for promotional value, but even with all the promotion, how many hits has Fox come up with?
The stockholders look pretty askance at writing off close to two billion dollars (as ABC, Fox and CBS have done just this contract) for the alleged promo value of the NFL.
I suspect DirecTV ups its bid from $400 to $600 million a year, beginning in 2006 (that's an extra $6.25 million per team) and extend its exclusive deal through the 2009 season.
By then, who knows what pay-per-view delivery system coiuld be available?
And unless NBC can be convinced it won't lose money on the NFL, I can't see it jumping back in. They are the number one network, still, so the alleged promotional value of the NFL hasn't hurt -- plus they have an Olympics again in early 2006 to help with their promotion.

 

[gluck75]

In my opinion Fredafa is correct...making NFL ST available to everybody in cable will SERIOUSLY devalue the worth of CBS and FOX's coverage...the NFL wont allow the value of those contracts to drop...

Furthermore...HornMDT...the NFL won't ADD a Saturday night game during the first 12 weeks of the season because College Football always seems to have a great game on Saturday night...and the NFLPA won't allow Thursday and Friday night games...there just isnt enough healing time for these guys from week to week.

As far letting the primetime networks select there games...great idea. Monday night football should select there first 8 games prior to the season and the final eight games at the midpoint. There will have to be some provision made to CBS and FOX for the games that ABC and ESPN take away from them.

In closing...im from New York...I think 830 for Monday night football would be fair...

J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS

 

[hornmdt]

That is good speculation hornmdt.
But the problem is that once NFL ST becomes readily available (via MSOs and DirecTV) the value of the broadcast rights falls precipitously.
Now a about 1.5% of the nation's households have access to NFL ST.
Which means that many people are able NOT to watch the local stations (and their commercials.)
Since NewsCorp in the last quarter made about 65% of its entire profit from its O&Os, it isn't likely to want millions of them potentially siphoned away from its biggest ratings attraction (except for AI, of course.)
CBS is in the same boat.
They were willing to take the loss leaders for promotional value, but even with all the promotion, how many hits has Fox come up with?
The stockholders look pretty askance at writing off close to two billion dollars (as ABC, Fox and CBS have done just this contract) for the alleged promo value of the NFL.
I

I disagree with your premise. ALL cable providers realize ST is a major part of the reason that D* has 13 mil subscribers and want to level the playing field and stop the bleeding of subscribers switching to D*. Even if the price stays the same for ST in the next contract, $400 mil x 1 is less than $400 mil x 5-10 no matter how you look at it.

ST is not FOX's to sell, it's the NFL's. FOX and CBS will have little say about how or who they sell it to.

 

[gluck75]

Hornmdt...with all due respect...you are missing my point...

If the NFL allows cable to offer NFL ST...then they will not be able to charge CBS and FOX as much for their respective contracts. Hence...if the NFL allows cable to carry NFL ST they will in fact have LESS total revenue than before...

Be aware...the NFL financial structure is far different than the NBA, NHL and MLB.

Who knows...maybe I am wrong...but it seems to make sense to me...

 

[Greg Bimson]

I don't know whether or not the Sunday Ticket contract is reduced if the NFL takes on an additional partner in the digital cable companies.

However, I will not believe that DirecTV will pay the NFL $400 million a year, and then Comcast will pay $400 million, and then Time Warner will pay $400 million. The only value to Sunday Ticket is its' exclusivity.

 

[fredfa]

Greg Bimson:
As I understand it (and I could be wrong) if the NFL sells NFL ST to another US provider, DirecTV has the right to renogotiate its contract downward based on its perceived loss of value.
-----------------------------------------------------
Hornmdt:
Look at it this way.
You have the only McDonald's franchise in a town of 50,000 people.
For that exclusivity you pay McDonald's 20% of your gross.
Now McDonald's comes in and wants to put in three more McDonald's in your town.
Do you think you should still pay the same 20% when instead of reaching all 50,000 town residents you now will be splitting them with three other stores?
If the NFL sells NFL ST (and it has every right to sell it to whoever it likes) to all cable companies, then it will be available in about 80% of the nation's homes (MSOs+DirecTV.)
Now it is available in only 13 million (and 1.6 million actually subscribe.)
Now let's hypothesize that the same percentage of those extra 67 million cable homes takes NFL ST as D* subs do (about 12.3%).
That is ANOTHER 8,241,000 eyeballs lost to the OTA networks.
Do you think they will continue to pay the same amount for their contracts (now worth $2.2 billion a year (with DirecTV adding another $400 million)?
NewsCorp, Viacom, and Disney make hundreds of millions of dollars a year because millions or viewers are watching NFL games on their Owned and Operated stations -- and watch their local commercials.
Subtract 8+ million and local commercial viewership - and the corporate profits go down - by at least a third.
MSOs may desperately want a share of NFL ST but just matching (or even beating) what DirecTV is paying for the NFL ST rights isn't going to be enough. Cable would have to pay to make up for how much LESS the networks would offer, not to mention making up for how much DirecTV would save when it renegotiated ITS deal with the NFL.
It would come to a helluva a lot more than the $400 million a year DirecTV is paying. I would bet it would come to about a third of the NFL's current contract (or $733 million + another $300 million or so to make up for what value DirecTV would lose).
Since the MSOs felt even $400 million was far too high a price to pay back in 2002, why would they be happy to pay to almost triple that now?
If you sell a pie to one person you can get $5. If you sell it to six, you can't get $30 (unless you find six really dumb people.)
Fox, Viacom and Disney and the DirecTV management ain't dumb.
And neither is the NFL.
On the other hand, given what has happened to the cable industry the past decade or so, I am not sure you can say the same about MSOs. They could have nipped the NFL ST problem in the bud years ago, but didn't.
I suspect their window of opportunity has been slammed shut.
And one last thing: Rupert Murdoch has NEVER been outbid for a sports property he really wanted.
Ask the British competitors to BSkyB.
Hell, in Australia, he bought a whole league to get its games.
Don't count on him losing the NFL on DirecTV.

