Volcanic Eruptions

[Foxbat]

#50 was a fairly short episode, it looked like it started around 10:15 HST and had wrapped up by 18:00 HST.

 

[meStevo]

Not the usual inflation pattern post-eruption.

View: https://youtu.be/64oq-zJNjnk

 

[Foxbat]

50 and done?

 

[meStevo]

Geologist discusses Kilauea's activity


View: https://youtu.be/sQaF85OEnE8

Predicting Episode 51

• Revised Timeline: The USGS has forecast that the next eruption—Episode 51—is expected to occur between July 11th and July 15th. The prediction was pushed back from original estimates due to variations in monitoring data [00:14 Opens in a new window ].
• The Volcanic Tilt Deflation: Predicting the exact timing is difficult because the summit tilt meters showed a recent lull—a secondary deflationary trend or dip in the inflationary signal [03:42 Opens in a new window ]. This variation makes a linear timeline hard to pin down [04:24 Opens in a new window ].
• Eruption Thresholds: Scientists track a localized threshold of roughly 8 to 9 micro radians of tilt before an eruptive episode triggers [04:05 Opens in a new window ].

Summit Vent Behavior & Low Seismicity

• Active Vents: Two main vents are degassing at the crater: the north and south vents. While the north vent has been the primary lava fountaining producer for the last seven episodes, the south vent remains open and heavily active in gas output [00:58 Opens in a new window ].
• Low Earthquake Frequency: Seismicity has remained unusually low near the summit (only 5 to 20 small earthquakes over the week) [05:45 Opens in a new window ]. Because the volcano erupts frequently every few weeks, pressure does not build up enough to break major underground rock systems [06:04 Opens in a new window ].

Changes to the Landscape (Episode 1 vs. Episode 50)

• Crater Filling Up: Comparisons between Episode 1 (December 2024) and Episode 50 (June 2027) show that the crater floor has been filled significantly with lava, rising by roughly two-thirds of its original depth [07:55 Opens in a new window ].
• Tephra Cone Formation: Due to powerful and consistent trade winds carrying tephra (volcanic debris) during lava fountaining, a distinct mound or hill has accumulated downwind to the southwest of the vents [08:16 Opens in a new window ].

Retrospective on Episode 50

• Massive Fountains: Episode 50 occurred on June 27th and lasted about 7 hours. At its peak, lava fountaining reached incredible heights of up to 1,000 feet (over 300 meters) [06:58 Opens in a new window ].
• Scientific Research: USGS scientists are actively helicoptering onto the crater floor to sample older tephra layers, analyzing their chemistry and size to compare historical eruptive cycles with Kīlauea's current sequence [09:58 Opens in a new window ].
  
  
  

 

[meStevo]

Eruption expected to start today.

 

[Foxbat]

Of course, I was totally unable to watch as I was traveling. Big Island Video News to the rescue:

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[meStevo]

View: https://youtu.be/ifUSV_iOSvU

 

[meStevo]

View: https://youtu.be/cqM9zRWVLVE

 

[meStevo]

Heck of a show in Guatemala.

View: https://youtu.be/TiPEFOvgUfU



View: https://youtu.be/1b4tQJS6bjk

 

[dishstaller]

One important thing to keep in mind is what causes these volcanos to erupt in the first place. Now when it comes to Hawaii, that is what is called a hot spot but with all others, it is due to plate subduction. One tectonic plate is plunging beneath another one. That is why you see a string of volcanos along the Pacific Northwest. Volcanic activity means these plates are moving which if a section of the plate is locked, that increases the probability of a mega-quake.

 

[meStevo]

One important thing to keep in mind is what causes these volcanos to erupt in the first place. Now when it comes to Hawaii, that is what is called a hot spot but with all others, it is due to plate subduction. One tectonic plate is plunging beneath another one. That is why you see a string of volcanos along the Pacific Northwest. Volcanic activity means these plates are moving which if a section of the plate is locked, that increases the probability of a mega-quake.

There are numerous other hot spot active regions (like Yellowstone) and many other mechanisms than subduction (divergent boundaries, continental rift, intraplate)

Volcanism doesn't indicate plate movement either, and isn't directly tied to megathrust activity / indicators.

 

[meStevo]

View: https://youtu.be/qin_NzEuKuU

 

[Foxbat]

The new West vent saw a little action during Episode 53 of the ongoing Kīlauea eruption.

