DIRECTV unlikely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket

[Bruce]

This does

So far, Amazon has not done any kind of interactive in-game features to pull Prime Video viewers of “Thursday Night Football” into the retail site.

Marie Donoghue, vice president of global sports for Prime Video, said at a news conference there are no plans to alter that approach when the Black Friday game airs next year

Amazon's Prime Video gets exclusive rights to NFL 'Black Friday' game in 2023

The afternoon game will stream on one of the biggest shopping days of the year for the online retailer.

www.latimes.com

First, plans can change.

Second, they must be making plenty from Ad Sales then.

 

[Juan]

First, plans can change.

Second, they must be making plenty from Ad Sales then.

No link to back that statement up anywhere

 

[Bruce]

No link to back that statement up anywhere

That is obviously a opinion, hence why I wrote they must be.

 

[Juan]

That is obviously a opinion, hence why I wrote they must be.

Based on what?.. how fast they snapped up sunday ticket?

 

[SamCdbs]

Facts:

- TNF ratings are very bad.
- The point of TNF, and of ST, is to either get more subscribers to the predicated streaming service (not happening vis TNF), sell ads at a profit (profit here being take in more $$ than the rights and production costs) or forgo that and “sell” ads to yourself on the idea that it can sell more products than before (this, of course, forgets that Amazon could just buy ads on other networks’ shows for a lot less than it is paying for TNF and this “Black Friday” deal.). None are happening.

This is again, voodoo economics. TNF is a money loser, and ST is and always will be a money loser, anyway you want to figure it. Which is why the two bidders are being cautious.

More broadly, as Disney showed last week, subscriber growth in streaming is a Pyrrhic victory. They more subscribers you have, the more money you bleed.

Until the bubble pops.

 

[Bruce]

Facts:

- TNF ratings are very bad.
- The point of TNF, and of ST, is to either get more subscribers to the predicated streaming service (not happening vis TNF), sell ads at a profit (profit here being take in more $$ than the rights and production costs) or forgo that and “sell” ads to yourself on the idea that it can sell more products than before (this, of course, forgets that Amazon could just buy ads on other networks’ shows for a lot less than it is paying for TNF and this “Black Friday” deal.). None are happening.

This is again, voodoo economics. TNF is a money loser, and ST is and always will be a money loser, anyway you want to figure it. Which is why the two bidders are being cautious.

More broadly, as Disney showed last week, subscriber growth in streaming is a Pyrrhic victory. They more subscribers you have, the more money you bleed.

Until the bubble pops.

Fact- DirecTV has lost at least 10-11 Million Subscribers and the losses continue.

Fact-DirecTV made the decision not to bid on NFLST, streaming did not take it away from them.

Fact-You have no idea what Amazon gets for Ad rates or how many more Prime members they pick up.

 

[SamCdbs]

Fact- DirecTV has lost at least 10-11 Million Subscribers and the losses continue.

And it is still profitable, unlike streaming. The bubble is popping soon.

Fact-DirecTV made the decision not to bid on NFLST, streaming did not take it away from them.

No one said otherwise. DirecTV’s master stroke will leave it with the commercial rights to this money losing project, almost certainly.

Fact-You have no idea what Amazon gets for Ad rates or how many more Prime members they pick up.

Ad rates are published. I covered the math many pages ago, won’t repeat it. Amazon subscriber numbers are published. While it is just as true that no one can really say that X new people got Amazon (which you previously said “everybody” had anyway) due to TNF, as it is to see how many subscriber to DTV were duet to ST access, we can look a the small ratings for TNF.

So they are getting about a 4 rating, to be generous. Heck, let’s go with a 6. Amazon ALREADY had 118M subscribers. So if EVERY ONE of the tiny number of people watching TNF are new Prime subscribers (they aren’t, its probably something like 1%, but I don’t need to argue to win) you do the math vis how much Prime costs vis how much they paid the NFL, Al and the gang, and all the production people.

They lose money.

Big money.

Because that is what streamers do. They lose money.

 

[televisionarchivesorlando]

About Thursday Night Football. Did this happen when it wasn't on Amazon? A slow decline in ratings?

 

[Juan]

About Thursday Night Football. Did this happen when it wasn't on Amazon? A slow decline in ratings?

People actually tuned into fox

 

[SamCdbs]

People actually tuned into fox

Correct. While no one thought the ratings would equal Fox, an OTA network, the %age that would tune in on what was claimed to be the “near universal” Prime was supposed to be much higher.

The low ratings, combined with the 11th hour deal with DirecTV to serve the commercial market (which, according to Amazon’s own figures is 12% of the viewership of TNF (I think it is far higher) ) show just what a boondoggle Amazon has gotten itself into.

And, yes Amazon, and Apple, and Disney et al all make plenty of money to cover their huge streaming losses. But at some point they are going to move out of this phase and actually try to make money. This means the “but look at how much money I save” crew will be back to square one.

 

[meStevo]

This means the “but look at how much money I save” crew will be back to square one.

I've saved roughly $14,000 in 6 years - and that's probably a lowball estimate, it's probably closer to $20k. When you figure I'll be back to square one?

Streaming will rarely, if ever be as expensive as the traditional providers, it's almost apples and oranges when it comes to content distribution and customer acquisition and retention.

You'd have to stack other things up that don't matter for most (services they'd subscribe to either way, internet costs) to invent a customer that approaches the cost of a traditional service.

 

[meStevo]

About Thursday Night Football. Did this happen when it wasn't on Amazon? A slow decline in ratings?