 

[hornmdt]

Greg Bimson:
As I understand it (and I could be wrong) if the NFL sells NFL ST to another US provider, DirecTV has the right to renogotiate its contract downward based on its perceived loss of value.
-----------------------------------------------------
Hornmdt:
Look at it this way.
You have the only McDonald's franchise in a town of 50,000 people.
For that exclusivity you pay McDonald's 20% of your gross.
Now McDonald's comes in and wants to put in three more McDonald's in your town.
Do you think you should still pay the same 20% when instead of reaching all 50,000 town residents you now will be splitting them with three other stores?

Now let's hypothesize that the same percentage of those extra 67 million cable homes takes NFL ST as D* subs do (about 12.3%).
That is ANOTHER 8,241,000 eyeballs lost to the OTA networks.
Do you think they will continue to pay the same amount for their contracts (now worth $2.2 billion a year (with DirecTV adding another $400 million)?

MSOs may desperately want a share of NFL ST but just matching (or even beating) what DirecTV is paying for the NFL ST rights isn't going to be enough. Cable would have to pay to make up for how much LESS the networks would offer, not to mention making up for how much DirecTV would save when it renegotiated ITS deal with the NFL.
It would come to a helluva a lot more than the $400 million a year DirecTV is paying. I would bet it would come to about a third of the NFL's current contract (or $733 million + another $300 million or so to make up for what value DirecTV would lose).

Since the MSOs felt even $400 million was far too high a price to pay back in 2002, why would they be happy to pay to almost triple that now?
If you sell a pie to one person you can get $5. If you sell it to six, you can't get $30 (unless you find six really dumb people.)

The McDonald's analogy is a very good one but it fails. Here is why: "My" McDonald's has every person in town as a customer (EVERYONE, bar none, in town has D* as their provider). If three more McDonalds' offering the same thing I am (3 cable companies WITH ST) move in, I would indeed be in a position where my customer base would be reduced and right, I would feel that the 20% fee should be reduced down to 5%. However, D* is not in every home in a town leaving NO non D* subscribers. The "new" McDonalds in this analogy, would bring their own set of customers.

Now to continue to use the analogy in order to illustrate how it would really work, Three more McDonalds are placed in each of the three closest towns to mine, we now have increased the customer base of approximately 4X (D*'s customer base plus the base of three cable companies who now carry ST). All four McDonalds would continue to have their same approximate number of customers (D*'s customer base stays approx. the same and each of the three cable companies maintain their approx. customer base). Now my 20% fee is still fair and the other three should be charged 20% also (all four providers are paying the NFL the same fee for ST). But, if I were to stop selling Big Macs at my McDonalds (D* drops ST), I would lose the cross section of my customers who only liked Big Macs because they could now drive a mile or two to the next town where it was still offered (customer would switch to a different provider who has ST).

The way it is now, there are four McDonalds but McDonalds only lets one of them offer Big Macs. I personally would much prefer to own the one who gets to sell Big Macs.

As far as the advertising rights being diminished if too many people get ST, I firmly believe if they can black out my local team on ST when the local channel has it, that they have the technology to let the local channels run their ads on ST. This would be no different than the way the major networks do today. Some of the commercials are national, but many are local. I see many totally different commercials than someone in New York does when we're both watching JAG, etc. at the same time.

Therefore I don't see the rights for Sunday afternoon games going down because there are more providers of Sunday Ticket. It will likely go up as it always has. And will go up a lot if the league goes to 18 regular season games. I would not discount that happening, nor would I discount a Thursday night game. Six teams already play one each year. It would even that up a little so all teams get a short week. I personally expected the new national game would be either on Friday or Saturday night but the rumor is they want it on Thursday if there is one. The reason I gave above is the only reason I can come up with for preferring that night because the prime-time competition is brutal on Thursday night.

I'm not sure if I get the pie analogy, but yes, if I had 6 pies (6 ST contracts to different providers) I would get $30 if I charged $5/each. Now if I split my pie and let each have 1 slice I would indeed probably just get $5 for my pie. But that would be like saying that in any given city where ST is offered by multiple providers, each provider would only get a portion of games and none of each provider's games could be offered by any of the other providers in town. That would mean they each have a 1/6 "exclusive" portion of ST, so the amount they would pay would likely total the same as would a one full compliment of games contract. That scenario will never happen.

Until the next TV contract comes up for bid, D* has always previously had exclusive rights for renewal, which they do NOT have this time. Therefore the cable companies were not allowed to bid on ST in 2002, unless D* let them. The next time, I look for every major cable company to buy ST. D* will also keep it too because they know they would lose about 1.5 million customers if they do not.