BluRay has a better chance of survival then HD-DVD

[JoeSp]

The reason is simple, storage space. BD is already showing up in camcorders, PC's is being used in audio mastering and of course is in the PS3. Even if HD-DVD won the HD movie game (which I still do not see -- but then who knows) BD would still survive in other products. There are just too many of them on the market right now.

The PS3 is only behind the XBOX360 in sales here in North America -- elsewhere it is leading the 360 and of course following behind the Wii. I still think the Wii will peter out in 08 -- but who knows. So the PS3 will keep BluRay alive and doing well for the next few years.

But if HD-DVD does not win the movie market what other product besides storage in a PC (and BluRay is going to win that market - it already has basically)?

Everyone is foretelling Doom for BD because Toshiba is sellling their players for peanuts. Well, they are going to sell alot, but I wonder, if BD did the same thing, if they priced the first generation players at $100 how many HD-DVD supporters would buy one?

 

[kb7oeb]

I would buy a BR for $99. At that price there is little risk if the format does fail because its still a good dvd player.

 

[Ilya]

That's what happened to betamax: it lost consumer market, but kept its presence on the pro side.

As for sub-$100 BD-players, I wish they introduced those this season (doubt they can), so we could all get both types and forget about the format war.

 

[meStevo]

The reason is simple, storage space. BD is already showing up in camcorders, PC's is being used in audio mastering and of course is in the PS3. Even if HD-DVD won the HD movie game (which I still do not see -- but then who knows) BD would still survive in other products. There are just too many of them on the market right now.

This post reads like a swan song. You're still outselling for software but it sounds like you're retreating to other uses for the format. Consumer success = wins the war. Niche success = prices stay at a moderate/high level because there isn't a mass production cycle to get them to consumers.

The PS3 is only behind the XBOX360 in sales here in North America -- elsewhere it is leading the 360 and of course following behind the Wii. I still think the Wii will peter out in 08 -- but who knows. So the PS3 will keep BluRay alive and doing well for the next few years.

The PS3's first bounce above the 360 in Europe does not make it a success there. I've covered that in your other doom and gloom thread in the video games forum. The Wii will go strong until people are sick of the motion stuff. WiiFit will be enough to keep it going for 08.

But if HD-DVD does not win the movie market what other product besides storage in a PC (and BluRay is going to win that market - it already has basically)?

HD-DVD is to play movies. Other uses are a bonus for me. You really think if HD-DVD becomes mainstream and accounts for 30%+ of weekly DVD sales that PCs are going to be loaded with BD drives? You're dead wrong. Audio mastering? You mean they use some disc format instead of an array of hard drives with redundancy and backup?

Consumers don't see the value in disc based recording anymore. Everything is becoming SSD, the idea of buying media is going away, and with larger and larger flash media and devices shoving bleeding edge recording technology is just a marketing bullet point.

At a glance, I see some $1300 BD camcorders, and $17 media. That's some attractive product right there. Really not something to boast about. Even DVD-R camcorders are $350+, with media around $14. This is just a quick glance around Google Product searches, so likely some more and less expensive.

Answer me this, why are all the PCs of the future going to have BD in them if HD wins the movie war? Why go through the trouble and expense of buying a dual format player if there are no BD movies for it anymore?

This is not my field, so I won't continue to pick this one apart.

Everyone is foretelling Doom for BD because Toshiba is sellling their players for peanuts. Well, they are going to sell alot, but I wonder, if BD did the same thing, if they priced the first generation players at $100 how many HD-DVD supporters would buy one?

BD can't even compete, they said they won't be going below $399 this year. The number of players is only half the equation, the key is attach rate. You boast about all of these BD devices out there and only muster ratios of 60/40 in software sales... if the attach rate remains constant, and even DECLINES a little, BD will soon be dead in the water both in hardware sales AND software sales in this war.

These threads just amaze me, pure FUD.

 

[JeremyL]

But if HD-DVD does not win the movie market what other product besides storage in a PC (and BluRay is going to win that market - it already has basically)?

With the price of hard drives dropping so low and capacity increasing, it's cheaper and easier to use an external hard drive as portable storage than multiple Blu Ray discs.

 

[diogen]

Geeez, this crap never stops...

The reason is simple, storage space.

There were times when your best buddy Blu Shill Bill was claiming the war to be over when both, Paramount and Warner were HD exclusive!
Now, after having Warner neutral, BD has a better survival chance? What happened to "We won!"

The PS3 is only behind the XBOX360 in sales here in North America -- elsewhere it is leading...

Typical JoeSp argument.
Having run across an article about revival in sales of PS3 due to the price drop - automatic extrapolation to "everywhere"...

(and BluRay is going to win that market - it already has basically)?

Just like PS3 already does profile 1.1 basically...

but I wonder, if BD did the same thing, if they priced the first generation players at $100...

You are destined to wonder about this till the end of times...

