What if there really is not a tablet market? Only an iPad market?

[mike123abc]

What If the Tablet is Just An Apple Phenomenon?

Let's look at the facts so far. There was the Galaxy Tab and the Motorola Xoom, which were put in direct competition to the iPad and both bombed, despite an attractive feature set. We will soon get a new Tab and soon the Blackberry Playbook. The Playbook has an interesting opportunity due to its Blackberry platform, but it is unlikely to create the kind of waiting lines Apple is used to. Let's give the Playbook a shot, but if it flops as well, how many more failures do we need until we figure out that there is something inherently wrong with the concept of copying the iPad?

Tablets Perhaps Just A Blip in Time, Says Microsoft

We could now simply say that this is a typical Microsoft position, to discredit any product category the company missed - such as the tablet in this case. But we could also take the direction and wonder whether Mundie has a point: What if only excitement carries the tablet category at this time? Are the Galaxy tab and Xoom just bad iPad copies or are there signs that the tablet category is just hot for Apple right now and not everyone else? Your guess is as good as mine.

Interesting theories. What if the only people that really like tablets are predisposed to be Apple customers? I guess we will have a much better picture this time next year. Given all the tablets coming to market this year, if Apple's market share does not really slide, perhaps these articles are on to something.

Look at how many attempts there have been to copy the iPod. Perhaps it is a similar situation. The iPad works so well and is reasonably priced, why go with something else even if it has a few small improvements and miss out on the whole Apple ecosystem?

 

[rockymtnhigh]

I like tablets, even the ipad, but I am far from pre-disposed to be an Apple customer.

Seems to me the problem is that Apple came out with something slick and everybody else is running around trying to come up with a viable competitor. Yes, I own a Galaxy Tab, thought it was great, but I realized it was not an ipad killer. The Xoom runs the hallowed Honeycomb OS and all we hear is that the OS is "far from prime time." Apple comes out with the ipad 2, which eliminates the "fat pad," it is lighter, faster, has the cameras everybody was whining about missing from the first one (even though in the two weeks I have had my ipad 2, I have never used them), and has - if Apple's claim is correct - 65,000 ipad apps. AND many of the apps are much better than their Android counterparts.

I think what google has to do is find a way to put the time and energy into making their Tablet OS smooth and functional, but the problem is by the time they do that there will be 130,000 ipad apps. Its only now that the Android Marketplace for phone apps is starting to get competitive. Its a huge advantage for Apple.

the frustrating part is that while the APps are cool, the iOS ecosystem leaves much to be desired. But that's only a problem from the perspective of someone who has tasted Android goodness in the Galaxy Tab.

 

[TheForce]

Good thought, Mike. You are the only one I know who has spent a considerable time with both. I thought your comment on the cameras was quite a match to mine and I would likely be one to beg for the cameras. Personally, I see far, far more value in having the better 2 camera system in my phone than the ipad.

After the first 2 months, I never considered any of the competitive products an ipad Killer. To achieve that a tablet would need to compete not only in features, but also price, and by a lot. So far that has been shown to be a nearly impossible task. Instead, I see all the competition as killing off each other, not the ipad. It's not that these competitors are so bad, just that the ipad is so good.

One thing you mentioned that I still find difficult to grasp and that is the size. I don't get the minor size weight reduction of the ipad2 that significant over the ipad1. The sice of my ipad1 has never been a big deal hear and I never hear others ( besides you ) even have made an issue of it.

In comparing the infrastructure between my Android phone, the Thunderbolt, and my ipad, I think of them as near equal in that the apps are either 90% well done or complete garbage. I don't really care about 65,000 or 130,000 or 5000 apps How about giving me the dozen I need working 100%! I just spent $25 on apps to give me offline maps for my GPS on the Thunderbolt. So far they all suck! I had a great one on my windows Mobile htc TP2 called Tracky that worked 100% The concept here is to select an area you want to work in and then let the map build from Google Maps normally. However, what Tracky does in the background, is save all the tiles to your SD card in a folder and the next time you access that region, it loads from the stored maps as oppose to downloading until your buffered space is maxed out. I had close to 10Gb of map data stored and didn't need an internet signal to use my GPS. This worked great when I was out in the country. I understand that TomTom has signed an agreement with htc to build them an offline GPS but so far only two European phones have the first rendition of this and it comes with the phone. htc may be the first to offer a true GPS offline widget in the near future.
At one time I thought the ipad would be a great GPS screen for the car but frankly, same issue there are no really great offline GPS apps for the ipad.