Ebbs and flows based on matchup and time of year/season iirc. We're a few weeks from counting down the games to make or break playoff chances, and with 1 exception (Raiders v Rams) every game for the balance of the season has at least 1 potential playoff team in it. Biggest probably Week 15, 49ers at Seahawks will be the biggest game remaining on the schedule, and then Cowboys at the Titans in week 17. The rest are probably pretty middling to above-average I'd expect. Thing about the NFL though is you can have Ravens v Bucs be an underwhelming matchup and then Jags vs Jets come out of nowhere and is a game of the season.

Data shows it's typically as good as any other game that week, despite protestations to the contrary - Thursday Night Football: Better Than You Think | The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective

 

[Ronnie-]

. This means the “but look at how much money I save” crew will be back to square one.

Well, they, I, will still have saved that money.


When it gets to that point, personally, I’ll consider what I’ll do then. When it gets to the point that I don’t feel like I getting enough for what I’m paying, I’ll go in a different direction. Again.


Life is too short to waste money on things that don’t bring a good return. Of course my point of reconsidering may not be others.


I’m just glad we all have options.

 

[Jimbo]

Heres a question :
Amazon has 118 Million subs (that from earlier post), whos to say that MOST of them, if they wanted ST, didn't already have it ... the up tick for ST people going to Amazon for it is gonna be UNDER 10% ... probably under 5% ... imo.

 

[meStevo]

Heres a question :
Amazon has 118 Million subs (that from earlier post), whos to say that MOST of them, if they wanted ST, didn't already have it ... the up tick for ST people going to Amazon for it is gonna be UNDER 10% ... probably under 5% ... imo.

Doesn't seem likely, unless you also think that everyone who has Sunday Ticket now is the maximum possible audience for the package - which is provably false since there are people in this thread are not part of that group and there's no reason to think we're a small amount of people.

It's not always about new subs, it's all the value added stuff that goes with it and the use of the platform.

If Amazon 'only' got a million ore two more $300 subs than DirecTV did at whatever it's number was at it's peak, it'd probably also largely be a success year 1 and a solid base to build from.

 

[Jimbo]

Doesn't seem likely, unless you also think that everyone who has Sunday Ticket now is the maximum possible audience for the package - which is provably false since there are people in this thread are not part of that group and there's no reason to think we're a small amount of people.

It's not always about new subs, it's all the value added stuff that goes with it and the use of the platform.

If Amazon 'only' got a million ore two more $300 subs than DirecTV did at whatever it's number was at it's peak, it'd probably also largely be a success year 1 and a solid base to build from.

You really think there are 2 MILLION people that want ST that couldn't get it before that will now pay for it ?????
At $300 plus at that ???
I don't.

I guess well see in a few years.

 

[meStevo]

Yu really think there are 2 MILLION people that want ST that couldn't get it before that will now pay for it ?????
At $300 plus at that ???
I don't.

I guess well see in a few years.

Given the popularity of the NFL, absolutely. Especially over whatever the current sub numbers are on a far more expensive service with a massively smaller reach than any of the potential streaming providers.

 

[John2021]

My Fiber is $80 for the first year, afterwards that same speed is $120 for the cheapest available.

we just got fiber it's 74.99 for gig service. and it comes with a 3 year price lock also!!!! unlike spectrum who likes to nickel and dime customers to death

 

[Bruce]

Heres a question :
Amazon has 118 Million subs (that from earlier post), whos to say that MOST of them, if they wanted ST, didn't already have it ... the up tick for ST people going to Amazon for it is gonna be UNDER 10% ... probably under 5% ... imo.

Yu really think there are 2 MILLION people that want ST that couldn't get it before that will now pay for it ?????
At $300 plus at that ???
I don't.

I guess well see in a few years.

Amazon has 76 Million Households in the United States that sub to Prime, the average size of a household is 2.51, so 76 million times 2.51 = over 190 Million Prime Members, then subtract some kids, so 118 million sounds about right.

So, at a minimum, Amazon has a potential 76 million possible subscribers vs DirecTV at 10 Million, it costs over $1200 a year to DirecTV just so you have the ability to sub to ST.

With Prime, it only costs $139 a year to have that same ability.

So of course, if Prime received the contract, of course they will sell more subs to it because they have so many more.

How many, who knows, but they would only need 5 million at $300 to break even if at $1.5 Billion.

Now what is easier, trying to get 5 million with 76 million subscribers or with a service with only 10 million and shrinking.

U.S. HHs with an Amazon Prime subscription 2022 | Statista

This statistic presents the total number of households in the United States with an Amazon Prime subscription from 2018 to 2022.

www.statista.com

 

[Jimbo]

Amazon has 76 Million Households in the United States that sub to Prime, the average size of a household is 2.51, so 76 million times 2.51 = over 190 Million Prime Members, then subtract some kids, so 118 million sounds about right.

So, at a minimum, Amazon has a potential 76 million possible subscribers vs DirecTV at 10 Million, it costs over $1200 a year to DirecTV just so you have the ability to sub to ST.

With Prime, it only costs $139 a year to have that same ability.

So of course, if Prime received the contract, of course they will sell more subs to it because they have so many more.

How many, who knows, but they would only need 5 million at $300 to break even if at $1.5 Billion.

Now what is easier, trying to get 5 million with 76 million subscribers or with a service with only 10 million and shrinking.

U.S. HHs with an Amazon Prime subscription 2022 | Statista

This statistic presents the total number of households in the United States with an Amazon Prime subscription from 2018 to 2022.

www.statista.com

So your thinking almost 20% of Amazon subs will buy the ST at $300 plus.
Now subtract how many are already Amazon subs and have ST and you'll probably be closer to 5% (that would be New Subs to ST)