Swanni's HDTV Predictions: A Report Card

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http://www.tvpredictions.com/hdreportcard121806.htm

'The Great Swanni' looks into his rear mirror to see if his 2006 'HDTV Crystal Ball' was clear or cloudy.
By Phillip Swann

Washington, D.C. (December 18, 2006) -- In 2005, I made 12 predictions for High-Definition TV in 2006. Was my crystal ball as clear as the high-def picture? Let's take a look: (And look for my "2007 HDTV Predictions" within the next week.)


Prediction #1:
HDTV Sales Will Jump In the First Two Months of 2006.
I said the combination of three events -- Congress passing a new Digital TV deadline for 2009; and the February broadcast of the Super Bowl and the 2006 Winter Olympics -- would fuel a high-def sales surge in the first two months. Right on the money, according to research studies and sales figures. This has been a big year for high-def and the first two months of the year got the ball rolling.
Grade: A

Prediction #2:
The Plasma-LCD-DLP-SED Flat-Screen TV War Will Spur More Interest in HDTV.
I also wrote: "However, the battle will also confuse consumers. People are unfamiliar with these arcane industry terms, such as LCD and DLP. They might be interested in buying a high-def set, but they're not sure if they're buying the right one. The industry needs to do a better job of making the choice easier for consumers."

Oh, boy, was I right on this one. There have been several consumer research studies this year showing that consumers are extremely interested in HD, but highly confused by the various terms and technology.
Grade: A

Prediction #3:
DIRECTV Will Emerge As the HDTV Leader
.
I thought DIRECTV would launch their two new HD satellites this year, but they pushed back the launch until 2007. So, I was a year ahead. A year ahead, but wrong nonetheless. DIRECTV still has just nine national HD channels, far fewer than most cable and satellite operators.
Grade: F

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Prediction #4:
Plasma TV 'Enhanced-Definition' Prices Will Hit $1,000 By the 2006 Holidays, With Plasma HDTVs Falling Below $1,500.
I wrote: "In December 2006, I believe you'll see 42-inch Plasma HDTV-ready sets available for $1299, perhaps lower."

Wow. Talk about having a crystal ball. Wal-Mart is now selling a Panasonic 42-inch Plasma HDTV for $1,294.
Grade: A+

Prediction #5:
Rear-Projection TV Sales Will Suffer in 2006
I wrote: "With flat-screen prices falling, there will be less reason to buy a rear-projection set." The industry is filled with reports about the booming sales of LCD and Plasma flat-screen sets in 2006. CRT and DLP rear-projection sets are doing okay, but flat is where it's at.
Grade: B+

Prediction #6:
But Rear-Projection HDTV Prices Will Drop Under $500
I wrote: "For instance, a RCA 52-inch HDTV-ready set is available now in some stores for $899, but next year it will be $499, or lower." Wal-Mart is now offering that set in select stores for less than $500. However, it's still $699 at other retailers.
Grade: B+
 
The only prediction was #3 on which he scored an F.

The others were already know by everyone involved in HD and were not predictions but reporting of facts under his BS Predictions.

He's worse than a bad Vegas lounge act.
 
Hmmmmmmmm. Regarding prediction #3. He made that in December of '05 right? Well, his 'prediction' had absolutely NO merit at the time it was made. Here is the link to DirecTV's Jan 6, 2005 Press Release ( a YEAR before his PREDICTION) - it CLEARLY states that DIRECTV10 and DIRECTV11 would launch in 2007 and that they were the birds that would carry the HD nat'ls. There has NEVER been ANY info that DIRECTV10 and DIRECTV11 would be in service before 2007.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=127160&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=660037&highlight=


His statement:
"I thought DIRECTV would launch their two new HD satellites this year, but they pushed back the launch until 2007."

Is 100% B.S. Where does this guy come out as any kind of expert?
 
