Swanni's 10 HDTV Predictions for 2007

Poke

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http://www.tvpredictions.com/hdpredictions100306.htm

Swanni's 10 HDTV Predictions for 2007
Sony and Toshiba will reach an agreement on high-def DVDs; and the quality of your HD picture will emerge as a big issue.
Special to TVPredictions.com

Washington, D.C. (October 3, 2006) -- Editor's Note: Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, was scheduled to reveal his 10 HDTV predictions for 2007 at today's Iowa Digital TV Symposium in Des Moines, Iowa. However, Swann was unable to attend the conference due to the violent storms that hit the Chicago area on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. But here are his 10 predictions for high-def for the coming year -- and excerpts from his prepared remarks.

1. Sony and Toshiba will settle their HDTV DVD format war.
Swann: "The two formats are forcing consumers to the sidelines. People don't want to buy a new high-def DVD player -- whether it's Sony Blu-ray or Toshiba's HD-DVD -- because they are afraid of picking the wrong one. This is Beta vs. VHS all over again. Consequently, I predict that Sony and Toshiba will agree on a single format in 2007, which will spark greater interest in the new high-def players."

2. The XBox 360-Play Station 3 war will generate more interest in high-def DVDs.Swann: "The video game console battle will escalate in November of this year when Sony is scheduled to release its new Play Station 3, which will have a Blu-ray DVD player inside. In addition, Microsoft will then offer a HD-DVD/XBox 360 player attachment for $199. Because the video consoles are enormously popular, they will get more people interested and aware of the new high-def players. However, again, unless Sony and Toshiba reach an agreement on a single format, the interest will not translate into buys."

3. HDTV prices will drop even more dramatically next year.
Swann: "LCD and Plasma TV flat-screen prices will fall another 30 percent in 2007. You can expect to see 42-inch flat-screen HDTVs for under $1,000 by the 2007 holidays."

4. The HDTV picture quality will become a big issue in the battle between cable and satellite TV operators.
Swann: "More high-def owners are becomingly aware that cable and satellite operators sometime squeeze the HD picture quality to make room for more channels and services. And those high-def owners are getting angrier about the practice. In 2007, cable and satellite operators will be less likely to do this because they will have more system and satellite space, respectively, to transmit the high-def signals. However, look for the operators to boast that they offer the best HD picture in their advertising campaigns."

5. The rollout of 1080p TVs will further the battle over which programming format offers the best picture. And it will create more confusion in the marketplace.
Swann: "1080i. 720p. And now 1080p. Networks and TV makers have been saying their particular programming format offers the best picture. (For instance, ABC broadcasts in 720p while NBC uses 1080i.) The tech talk has confused consumers and the introduction of 1080p will just further that confusion."

6. Multicasting will continue to die a slow death.
Swann: "Many local stations are offering additional digital channels with their primary high-def feed. However, Congress (and the FCC) is unlikely to support proposals that would force cable operators to carry the multiple digital feeds, known as multicasting. Consequently, look for fewer stations to offer the multiple digital channels."

7. There will be an explosion of local stations switching to high-def news broadcasts.
Swann: "There are now only about 15 stations that are broadcasting their local news programs in high-def. But that number will rise to several dozen in 2007."

8. New HD-dedicated channels will launch in 2007.
Swann: "Until now, most high-def channels have been simulcasts of the analog network, such as HBO HD and the high-def feeds of the broadcast networks. The exceptions: HDNet and INHD, both of which do not have analog channels. However, with high-def sales rising fast, look for more companies to launch channels that are specifically created for the high-def audience."

9. There will be a boom in commercials produced in HDTV.
Swann: "Advertisers have been reluctant to spend the time and money on producing their commercials in high-def. However, in 2007, the high-def audience will likely grow to well over 20 million. With that number, it will be worth the investment to produce more ads in HD."

10. DIRECTV will become the HDTV leader.Swann: "I predicted this would happen in 2006, but DIRECTV has decided to postpone its national high-def expansion until the second quarter of 2007. So, look for DIRECTV to dramatically increase its national high-def lineup in 2007, offering more channels than any other provider






Only thing I disagree with is #10! Direct might have more locals in HD but not more national networks.. Overall Dish will still be the leader..
 
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1 - NO (It will be another few years before that happens)
2 - Yes
3 - Yes
4 - Yes (Already happening now, cable here is adveritising TRUE HD)
5 - Yes
6 - No - More channels will mud up the picture by adding multicast channels
7 - Yes
8 - Yes
9 - Yes
10 - It's Possible
 
Yeah well there is confusion on the part about Direct adding all these HD Channels! All they are adding is "LOCALS IN HD" not national Dish still has 30 to Direct 9 that will not change next year unless Direct gets Voom and some other channels like Food and HGTV.. But by then Dish will be adding more also so really the Dish is still the leader..

Only way Direct might lead is if you count all the HD Channles togeather that is all the locals plus national channels of HD. But everyone can get all the locals in hd all you will get from direct is their 9 national HD and your 4 locals in hd. Dish you get 30 national and some of you not all get your 4 locals in hd. But if your locals are that important anyone can get them with OTA..
 
Yeah #6 I think more will be doing this since the folks that do OTA love getting a the extra channel. Plus its something that really does not cost the local markets much to broadcast as would when they start updateing hardware to HD..
 
I think no for number 8.

HDnet and INHD are not the only hd only channels. you've got the whole voom fiasco.

TNT, ESPN, & ESPN2 are far more popular and demanded. People want the cable channels they watch now in HD. you'll see more HD simulcast channels being launched. NG-HD, A&E are just some recent ones...
 