MY personal preference is to develop synergism between my phone device I have with me all the time and my ipad, the device I use when I need a larger screen. Only one needs to connect to the internet as long as it's connection can be tethered to the other but since I have the phone 100% of the time, and the ipad much less due to its larger size, the internet connection is best served on my phone. Similar for my camera. Given a choice, I prefer the camera on the phone. Because the phone is with me most all the time, I need my battery to last a long time and absent that, the ability to quickly swap to a spare as needed. That eliminates the iphone unless I carry one of those Fat Albert battery attachments. Also eliminating the iphone would be the lack of tethering, although that policy seems to be changing. I know about jailbreaking but that adds a maintenance issue as well. Besides, now that I have tasted the speed of LTE, I don't want any slow 3G phone, ever! I think the iphone5 will have it's work cut out for it competing against the technical capability of the Thunderbolt. The only thing holding it back is the lack of advertising. That and the common reality that all Android devices are short lived due to the constant self obsolescence of competing hardware. MY T-Bolt was out 2 weeks and there was already talk of it's successor. When an iphone version is released you can be sure of at minimum 1 year it is the top of the line and then the second year, minor changes. It's almost like a Toyota Camery or Ford Mustang. With Android, your device is outdated in a week or two; with tablets, maybe 3 months.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

From the first time I played with an ipad 1 it just felt heavy and bulky, and coming from the world of a Kindle as a tablet-type device (if in form factor only), I did not like it. The ipad 2 is considerably lighter, it is slimmer, and seemed more appealing to me. I only was attracted to the idea of a ipad 2 because I was finding that when I was trying to use work documents (articles in PDF or Word format) that I found that 7" screen of the Tab to be constraining, and limiting. While the Tab feels great in the hand, is very compact and light (even though it is thicker than the ipad 1, it is half the weight), I was slowly being drawn to the larger screen device.

In comparing ipad v Android tablet applications I have seen evidence that more effort is put into the ipad versions (see the NY Times ipad v NY Times Android Tablet apps), and in many cases, there simply was no Android app to compare (CNN, ABC News, PBS, etc...). Yet, because the Tab scaled all apps from 4" to 7" with no pixelization issues, it wasn't a huge deal. Whereas on an ipad, an iphone app running at 2X size just looks like crap (Facebook is a great example; I don't even run it, and just use the desktop web version). AND there simply is more room for creativity with a 10" workspace than a 7" one for app developers. It is clear to me though that much more effort seems to be going into app development for the ipad than for Android.

The one thing I do not like on the ipad as much as the Galaxy Tab is the e-book reader. YES, I know I said for work documents I wanted the larger screen, and for that purpose, I DO prefer the ipad, but when reading a Kindle, I find the ipad to be less comfortable, and almost too big. I think the Galaxy Tab's Kindle reader and the REAL Kindle are very comparable. And the Tab even had volume control buttons that could be used to advance pages.

In the end, to get back to this thread's topic, I am not convinced that the tablet world will be ipad only, but I think a lot of work has to be done to make competitors be able to provide a product that will be as smooth and well, functional, as the ipad. AND yes, the device I just bought will be obsolete -- next year when the ipad 3 comes out (although probably not really obsolete, since my first generation ipod touch is still in use in my house. But my over-priced Galaxy Tab was obsolete 2 weeks after I got it. And the parade of Android products continues to come out, one after another, splitting the market, none getting any real traction.

 

[moosehaed]

What everyone forgets is that Microsoft is a software company, unlike apple which controls everything that goes into their product.

 

[lakebum431]

rocky, I'm not sure I'd call 80 grams "considerably lighter"

 

[rockymtnhigh]

rocky, I'm not sure I'd call 80 grams "considerably lighter"

I would, just in terms of the feel. Nowhere as bulky. But irrelevant to this thread I guess.

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[TheForce]

Mike- How did you get the sent from ipad sig to turn on. I selected it but it has never showed up.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Mike- How did you get the sent from ipad sig to turn on. I selected it but it has never showed up.

No idea. Turned it on in posting settings. I also turned off show signatures in reading settings, but not sure that did anything.

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[Steve Mehs]

I think (along with hope and pray) the iPad with not be synonymous with the tablet market like the iPod was with the MP3 Player market. The iPad never impressed me and I always founfd t pretty lame. It’s a giant iPod Touch. With Android tablets, right now there’s too many off brand manufactures, Acer, Asus, Colby, etc. Once these are weeded out I think the three major Android phone manufactures, Motorola, Samsung and HTC have a lot to bring to the table and will come out with some very competitive products and as Honeycomb continues to progress, it will no doubt blow away iOS just like current Android for phones blows away the iPhone. As soon as a 10” HTC tablet comes out for Sprint I’ll buy it. The Evo View looks cool but I will not buy a DOA size tablet.

I can't see how or where The Blackberry Playbook will fit into all of this, but that will probably flop.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Last year I thought the ipad was a giant ipod touch, but after using it for about 30 minutes it became pretty clear it was far from it.

Like it or not, Apple set the bar pretty high with this device in terms of its hardware/software combo, and while other manufacturers may come up with better hardware features, somebody needs to provide an OS and software that competes. It will be an uphill battle for Google. They can do it, but smart decisions need to be made.

 

[TheForce]

Last year I thought the ipad was a giant ipod touch, but after using it for about 30 minutes it became pretty clear it was far from it.

My 15 year old nephew said it best. Ipod is like an iphone without the phone. Ipad is like a laptop with a touch screen.

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[bhelms]

...Ipad is like a laptop with a touch screen...

