There's an interesting article on the Digital Media Thoughts websight that seems to have a reasonable argument on why Blue Ray will fail and HD DVD will prevail:
Blu-Ray Players Are So Unbelievably Expensive
Posted by Jeremy Charette @ Saturday, July 1, 2006
HD DVD and Blu-Ray have hit the market, more titles are being released every week, and already, Blu-Ray players are significantly more expensive than their HD DVD counterparts. Why? One answer: PS3. Crazy, you say? Think about it. Sony has announced that the PS3 will cost $500-600 USD. It's banking on the PS3 to get a Blu-Ray player into millions of homes (disguised as a video game console). If standalone Blu-Ray players come in below that price point, they may sabotage sales that would have otherwise gone to the PS3 (as a "cheaper" alternative). Keeping the PS3 price point well below an entry-level (sic) Blu-Ray player drives demand up even further than it already is. Sony may be manipulating the price point of current Blu-Ray players so that the PS3 looks like a relative bargain. Might sound far-fetched, but remember that the PS2 sold a huge number of units in Japan at launch because it was less expensive than the standalone DVD players of the day. (Much to Sony's disappointment, as it resulted in a low attach rate, and huge profit losses as a result, but that's another story.)
This is where Sony is making a critical mistake. By the time the PS3 launches, we'll likely be seeing $300 HD DVD players (half the price of the PS3). Microsoft is rumored to be releasing an add-on HD DVD drive at the $150-225 price point, and is also rumored to be offering a bundle package (console & HD DVD drive) for around $400. HD DVD players will have a huge price advantage over competing Blu-Ray players, and the Xbox 360 bundle will look like a bargain compared to the PS3. Sony's strategy might have worked...a year ago. But by November it will be too little, too late.
Here's a discussion thread on the subject:
Blue Ray Price Manipulation Cause of High Prices
Blu-Ray Players Are So Unbelievably Expensive
Posted by Jeremy Charette @ Saturday, July 1, 2006
HD DVD and Blu-Ray have hit the market, more titles are being released every week, and already, Blu-Ray players are significantly more expensive than their HD DVD counterparts. Why? One answer: PS3. Crazy, you say? Think about it. Sony has announced that the PS3 will cost $500-600 USD. It's banking on the PS3 to get a Blu-Ray player into millions of homes (disguised as a video game console). If standalone Blu-Ray players come in below that price point, they may sabotage sales that would have otherwise gone to the PS3 (as a "cheaper" alternative). Keeping the PS3 price point well below an entry-level (sic) Blu-Ray player drives demand up even further than it already is. Sony may be manipulating the price point of current Blu-Ray players so that the PS3 looks like a relative bargain. Might sound far-fetched, but remember that the PS2 sold a huge number of units in Japan at launch because it was less expensive than the standalone DVD players of the day. (Much to Sony's disappointment, as it resulted in a low attach rate, and huge profit losses as a result, but that's another story.)
This is where Sony is making a critical mistake. By the time the PS3 launches, we'll likely be seeing $300 HD DVD players (half the price of the PS3). Microsoft is rumored to be releasing an add-on HD DVD drive at the $150-225 price point, and is also rumored to be offering a bundle package (console & HD DVD drive) for around $400. HD DVD players will have a huge price advantage over competing Blu-Ray players, and the Xbox 360 bundle will look like a bargain compared to the PS3. Sony's strategy might have worked...a year ago. But by November it will be too little, too late.
Here's a discussion thread on the subject:
Blue Ray Price Manipulation Cause of High Prices
