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Swanni's 10 HDTV Predictions for 2007
Sony and Toshiba will reach an agreement on high-def DVDs; and the quality of your HD picture will emerge as a big issue.
Special to TVPredictions.com

Washington, D.C. (October 3, 2006) -- Editor's Note: Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, was scheduled to reveal his 10 HDTV predictions for 2007 at today's Iowa Digital TV Symposium in Des Moines, Iowa. However, Swann was unable to attend the conference due to the violent storms that hit the Chicago area on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. But here are his 10 predictions for high-def for the coming year -- and excerpts from his prepared remarks.

1. Sony and Toshiba will settle their HDTV DVD format war.
Swann: "The two formats are forcing consumers to the sidelines. People don't want to buy a new high-def DVD player -- whether it's Sony Blu-ray or Toshiba's HD-DVD -- because they are afraid of picking the wrong one. This is Beta vs. VHS all over again. Consequently, I predict that Sony and Toshiba will agree on a single format in 2007, which will spark greater interest in the new high-def players."

2. The XBox 360-Play Station 3 war will generate more interest in high-def DVDs.Swann: "The video game console battle will escalate in November of this year when Sony is scheduled to release its new Play Station 3, which will have a Blu-ray DVD player inside. In addition, Microsoft will then offer a HD-DVD/XBox 360 player attachment for $199. Because the video consoles are enormously popular, they will get more people interested and aware of the new high-def players. However, again, unless Sony and Toshiba reach an agreement on a single format, the interest will not translate into buys."

3. HDTV prices will drop even more dramatically next year.
Swann: "LCD and Plasma TV flat-screen prices will fall another 30 percent in 2007. You can expect to see 42-inch flat-screen HDTVs for under $1,000 by the 2007 holidays."

4. The HDTV picture quality will become a big issue in the battle between cable and satellite TV operators.
Swann: "More high-def owners are becomingly aware that cable and satellite operators sometime squeeze the HD picture quality to make room for more channels and services. And those high-def owners are getting angrier about the practice. In 2007, cable and satellite operators will be less likely to do this because they will have more system and satellite space, respectively, to transmit the high-def signals. However, look for the operators to boast that they offer the best HD picture in their advertising campaigns."

5. The rollout of 1080p TVs will further the battle over which programming format offers the best picture. And it will create more confusion in the marketplace.
Swann: "1080i. 720p. And now 1080p. Networks and TV makers have been saying their particular programming format offers the best picture. (For instance, ABC broadcasts in 720p while NBC uses 1080i.) The tech talk has confused consumers and the introduction of 1080p will just further that confusion."

6. Multicasting will continue to die a slow death.
Swann: "Many local stations are offering additional digital channels with their primary high-def feed. However, Congress (and the FCC) is unlikely to support proposals that would force cable operators to carry the multiple digital feeds, known as multicasting. Consequently, look for fewer stations to offer the multiple digital channels."

7. There will be an explosion of local stations switching to high-def news broadcasts.
Swann: "There are now only about 15 stations that are broadcasting their local news programs in high-def. But that number will rise to several dozen in 2007."

8. New HD-dedicated channels will launch in 2007.
Swann: "Until now, most high-def channels have been simulcasts of the analog network, such as HBO HD and the high-def feeds of the broadcast networks. The exceptions: HDNet and INHD, both of which do not have analog channels. However, with high-def sales rising fast, look for more companies to launch channels that are specifically created for the high-def audience."

9. There will be a boom in commercials produced in HDTV.
Swann: "Advertisers have been reluctant to spend the time and money on producing their commercials in high-def. However, in 2007, the high-def audience will likely grow to well over 20 million. With that number, it will be worth the investment to produce more ads in HD."

10. DIRECTV will become the HDTV leader.Swann: "I predicted this would happen in 2006, but DIRECTV has decided to postpone its national high-def expansion until the second quarter of 2007. So, look for DIRECTV to dramatically increase its national high-def lineup in 2007, offering more channels than any other provider






Only thing I disagree with is #10! Direct might have more locals in HD but not more national networks.. Overall Dish will still be the leader..