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In some other post here there have been statements that Nintendo is the console market leader. I would like to share some things with you.

Nintendo has not been the market leader in consoles for the last three generations. They made all their money on the first two generations of video consoles with the Nintendo and the SuperNintendo and with their very popular hand helds. How do I know this ? I used to be in middle management for EB during the late eighties and early ninties. I know how many consoles EB sold and what everybody else was doing.

Nintendo made 80% of their console sales with those two products. They ruled the world and did so with an iron hand. You had to pay rediculous fees to use their cartridge system and they had to agree to your content and they did so to the extreem. When the Sega Genesis came out Nintendo stuck with the cartridge system in the Nintendo64 and they lost their lead period. The Sega Genesis wiped the market and Nintendo64 was a distant second - the main reason was the cheaper cost of game developement with their cartridge and a loosing of game play restrictions. Nintendo stuck to their guns and was trying to bleed game developers and they went south to Sega. That was three generations ago.

Two generations ago Nintendo and Sony were working on a CD system that everyone said would be too expensive and so Nintendo backed out. The rest is history, the Playstation came out and dominated the landscape outselling its nearest competitor 4 to 1. Games for everybody from the hardcore gamer to the youngest kids - a system for everybody. In this generation Nintendo was a distant second. The Nintendo64 did not do well at all and the GameCube was so late in launching that most consider it a last generation console. The Neo-Geo was out about that time but at $600 was too expensive. That price would be around $1100 for a comparison to the PS3's current asking price.

The last generation brought with it something new, adults by the millions were starting to play video games. The Playstation2 and later the Xbox with their FPS, Role-Playing, Action, Fantasy platformers were entering into a world that only the PC gamers had really been playing in. In the process they left the smaller kids out. Parents who wanted good, clean video gaming fun could only look at the Playstation2 and in the later years there was not much that was available or playable by smaller children. The Playstation 2 built on the success of the Playstation, games for everybody except with the addition of DVD. In later years games for the children became harder to find. With the addition of DVD, once again, this was supposed to be too expensive. Now the release point was $299! Who was going to buy these? The Playstation2 became the best selling platform ever! Xbox came in second and Nintendo's Game Cube? -- a very distant third.

Back to Nintendo, they always had the lead in the handheld market. They own this market and continue to own this market. Only the PSP has put a dent in Nintendo's market share in the handheld arena but this is not the console market and thus, these sales can not be used as a comparison of consoles sold period. Nintendo has this market because kids play these things - Nintendo caters to the kiddies - they are not going to lose this market anytime soon. Although Sony's PSP is very popular I don't see the PSP really hurting Nintendo's marketing muscle in the hand held market. Reason that I do not put the hand-helds in the console sales numbers is that these are really two differant markets. When gamers go home they are not spending time with their hand-helds -- they are spending time with their consoles. Two differant markets -- one for traveling and play outside of the home and one for the home -- the console market.

And now for the next generation console what is Nintendo's answer? Wait for it-- wait -- that's right the Wii!!! Nintendo found its niche market with the Wii and they are going to dominate. Small children are not as interested in graphics and sounds as they are in ease of play and pure fun. In in this arena, Nintendo rules. While the Xbox360 and the PS3 slug it out for young and old adults money (competing with the PC gaming market), Nintendo is going after the kiddies' parents' money. And believe me, they will get it.

Xmas of 2007 will see Nintendo with a very comfortable lead in hand helds and a secure market once again in the consoles (maybe 20% here in the US). Analyst had them out of this generation's console market but as usual Nintendo is not giving up the console market yet. Heading into the 2007 Xmas season I think that we will still see the Xbox360 slightly in the lead with the PS3 coming in a strong and gaining second. They might even be in a neck and neck race if the PS3 can get out MGS4, GT-HD and FF for the PS3. These three titles will drive PS3 sales just like Halo3, Gears of War and Mass Effect will drive Xbox360 sales. I just believe that more people will want to play the PS3 titles -- and I could be wrong about that but we will see. Halo has a hugh following ( I bought a Xbox so that I could play this title alone!)

Where small children are concern, the Wii will dominate. Nintendo's console with their unique titles and controllers will be wonderfull for the kids. But once again, you will not see titles on the Nintendo system with alot of adult content and so this system will be purchased primarily for the kids. Most adults will spend their video dollars on the Xbox360 and PS3. And that 18 to 25 market is what really drives the console gaming market. Nintendo is not shooting for this market, they believe that there is a market just as profitable below the 18 to 25 market. The market they see is the 6 to 14 market and they believe they have the right product for that market. So do I , if my kids were still small (they are both adults now) they would be getting a Wii.

My youngest daughter (28) is a player and she prefers in this order, the PC, the PS2, the GameBoy Advance, the orignal Playstation and then the Game Cube. No Xbox here for her. Too much shooting not enough role playing. I asked her if she was getting a Wii. She said she thought about it but she is a big FF fan and the PS3 will be first. When FF comes out for the PS3 she will buy one. She is not sure of the Wii because as she says, if I want to sweat while playing video games I would just go outside and play tennis or something! These are her words not mine. Also her husband is a big GT fan and with the addition of their first HDTV he would like to play GT-HD so the PS3 is first on his list too. I see them getting a Wii as my daughter also likes to play Mario and Zelda too. It depends if Nintendo's hand held plays the same games too.

Sorry, I digress, back on topic. For the first two console generations Nintendo ruled the roost. They sold millions of consoles and smashed the competition. However, as they moved into the handheld market and dominated there too, they stayed too long with proprietary media and too restrictive game restraints and lost their lead in the console market litterally overnight. The last 3 generations has seen Nintendo slide further and further towards the virtual console great beyond. First Sega, then Sony , then Sony and Microsoft about buried Nintendo's console business. If not for Mario and Zelda I believe they would be out of the console business. Gone the way of Sega--left to making great games for everyone elses consoles. BTW, most marketing analysists have thought this for the last two years too. However, Nintendo still has clout with the kiddies!

Because of dominating the hand-held market and seeing that their original market - young children - were being left out more and more with the passing of each newer generations' consoles - Nintendo has found their way back into the console market with the Wii. Will this be enough to put them on top of the console market -- simply no.

As people get older they want better graphics, better sound, more in depth play mechanics, more adult gaming and Nintendo is only willing to go as far as the Wii with their orginal controller mechanics will carry them. This product is directed towards the kids and I believe that Nintendo is only going after that segment of the market and is not interested in adult gaming. For that reason I see Nintendo being strong but not strong enough to get back to the top. Microsoft and Sony are still going to be fighting for that space -- however, with the Wii on the horizon, the piece of the pie has just grown quite abit smaller.