DIRECTV unlikely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket

[cosmo_kramer]

Of course Apple would lose money on ST. It is mathematically impossible not to lose money on ST.

Purchase of it will be predicated upon first buying something else. In Apple’s case, either Apple TV+ or Apple products.

The only thing about this topic that’s mathematically impossible is to count how many times these issues will be rehashed. Logic and facts be damned!!!

 

[Juan]

And yet in their negotiations with the NFL, Apple is pointing to their deal with the MLS and talking about how they want something more like that. I don't think Apple is as impressed with the NFL as you are.

I don't think the other rights owners will allow that

 

[Bilbo1]

I don't think the other rights owners will allow that

That’s why no one wants Sunday Ticket. There is no way to add value.

 

[Juan]

That’s why no one wants Sunday Ticket. There is no way to add value.

Disney will take it at the right price

 

[Bruce]

Disney will take it at the right price

The rumors are Disney offered a Billion, Amazon 1.5 Billion and Apple at $2 Billion with certain conditions, so if Apple does not work out, Amazon would get it based on money offered.

The plus about Amazon getting it is they would be ready on Day one thanks to their AWS Business, with this short of a timeframe until next season, Disney would really have to speed it up to be ready.

 

[cosmo_kramer]

That’s why no one wants Sunday Ticket. There is no way to add value.

Of course there is.

 

[SamCdbs]

No it isn't. It isn't remotely mathematically impossible not to lose money on ST. Charge $333 per sub, get 12,000,000 million subs. Bam! Mathematically possible.

Except, of course, there are not 12M subscribers out there. That is a buy rate of 50% of those watching the “free” game.

There are 2M potential subscribers.

 

[Juan]

The rumors are Disney offered a Billion, Amazon 1.5 Billion and Apple at $2 Billion with certain conditions, so if Apple does not work out, Amazon would get it based on money offered.

The plus about Amazon getting it is they would be ready on Day one thanks to their AWS Business, with this short of a timeframe until next season, Disney would really have to speed it up to be ready.

We shall see..Amazon needs a reason to take it..losing money won't cut it when you are closing warehouses

 

[Bruce]

We shall see..Amazon needs a reason to take it..losing money won't cut it when you are closing warehouses

They only closed one Fullfillment Center, the rest were Delivery Stations.

They did cancel a few, but most were never built and still in the planning stage.

They still have over $100 billion in cash.

If they get it at $1.5 billion, they would need only 5 million subscribers at $300 to break even, that is only 3 million more then DirecTV, since Amazon Prime is in over 76 Million Households and growing, while DirecTV is in 10 Million and shrinking, I believe easily done.

This map shows where Amazon is closing warehouses across the country

Amazon went on a building binge between 2020 and 2022 that left it with too much space, causing the company to scale back its warehouse network.

www.cnbc.com

U.S. HHs with an Amazon Prime subscription 2022 | Statista

This statistic presents the total number of households in the United States with an Amazon Prime subscription from 2018 to 2022.

www.statista.com

 

[Juan]

They only closed one Fullfillment Center, the rest were Delivery Stations.

They did cancel a few, but most were never built and still in the planning stage.

They still have over $100 billion in cash.

If they get it at $1.5 billion, they would need only 5 million subscribers at $300 to break even, that is only 3 million more then DirecTV, since Amazon Prime is in over 76 Million Households and growing, while DirecTV is in 10 Million and shrinking, I believe easily done.

This map shows where Amazon is closing warehouses across the country

Amazon went on a building binge between 2020 and 2022 that left it with too much space, causing the company to scale back its warehouse network.

www.cnbc.com

U.S. HHs with an Amazon Prime subscription 2022 | Statista

This statistic presents the total number of households in the United States with an Amazon Prime subscription from 2018 to 2022.

www.statista.com

There are only 2 million currently..including freebees

 

[Bruce]

There are only 2 million currently..including freebees

And I wrote that they only need 3 million more to make 5 million, when are the fanboys going to understand that it is DirecTV most do not want to get NFLST, mostly because of the high price, old equipment and etc.

I rather pay for Prime and get ST, a total yearly cost of $439 vs $1440 ( $120 a month) plus $300.

Live TV is slowly dying at a current rate of 7-8 million lost a year( 4 million gone in the first two quarters this year).

Older customers are dying off and the majority of the under 40 age range care nothing about a Live TV subscription.