I'm not a Swanni basher like many, but this was a little much. As others said, not much in the way of real predictions. I love this one:

"But Rear-Projection HDTV Prices Will Drop Under $500
I wrote: "For instance, a RCA 52-inch HDTV-ready set is available now in some stores for $899, but next year it will be $499, or lower." Wal-Mart is now offering that set in select stores for less than $500. However, it's still $699 at other retailers.
Grade: B+"

One TV at one retailer is selling in SELECT stores for under $500, and the under $500 projection prediction is a B+? The fact is, that they are just going away, but not being sold for under $500. Real grade: D+.
 
He should get a 900 number and sell advice.

Why bother? He already does it on a larger scale.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/hireswanni.html

And you wonder why during his "interviews" he throw out softball questions with no follow up to get the answer the reader really wants to know?

Who says you cannot buy good press?

Of course, no one is lining up to buy his TV Prediction book down to 87 cents now...

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/1575001772/ref=si3_rdr_bb_unew/103-7760927-3247021

All one has to do is read the excerpts of his predictions from the book to learn what an "expert" he really is - especially as a number of the Companies he claimed would be the leaders of his trends are either out of the business completely or Chapter 11......

But my favorite from his 2000 book:" -- Digital Cable set-top boxes, which deliver more than 200 channels, will lead to a decline in sales of satellite TV from companies such as DIRECTV."

Has anyone looked at the boom in subscriber growth to Directv and Dish since 2000? For the uninformed, Directv's subs have gone from well below 10,000,000 to over 15,000,000 - not quite a 100% growth, but close to it. Dish has grown well over 100%. Overall, satellite subs have grown over 100% since his "prediction".

I don't know anyone who would call 100% growth a decline except Phillip.
 
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Not that I'd want to bash another Webmaster....but:

It seems kind of wrong to grade yourself. Either you're right and people know it — without having to pull your skirt over your head — or your not right.

I called the death of CRT in 2000 (by 2007 or 2008), in print. So? I lost a writing gig a few years back because an editor objected when I pointed out that a media server worked less well than an iMac and cost a lot more: he said, "no one cares about iPods." I rather stenuously tried to correct him, and it didn't go well. Two issues ago, that same editor put iPods on his cover for a feature about integrating iPods and iTunes into your home entertainment systems.

Looking at the tech battlefield and figuring out what's going to happen isn't an exact science, granted. But I can think of a dozen writers with a better record of predictions than this guy and they don't feel the need to thump their chests. They're just doing their jobs.
 
Lot's of folks predicted the demise of the CRT. IIRC, one of the originators of the technology said something more or less to the effect that it would work ok until someone came up with a simpler system.

I guess it was in 2004 I drew a line on a graph showing expected decreases in flat screen TVs, against slightly declining CRT TV prices. I figured sometime in 2008 CRTs would either be more expensive than flat screens, or the price premium would be so low to move to flat screen that most folks would gladly pay the difference. Then the loss of economies of scale would drive the price of CRT TVs up significantly. That would mean the 2007 holiday season would be the last one where CRTs would be commonly available at mass merchandisers.

I was wrong. I've read people stating that BB was either dropping all CRTs after the 2006 holidays, or would move to just their house brand. Similar expectations applied to CC. I spoke w/a couple BB employees, around Turkey Day IIRC- and they said CRTs were leaving their store, and not soon enough for them. I saw dozens of flat and microdisplay RPTVs at a local warehouse store at the beginning of December- and 4 CRTs in the back, almost out of sight. Earlier this week I went back and there were NO CRTs. And none expected to come in- ever. So my previous guess that the 2007 holiday season would see the last of the commonly available CRT TV was wrong- it looks like the 2006 holiday season has been it- at least for 19" & up sizes.

I'm sure specialty "boutique" stores will carry CRT TVs for years to come- right next to the vinyl records.

Predicting the end of CRTs is stating the obvious- we just all expected them to hang on longer. Grading yourself- well, can't say I'm surprised he did it. It's entertainment. He still can't get it quite right.

Nice site- first place I saw the bit about another setback to SED.
 
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