What if there really is not a tablet market? Only an iPad market?

[diogen]

How much of apple's loss in the smartphone market was due to the exclusive AT&T contract for the iPhone ?

No idea.
Not much would be my guess.

It might well be the case that Android got their foot in the door due to iPhone not running CDMA.
But that would mean the majority of Android sales should be in the non-GSM market.

Not sure that's the case.

Diogen.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

No idea.
Not much would be my guess.

Diogen.

While the question was rhetorical, I am not so sure about the not much answer. Android benefitted immensely by the iPhone not being on Verizon or sprint. Lots of people who would have jumped at an iPhone, but settled for Android because it was the only game in ton. Sure, many of them came to love their Droid, but I have no doubt that if the iPhone was available back in fall 2009 when the Droid line was released on Verizon, it would be a very different game right now. Not only would Verizon probably not have embarked on the massive droid advertising campaign, but it would have had much less momentum.

Sent from my iPad using SatelliteGuys

 

[diogen]

Well, I guess we'll never know the answer to this "what if" scenario...

I will admit that the US plays an important role in the cell market innovation. But is far from dominating it.

And the world runs on GSM. Hence, the US story about the Android vs. iOS "love" doesn't have a chance to change the world story, I think.

Diogen.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Of course if there wasn't an exclusivity contract, I'm sure St. Jobs would have found a way to put a CDMA chip in it earlier.

You are right, it is what if, but I am not sure that the same rules will hold with tablets as with smart phones.

And with that, I will go back to trying to figure out how to get my Galaxy Tab (which apparently is not magical) to install the new Verizon update, which because it was rooted, won't install -- even though I unrooted it.

 

[diogen]

...I'm sure St. Jobs would have found a way to put a CDMA chip in it earlier.

I'm not sure about that...
Apple's goal is to make one SKU (8GB/16GB/32GB isn't really a differentiator on the manufacturing level),
control everything from CPU (A4, A5, etc.) to assembly, get the volume discount on the remaining parts
by making a million units per week and sell (almost) everything in their stores. No profit sharing!

And St. Jobs will make sure the line up starts well in advance.

Having two models - GSM and CDMA - doesn't really fit this picture. At least at the beginning.

I believe they wouldn't bother about CDMA even today if it wouldn't be for Android meteoric rise...

Diogen.

 

[TheForce]

Mike- Don't forget that back in the early days of iphone, Apple was having trouble getting enough memory made to meet their limited demand. There was a time when even AT&T had a 6 week waiting list for the iphone. I don't think the exclusive on the iphone held Apple back until the iphone 3's were out. If we want to dream how things would have been if... we need to start with assumption that Apple was capable of meeting an increased demand too. Ever notice how Apple seems to have trouble meeting the demand for their new iphones and ipads? Even now.

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Mike- Don't forget that back in the early days of iphone, Apple was having trouble getting enough memory made to meet their limited demand. There was a time when even AT&T had a 6 week waiting list for the iphone. I don't think the exclusive on the iphone held Apple back until the iphone 3's were out. If we want to dream how things would have been if... we need to start with assumption that Apple was capable of meeting an increased demand too. Ever notice how Apple seems to have trouble meeting the demand for their new iphones and ipads? Even now.

True enough. Darn near impossible to find an iPad 2 these days.

Was just musing in response to the claim of the meteoric rise of Android. Don't get me wrong, I am glad that they were exclusive and provided the window of opportunity for Android.

Sent from my iPad using SatelliteGuys

 

[diogen]

I am not sure that the same rules will hold with tablets as with smart phones.

That can very much be the case.
In one-two years I think the tablet market will be ruled by the WiFi-only devices. Hence, networks' role will be dramatically diminished.

Therefore, if the smartphone battle for dominance was influenced by the networks, the tablet market can turn out following a different scenario...

Diogen.

 

[diogen]

A nice review of the RIM PlayBook by AnandTech
The BlackBerry PlayBook Review - AnandTech :: Your Source for Hardware Analysis and News

This opening paragraph of the conclusion is something that wholeheartedly agree with

One mistake I believe a lot of members of the press make is assuming that today's two-horse race is representative of the future of this industry. While Apple and Google are clearly out to a substantial lead, there are still more revolutions that will take place between now and when the mobile market finally matures. I'm not saying that Apple or Google won't end up on top, I'm just saying that it's not guaranteed they will either.

Diogen.

 

[mperdue]

The problem with Android tablets is fragmentation. When developing apps its good to know that there is a minimum set of features to target. With the iOS devices you can count on this across the board - iPod, iPhone and iPad all have a minimum feature set that is consistent. Certainly you have issues if you need GPS or gyroscopes but you still know something about the market going into it if you use the optional features.

That's just not the case with Android where some devices have touch screens and some don't; some touch screen devices have multi-touch and some don't; the list goes on... This isn't so much of a problem with phones since their primary use is to make phone calls. It can be a big problem with tablets where the primary use is to run apps. It's not an insurmountable problem and Google could still mandate a minimum feature set. It's something that needs to be addressed.