 

[Yespage]

Except, of course, there are not 12M subscribers out there. That is a buy rate of 50% of those watching the “free” game.

There are 2M potential subscribers.

If it is 50%, that means it is less than the total number watching, which still means it is mathematically possible. It might not be reasonable, likely... but the laws of mathematics does not say it isn't possible.

 

[SamCdbs]

Umm, ST is “live TV”.

Arguing that ST can be profitable is just a fundamental lack of understanding of how TV works.

 

[Juan]

If it is 50%, that means it is less than the total number watching, which still means it is mathematically possible. It might not be reasonable, likely... but the laws of mathematics does not say it isn't possible.

The law of imaginary numbers?


Imaginary numbers are the numbers when squared it gives the negative result. In other words, imaginary numbers are defined as the square root of the negative numbers where it does not have a definite value. It is mostly written in the form of real numbers multiplied by the imaginary unit called “i”.

 

[Yespage]

The law of imaginary numbers?


Imaginary numbers are the numbers when squared it gives the negative result. In other words, imaginary numbers are defined as the square root of the negative numbers where it does not have a definite value. It is mostly written in the form of real numbers multiplied by the imaginary unit called “i”.

Except in electrical engineering where it is a bit more common for use... because electrons are nothing but a bunch nonconformist hippies... it is "j", because "i" is for current. Why electrical engineers and mathematicians couldn't come up with a compromise is beyond me.

Also, I'd question the statement "imaginary numbers are defined as the square root of the negative numbers where it does not have a definite value"... that isn't accurate. It doesn't have a "real number" value, but it has a "complex number" value which is quite definite. Also, there is no "law of imaginary numbers".

Regardless, complex or real number wise, still within the realm of mathematically possible. What isn't mathematically possible? Getting a pack of hot dogs and buns in equivalent quantities. I think that is Meyer's Theorem. Or was it Oscar's?

 

[SamCdbs]

And another ratings disaster for Amazon TNF. Another game that was decided on the final play, this time involving two of the largest markets (Washington and Chicago) and it gets a 4.33. Or about half of what Fox was getting last year at this time, 8.04.

But somehow a medium that cannot get half of traditional providers ratings is going to get three or four times the current customers for ST.

Right.

 

[Yespage]

Yes, let's compare ratings for the Commanders v Bears with generalized football demand. Such as displaced football fans. Personally, 4.33 seems pretty high for a Washington football game. It obliterated the ratings for Game 5 of the ALDS between the Guardians and Yankees last night.

 

[Bruce]

And another ratings disaster for Amazon TNF. Another game that was decided on the final play, this time involving two of the largest markets (Washington and Chicago) and it gets a 4.33. Or about half of what Fox was getting last year at this time, 8.04.

Who cares, no matter what you post about Amazon does not matter, NFLST is leaving DirecTV, they choose not to bid on it as they slowly wind down their business.

But somehow a medium that cannot get half of traditional providers ratings is going to get three or four times the current customers for ST.

Right now, ST is available to only 9% of the United States Households, soon it will be available to 85% of Households, it is mathematical impossible that it will get the same or less subscribers then DirecTV, how many more we will soon find out.

 

[NashGuy]

Of course Apple would lose money on ST. It is mathematically impossible not to lose money on ST.

Purchase of it will be predicated upon first buying something else. In Apple’s case, either Apple TV+ or Apple products.

As I said, there's virtually zero chance that Apple will restrict NFLST to Apple hardware. They've not done that with either Apple TV+ or Apple Music, and they're not doing with Apple MLS. If they land NFLST, it will be delivered via the Apple TV app/website, which is available for a broad array of non-Apple hardware.

And while it's possible they could force purchase of Apple TV+ in order to get NFLST (even though they're not doing that with Apple MLS), I still think the NFLST contract would be a money-loser for them. As I've said over and over, Apple TV+ costs $5/mo or $50/yr. and is contract-free. This is NOT a product in the same category as DirecTV Satellite, which currently starts with a 2-year contract and a minimum price tag of $1,964 for those 24 months (or around $2,500 if you want a package that comes with one year of free NFLST Max, normally priced at $396 per season).

So, as I say, I don't see any way that Apple could make enough via increased Apple TV+ subscriptions to offset the losses they'd take on NFLST itself.

 

[cosmo_kramer]

View: https://twitter.com/AndrewMarchand/status/1582436509000814592?s=20&t=bZWUhWl--TZJiKTQzaXheg