Not so sure

Considering how wellhis predictions did last year I'm not so sure this guy knows shat is going on w/ HD.
1 Not so quick unless they completely tank.
2 I'll wait and see so far $ony not doing so well w/ production
3 What a guess this is duh
4 Really really hope so the thread about HD Lite will go away
5 What a surprise, that's how the CE industry manages to continue to make the big $$.
6 Will stay about the same the local NBC carries The Tube on 1 of their subchannels and is now announcing that it will be carried by the cable co's in the area
7 Normal the news is the usual place to push the to get ad $$
8 No doubt but the big push will be in nets converting to HD
9 Ads will have to be as good as the news dept when it switches over
10 I think this guy has D* so he wants this to happen, that's why he keeps predicting it.
 
I don't see the prediction about Directv coming true this year as he already predicted or by next year either unless they are counting all the hd locals that they are adding. With Rupert Murdoch ( 480p wide screen looks fine for Fox ) running things I don't see it happening. OF course if the stock swap takes place and John Malone of Liberty media takes over Directv, all bets are off. My bet is Dish the Underdog will still be top in hd next year.

I think there is a real bias against Dish and for Directv in the media - like A/v magazines etc. They always show the Directv receiver in the rack and they rave about how good the picture is, when everyone knows that Dish has more hd and better pq right now then Directv does. You know Directv has Nfl Sunday ticket and that is sports - football , so we have to push them as number one in the sat business even if they have a sub par picture quality and few hd channels. I call it WISHFUL thinking on the part of Swani and a few other Directv activists , who keep saying that Directv will be number 1.
 
10 minutes on the internet and my mother who can't even spell HDTV could have given 8 of the 10 as they are widely known as facts right now.

The other 2 we will just have to see, but cable will be the HD leader again next year - not D* or E*. As we end this year, 20% of cable subs will be HD subs while DBS will barely touch double digits of their subs. And subs are all that matter - not number of channels. Voom was technically the HDTV leader for 3 years - with all their 35,000 subs. Look where that got them. If he wants to say number of channels - then I suppose then my mother could had predicted 9 of the 10 based on capacity.

Hey, a new job for my mother! Mini-Swanni. She knows nothing about HDTV, but she can add to 29. Could be a close race.
 
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Sorry, I think expecting sub-$1,000 42" flat screen HDTVs by the 2007 holidays is a bit too far on the wishful thinking side of things. Maybe sometime the following year, when CRTs will likely drop to being the minority in unit sales. I hope I'm wrong.

And I for one don't care much about how many subs there are- from my point of view, it's the number of channels that count. And I love some of the Voom channels.
 
Most of these predictions are little more than reading the handwritting on the wall.

There are probably a few hundred people on the big satellite/HD forums that could have made as good or better predictions.
 
What's sad is, many people will believe DirecTV's advertising when they claim "more HD" and list some really high number of HD channels when in fact NO ONE will be capable of receiving all of them. That is, all of their HD locals that they plan to offer. I cannot get Miami's HD locals and Chicago's and Dallas' and Denver and so on.
 
Poke said:
Yeah well there is confusion on the part about Direct adding all these HD Channels! All they are adding is "LOCALS IN HD" not national Dish still has 30 to Direct 9 that will not change next year unless Direct gets Voom and some other channels like Food and HGTV.. But by then Dish will be adding more also so really the Dish is still the leader..

Only way Direct might lead is if you count all the HD Channles togeather that is all the locals plus national channels of HD. But everyone can get all the locals in hd all you will get from direct is their 9 national HD and your 4 locals in hd. Dish you get 30 national and some of you not all get your 4 locals in hd. But if your locals are that important anyone can get them with OTA..

Forget about the Voom channels, I don't think D* will add those. However, think about a suite of Fox HD channels. They already have the Fox Movie Channel, now if they made a suite of movie channels catered to HD, as well as a few other channels full of FOX content, it could be a significant package of channels. Think of all of the 20th Century Fox TV programs that there have been over the year. Not just Fox Network, but all of the other network programming that Fox actually owns and sells to the big 3 for first run. Plus their syndicated programming.

Why do you think we haven't seen the "FX-HD" channel. They are waiting to launch a suite of channels exclusive to D*. Swanni can take that as a prediction if he'd like. :D
 
Jeff_R said:
Why do you think we haven't seen the "FX-HD" channel. They are waiting to launch a suite of channels exclusive to D*. Swanni can take that as a prediction if he'd like. :D


He can't use that one. His "predictions" as he calls them are just facts he found on the internet.

They are as bogus as of a prediction as my prediction "the sun will rise in 2007".

The difference is I don't try and call news items and facts the Industry knows as some type of prediction to impress newbies on the internet - or beg for the Industry to hire me as a speaker or consultant, as he does.
 
HDTVFanAtic said:
He can't use that one. His "predictions" as he calls them are just facts he found on the internet.

They are as bogus as of a prediction as my prediction "the sun will rise in 2007".

The difference is I don't try and call news items and facts the Industry knows as some type of prediction to impress newbies on the internet - or beg for the Industry to hire me as a speaker or consultant, as he does.

I agree. All of these 10 so called "predictions" are not like he is having a great "insight" into the future or getting information from "inside sources" of the industry. He goes around a few internet forums and collect information that is already public and "patent" them as his own by his so called "prediction". Worthless predictions that everyone knows... He has not wow'ed at all.
 
"Swanni" is proof that any smug, self-important bastard can make himself an "internet authority" with the right marketing.

I predict that all predictions regarding HDTV are proposed pending market-driven reality....


...and the FCC's silly rules, of course.
 
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