​

 

[Foxbat]

Episode 54 of the ongoing eruption of Kīlauea is underway. Precursor flows started this morning, leading to a wide fountain out of the North vent.

---

Alert Level: WATCH, Color Code: ORANGE 2026-08-25 20:43:21 UTC
HVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice

Volcano: Kilauea (VNUM #332010)

Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Issued: Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 10:43 AM HST
Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Notice Number: 2026/H404
Location: N 19 deg 25 min W 155 deg 17 min
Elevation: 4091 ft (1247 m)
Area: Hawaii

Summary: Episode 54 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at 10:30 HST on August 25, 2026.

Volcanic Activity:
Episode 54 of lava fountaining in Halemaʻumaʻu began at the summit of Kīlauea began at 10:30 HST on August 25, 2026. North vent fountains are currently about 50-75 feet (15-20 meters) meters high and are expected to grow rapidly to about 500 feet (150 meters) in the next 1-2 hours.

Weak spattering began yesterday and became more continuous after midnight. Overflows from the north vent began after 6 a.m. this morning, with continuous low-level fountaining starting around 9 a.m.

 

[dishstaller]

There are numerous other hot spot active regions (like Yellowstone)

I didn't say Hawaii was the only example of a hotspot. This entire thread is about observable volcanoes so there was no need to mention Yellowstone.

Volcanism doesn't indicate plate movement either, and isn't directly tied to megathrust activity / indicators.

I'm sorry but that is just plain not accurate. You don't even have to read any books on the subject to come to this conclusion. I stated if the plates were LOCKED, it would increase the chances of a mega quake and that is a fundamental teaching of plate tectonics. A simple Google search will do.

Google Search

 

[meStevo]

I didn't say Hawaii was the only example of a hotspot.

Now when it comes to Hawaii, that is what is called a hot spot but with all others, it is due to plate subduction.

That's why I said

There are numerous other hot spot active regions (like Yellowstone) and many other mechanisms than subduction (divergent boundaries, continental rift, intraplate)

Perhaps you intended to add 'mentioned in this thread'.

This however is just missing or misunderstanding context / nuance:

Volcanic activity means these plates are moving which if a section of the plate is locked, that increases the probability of a mega-quake.

Volcanism doesn't indicate plate movement either, and isn't directly tied to megathrust activity / indicators.

I'm sorry but that is just plain not accurate. You don't even have to read any books on the subject to come to this conclusion. I stated if the plates were LOCKED, it would increase the chances of a mega quake and that is a fundamental teaching of plate tectonics. A simple Google search will do.
Google Search

The Cascades are a good example of this. Volcanism has not changed based on the state of the related plates, which have been largely locked for centuries. You're attempting to preach fundamentals nobody is arguing - that volcanism exists at plate boundaries. But you were tying volcanic activity to the state of the plates (locked / otherwise) when it typically is not an indicator of whether plates are moving or not (the google search that meant nothing without that context)

Or - I'll call your google search and raise you a google search with context: Google Search

But lets just move on and all agree science is rad, and volcanoes are cool.

 

[dishstaller]

But lets just move on and all agree science is rad, and volcanoes are cool.

Agreed. I even notice conflicting ideas when studying this topic. I have seen Iceland used as an example for different types of volcanoes.

My main concern has for years been the Cascadia region. If you haven't watched it, Nick Zentner did a great presentation on Great Earthquakes of the Pacific Northwest. When he takes the data from the 2011 Japan earthquake and flips it over to a possible, I repeat POSSIBLE, prediction of what the coastline of OR and WA could see.....that was very sobering.
When I emailed Chris Goldfinger about this possibility he blew it off as nonsense. Two great minds, two opposite mindsets.
I saw recently where Goldfinger took trench samples off the CA coast in the Ferndale area. They have now found conclusive evidence that there have been times in history where a Cascadia mega quake triggered the San Andreas OR the other way around. Such an event nowadays would pretty much be a nation killing event.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ7Qc3bsxjI&pp=ygUqZ3JlYXQgZWFydGhxdWFrZXMgb2YgdGhlIHBhY2lmaWMgbm9ydGh3ZXN0

 

[Foxbat]

Big Island Video News report on Episode 54:

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[meStevo]

View: https://youtu.be/Ly3kd1Thihc

 

[Foxbat]

Thought we might have a doubleheader of Hurricane Lowell and Kīlauea, but the lava flows are finally picking up.

Episode 55 should start in the next 72 hours.