That's the way it has turned-out for me! I am in the market for a new LT, one to last me for another 10 years like my recently-retired one did. However, since I acquired my 'Pad1 and have gotten comfortable with it, the whole LT purchase has gone on the back burner and might stay there for quite some time! For day-to-day on-line stuff, my 'Pad is doing 95% of what I need to do. I save the real "computing" for the office...when I'm getting paid to do it. I also thought I would need the remote BT keyboard to make my 'Pad suit me, but I hardly use it. The on-screen keypad works great once you're used to it...!

PS - the 'Pad is the only Apple product I ever have owned. I am far from being an Apple fanboy...but I do hold a position in APPL...

 

[mike123abc]

Gartner Says Apple iOS to Dominate the Media Tablet Market Through 2015, Owning More Than Half of It for the Next Three Years

Despite mounting competition from other operating systems (OSs), Apple’s iOS will continue to own the majority of the worldwide media tablet through 2015, according to Gartner, Inc. Due to the success of Apple’s iPad, iOS will account for 69 percent of media tablet OSs in 2011, and represent 47 percent of the media tablet market in 2015.

If Apple manages to stay #1 in tablets for 5 years (2010-2015), it is possible that they will own the market. Their installed base will become like windows.

 

[diogen]

Here is a different angle on the same question
Android, Steve Jobs, and Apple's '90%' tablet share ? The Register
Hard to argue with

Apple is fantastic at fostering growth in new markets. It is terrible at maintaining market share. Why? Because Apple is not a market-share leader, with very few exceptions (e.g., the digital music market). Indeed, Apple's high-margin, premium-pricing business model demands that the company cede market share as it hoards the high end of a market.

And the prediction

Sure, the Xoom was handicapped from the start...But Android's success isn't about the Xoom or any other particular device.
It's about all of them. Lots and lots and lots of them. That's how Android is winning the smartphone race.

If manufacturers consider the tablet market as worthy as the smartphone market, Apple's marketshare in it will mirror the dynamic of the smartphone OS market.
It might take longer if Apple decides to live with less profit per device, but its very success will make it commodity with pricing to match...

Diogen.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Yes, lots of them, and lots of Android phones, running lots of different variants of the OS, with lots of different skins, and lots of confusion on the part of consumers. Right now you can be running a el cheapo e-reader Android tablet running eclair, a Galaxy Tab running Froyo, not even sure what the Nook Color is running, a Xoom and a handful of others running Honeycomb. With a wide range of skins, from sense to moto blur to plain jane froyo or gingerbread or honeycomb. Not even talking about custom roms. And a bunch of manufacturers to boot.

Google's greatest advantage is its greatest disadvantage.

Whereas Apple has basically the same iOS running on the ipad 2, ipad 1, iphone, and new gen ipod touches. One manufacturer. One OS. Simplicity. So simple a monkey could use it. Of course, if you don't like the restrictions of the iOS you need to go rogue. But even that can only take you so far.

I think there IS a tablet market, and it is NOT ipad only, but when you consider there are 15M ipads in the wild, and I think 800,000 Galaxy Tabs WORLD-WIDE, with what, a couple hundred thousand in the US, its an uphill battle.

 

[diogen]

Google's greatest advantage is its greatest disadvantage.

Of course it is.
I'd go as far as claiming this won't be fixed. Because it can't. Comes with the territory.
I think (hope?) they will find the compromise between keeping partners not pissed and keeping adding features.
And I'll believe in this stupid "You are not open!" BS when Linus says it...

The question is: will the tablet OS market split between Android and iOS resemble the same for smartphone OS?
I think yes, despite all the growing pains. For the reason the linked article presents.

It is reasonable and makes sense...

Diogen.

 

[mike123abc]

Here is a different angle on the same question
Android, Steve Jobs, and Apple's '90%' tablet share ? The Register
Hard to argue with

And the prediction


If manufacturers consider the tablet market as worthy as the smartphone market, Apple's marketshare in it will mirror the dynamic of the smartphone OS market.
It might take longer if Apple decides to live with less profit per device, but its very success will make it commodity with pricing to match...

Diogen.

If Apple gives up the majority of the tablet market, they will probably make the most profit like the do in smartphones and computers.

 

[diogen]

If Apple gives up the majority of the tablet market, they will probably make the most profit like the do in smartphones and computers.

Likely.

But there is a difference between the computer and smartphone market.

A similarly (to an Apple) configured Windows PC costs not much more than half of the Apple.
At the same time similarly featured smartphones (iPhone vs. Android) differ in price much less.
And that was already enough to wipe iPhone's dominating marketshare in about a year.

Hence, smartphone manufacturers have better profit margins than the Dell's of this world.
HTC's recent report is the best proof of it.

Diogen.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Likely.

But there is a difference between the computer and smartphone market.

A similarly (to an Apple) configured Windows PC costs not much more than half of the Apple.
At the same time similarly featured smartphones (iPhone vs. Android) differ in price much less.
And that was already enough to wipe iPhone's dominating marketshare in about a year.

Hence, smartphone manufacturers have better profit margins than the Dell's of this world.
HTC's recent report is the best proof of it.

Diogen.

How much of apple's loss in the smartphone market was due to the exclusive AT&T contract for the iPhone ?

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