And now you can start your "Cry me a River" again about yourself as the only keeper of the blu spirit...

Diogen.

 

[VinceT3]

With the price of hard drives dropping so low and capacity increasing, it's cheaper and easier to use an external hard drive as portable storage than multiple Blu Ray discs.

There's actually a new optical format that will most likely take over for pc's .. the media has been touted to begin support at 300 gb and go upwards of over 1 tb fairly quickly.. and I don't think bluray or hd-dvd will ever hold a candle to that..

 

[vurbano]

Why does Joe bring this tired old arguement up over and over and over again? Funny how this went from "BD has won the war" one day to "BD has the better chance to survive" the next. LOL

 

[akodoreign]

Why does Joe bring this tired old arguement up over and over and over again? Funny how this went from "BD has won the war" one day to "BD has the better chance to survive" the next. LOL

Simple he bet on a horse that looked good at the start of the race.

• BetaMax (1975)
• Mini-Disc (1991)
• Sony Dynamic Digital Sound (1993)
• Multi-Media Compact Disc (1994)
• ATRAC (1999)
• HiFD (1998)
• Super Audio CD (1999)
• Hi-MD (2004)
• Blue Ray (soon)

I would be upset as well if I invested in a 600$ system that Sony micromanaged to death. (as they always do)

 

[akodoreign]

Simple he bet on a horse that looked good at the start of the race.

• BetaMax (1975)
• Mini-Disc (1991)
• Sony Dynamic Digital Sound (1993)
• Multi-Media Compact Disc (1994)
• ATRAC (1999)
• HiFD (1998)
• Super Audio CD (1999)
• Hi-MD (2004)
• Blue Ray (soon)

I would be upset as well if I invested in a 600$ system that Sony micromanaged to death. (as they always do)

Sorry forgot one
Universal Media Disc (2004)

 

[seminole2001]

Funny how UMD discs sell pretty good clip these days. And how SDDS is still used in theater surround sound systems to this day.

 

[meStevo]

Funny how UMD discs sell pretty good clip these days. And how SDDS is still used in theater surround sound systems to this day.

Yes I am sure these both turned out exactly as planned

 

[JoeSp]

Can any of the posters above name me one week in 2007 that HD-DVD won in disc sales? I will be quiet during the rush to post.

 

[meStevo]

Zero? Anymore stupid loaded questions that pretend to win the conversation/war?

Now I have a question for you, oh wise one, a stat that actually matters:

How many BD capable players are out there, and how many discs per player have been purchased.

How many HDDVD capable players are out there, and how many discs per player have been purchased.

Can this even be figured out? This is why Warner is neutral IMO. It is similar to the console wars, the large 360 install base buys 7 games per console currently, the Wii and PS3 both are around 4 per console.

Which company should feel the most comfortable with those numbers, which should be worried the most?

In that analogy, Sony is in the Wii's shoes. So many more BD capable devices, but they can't get them interested enough to demolish the HD-DVD competition.

HDDVD is the Xbox in that scenario, with so many more discs sold per player, since most of their players are made for that purchase, instead of just a forced inclusion in an expensive gaming machine searching for an identity other than 'the expensive 3rd option of the generation'.

 

[bsk116]

Can any of the posters above name me one week in 2007 that HD-DVD won in disc sales? I will be quiet during the rush to post.

ummmm, zero? Sorry, just noticed that elstevo already answered question.

 

[dtanderson]

The PS3 is only behind the XBOX360 in sales here in North America

only behind the Xbox360 ??? but the Wii is in the number one slot with the 360 behind it and PS3 third and last place

 

[JonUrban]

I thought the war would be over (and won) by BluRay once the "Pirates" movies came out................

Oooops!

 

[riffjim4069]

I'm sorry to digress, but I now think both formats are doomed to fail as the adoption rate for these new formats are dismal at this stage - most people just don't care nor have then been swayed away from DVD. There is no room for a 10,000 day format war in the electronics age. Hence, I believe both formats will fall-by-the-wayside and replaced with something bigger, better, and less confusing to the general consumer.

Until that time...enjoy 'em while you can. Gimme more cheap players and free HD movies...we win! :

 

[GaryPen]

Simple he bet on a horse that looked good at the start of the race.

• BetaMax (1975)
• Mini-Disc (1991)
• Sony Dynamic Digital Sound (1993)
• Multi-Media Compact Disc (1994)
• ATRAC (1999)
• HiFD (1998)
• Super Audio CD (1999)
• Hi-MD (2004)
• Blue Ray (soon)

I would be upset as well if I invested in a 600$ system that Sony micromanaged to death. (as they always do)

Don't forget Digital8

 

[GaryPen]

....Hence, I believe both formats will fall-by-the-wayside and replaced with something bigger, better, and less confusing to the general consumer.

Until that time...enjoy 'em while you can. Gimme more cheap players and free HD movies...we win! :

Yeah. That's right. Whichever format wins will probably only last as long as the short-lived DVD format.