 

[RaysReviews]

I just saw on the news that apparently tablet sales are overtaking PC sales now:

Tablet Sales to Overtake Desktop PCs by 2013 - Seeking Alpha

 

[lakebum431]

well, not now. the article says by 2013. big difference

 

[navychop]

I think Bill Gates just pissed himself.

 

[mike123abc]

Just as netbooks proved there is a large market of people that just want to surf the web, the iPad has proven people do not have qualms about using a tablet either. There are just a lot of consumers that want to surf and consume content. Perhaps more than half the home users. I do not know anyone that is a "gamer" on a PC any more. Now they are all Xbox/PS3.

I could easily see the number of tablets sold a year outpacing PCs, especially if most household users go with tablets.

But, the current weakness of the iPad will have to be solved first. The ability to really use it without a PC. They need the ability to back up completely in the cloud and recieve all updates without a PC. Apple needs to eliminate any reason to hook it up to a PC.

 

[Foxbat]

I agree with that. We were talking at work and the biggest issue people have with the iPad (and iPhone, for that matter) is the need to dock them with their computer. It's not a big deal to me since it's how I charge my iPhone, but I can see the beauty of having a solo iPad that synchs to the Cloud. Maybe not now that AT&T caps my DSL at 150 GB, but for people like my Dad who just needed a portable way to read e-mails and surf the web, the iPad would have been perfect.

Apple has "created" this new market for usable tablet computing and now needs to cut it free of the docking requirement.

Which makes me wonder, how does Android handle initial activation? Is it ready to go, straight out of the box?

 

[rockymtnhigh]

I agree with that. We were talking at work and the biggest issue people have with the iPad (and iPhone, for that matter) is the need to dock them with their computer. It's not a big deal to me since it's how I charge my iPhone, but I can see the beauty of having a solo iPad that synchs to the Cloud. Maybe not now that AT&T caps my DSL at 150 GB, but for people like my Dad who just needed a portable way to read e-mails and surf the web, the iPad would have been perfect.

Apple has "created" this new market for usable tablet computing and now needs to cut it free of the docking requirement.

Which makes me wonder, how does Android handle initial activation? Is it ready to go, straight out of the box?

Android is ready to go, straight out of the box. No need for a PC, unless you want to transfer files.


As far as my ipad, I install apps from the ipad, and transfer files using Dropbox. BUT stuck having to transfer apps to itunes to back them up, and of course to use it when I want to transfer music.

The initial sync with itunes when you pull the ipad out of the box is really disappointing, slow, just not very magical. When I got my Galaxy Tab, I hit the power button, 30 seconds later I was logging into my google account, and five minutes later, once the sync was done, I was good to go. With the ipad, itunes hiccuped on the backup (a documented W7 problem), and took an hour.

 

[DodgerKing]

well, not now. the article says by 2013. big difference

Won't happen. They are basing it on a linear regression of current trends. Sales will slow down or not increase as quickly. New items always take a huge leap when they are first introduced. It will eventually plateau

 

[rockymtnhigh]

Won't happen. They are basing it on a linear regression of current trends. Sales will slow down or not increase as quickly. New items always take a huge leap when they are first introduced. It will eventually plateau

Not sure about that. Given that 70% of ipad 2 customers were NEW customers to the tablet world. The PC is NOT dead, it has a very important role, but it will not dominate in the future for general consumers of content. Just my gut speaking of course.

 

[TheForce]

My recent trip to NAB showed for the first time seeing more ipads in use than laptops by travelers. It's also convenient since you don't have to part the laptop from your carry on bag to go through security. Nice that I didn't have to deal with that issue this trip. Although I did take my laptop. I packed it with lots of padding in my checked bag and only pulled the hard drive which I carried in my carry-on for security reasons. MY Dell has the hard drive in a drawer for quick removal.

I do agree that the weakness of the ipad is the need to use it with a PC or MAC but I feel this will soon be a thing of the past. Mike you said you don't need a PC with Android, but that may be application specific. I have HTC sync necessary to be able to use Audible. May be a way around that but there are also some of the map programs I checked out last week that required me to unpack and configure on the PC before installing and activating on Android. The claim that Android doesn't need a PC may be application specific.

 

[Steve Mehs]

I don’t see tablets taking over the sales of desktops and laptops and I definitely don’t see a tablet as a suitable laptop replacement. My desktop has a nice 23” display, when I get a laptop it will have a nice 17” display. A tablet maxes out at 10” and when you have the on screen keyboard open a good chunk of your screen real estate is gone especially if you have one of those yucky DOA 7” things. With tablets lacking things like optical storage, USB ports for offloading content to flash drives, a LAN port, decent processors to be able to handle real tasks, tablets are a joke compared to current laptops and desktops.

I see tablets as a toy, a gadget that makes life in some ways more easier and something to play around with, but I don’t see writing a term paper on one, or even watching video for extended periods of time. And who knows tablets may end up like netbooks. Anyone remember those things? Hottest piece of technology 2 years ago, today all but irrelevant.