Dish's Window to Sell Spectrum Has Closed, Analyst Says

bluegras

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A top industry analyst has slapped a "sell" rating on Dish Network as it's becoming increasingly clear that the possibility of a spectrum sale is fleeting, as the company instead moves ahead with an expensive network build-out plan.

Craig Moffett, analyst with MoffettNathanson, downgraded Dish Network LLC(Nasdaq: DISH) shares from "neutral" to sell and cut its target price on the stock to $29 (from $37) on the notion that a spectrum sale for Dish is the only good outcome on the company's "bewilderingly complex" decision tree, which also includes a range of network buildout scenarios.

"A spectrum sale (and at a price above that which is already implied in Dish's stock price) is the ONLY positive scenario for the stock," Moffett wrote in a research note issued Monday. "Whether by choice or by necessity, it now appears Dish has no alternative but to build a network."

Dish's Window to Sell Spectrum Has Closed, Analyst Says | Light Reading
 
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Tampa8

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Why does anyone listen to Craig Moffett any more (or ever for that matter)? He predicted cord cutting would be a short-lived phenomenon, amongst other idiotic things.

Not that selling was ever off the table, but who says DISH didn't intend to build something anyway? In fact how many professionals and others (like us) have said they probably need a wireless business. He makes it sound like this is bad.
I don't even trust he's right it's too late to sell.
 
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comfortably_numb

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Not that selling was ever off the table, but who says DISH didn't intend to build something anyway? In fact how many professionals and others (like us) have said they probably need a wireless business. He makes it sound like this is bad.
I don't even trust he's right it's too late to sell.

Yeah, that guy has cried wolf far too many times. I don’t trust his analyses.
 
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ChadT41

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Moffett is a moron. Cannot trust his decisions. Honestly, let Dish stock drop, let someone pick it up, and ride Charlie’s wireless buildout.
 
Claude Greiner

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I do paid consultations about the satellite and cable industry for $250/hr.

I talk to many investors looking into buying stock in Dish due to their wireless spectrum holdings.

I’m very careful in what I tell these people, but this whole charade is going to come to an end soon.

Either Charlie has a secret plan that nobody knows about and he is going to blow everyone away, or he has got nothing.

I wouldn’t put anything past Charlie, but the man is an expert at playing poker.

This is something they should have rolled out 6 years ago.

When AT&T finalized their deal with Directv, Charlie should have started building his network then.

The ship has sailed. At what point is the point of no return?

You know the FCC Ain’t extending him anything.
 
rvvaquero

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I do paid consultations about the satellite and cable industry for $250/hr.

I talk to many investors looking into buying stock in Dish due to their wireless spectrum holdings.

I’m very careful in what I tell these people, but this whole charade is going to come to an end soon.

Either Charlie has a secret plan that nobody knows about and he is going to blow everyone away, or he has got nothing.

I wouldn’t put anything past Charlie, but the man is an expert at playing poker.

This is something they should have rolled out 6 years ago.

When AT&T finalized their deal with Directv, Charlie should have started building his network then.

The ship has sailed. At what point is the point of no return?

You know the FCC Ain’t extending him anything.

People pay you $250/hr for this? They should just come to SatGuys.
 
Claude Greiner

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Just got this this morning

Dear Claude,

Thank you again for being part of the xxx network. We have identified you as a potential match for a new research project. One of our clients, an Analyst at an Investment Management Firm, is interested in learning more about DISH and Univision.

Please let us know if this is a topic you can discuss by using the following link. We use this information provided to more accurately capture your relevant experience for this request as well as additional expertise for us to use for future interactions. We appreciate your time and consideration.
Alternatively, if this project is not a fit please decline and we will adjust our efforts.
[\quote]
 
D

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And Ergen and Dish were supposed to be out of business less than a year after launch of the DBS service because every other competitor to DirecTV SOLD their Sat biz assets and left the industry even before starting their planned DBS services. Ergen was CRAZY, by their estimation, to continue and launch his Dish DBS. I'm certain DirecTV of the period just ignored Dish. DirecTV did NOTHING to counter Dish's continued growth and innovation until Rupert Murdoch purchased DTV and put Chase Carey as CEO and take some of the wind from Dish's sails and made DirecTV a more aggressive competitor and even a better run company than it had ever been.

The problem for Wall Street--and Charlie--is that Dish has always been secretive and never revealed their full hand until virtually the last moment, and that makes investors nervous when a company is a new entrant to a competitive industry. Considering Ergen's history, I expect there are other players working with Dish, some large, obvious companies (with famous CEO's) who may find this they only way the can get in with regards to wireless spectrum--without footing the entire bill and risk--for their products and services, while others not so obvious who all want secrecy, as well, but if it is one thing Ergen has demonstrated, it is that he and his companies can be quite secretive, and they have to be be because they are a smaller company than their competitors. It has only been the last few months--if not weeks--that Ergen has laid out his plan, but if there was no good plan, he would have sold his spectrum long ago, but I think he already had a vision of what he wanted to do with it. Considering he was clearly the first with Virtual MVPD (SlingTV), he was easily the ONLY one who was harping for years to all the content owners/channels about such as service and successfully persuaded them that it was good business move for them, as well. Now, every other virtual MVPD is playing catch-up, but even if the others surpass SlingTV as having more subscribers, Ergen and Dish are doing well enough because he was tight-lipped about SlingTV for a very long time and was, again, ahead and placing the right bets.

One thing is that, with all his human flaws, he is a smart enough business man to have gotten admiration from titans of business from Rupert Murdoch to Bob Iger to name a few, and Charlie would have sold the entire Dish side of the business yesterday, for even a fire sale, if he didn't believe he had a real chance at entering wireless or felt Dish was in a non-recoverable nose dive. This move into wireless is NOT necessarily providing smart phone as some secret partners might want to use Dish's spectrum, but really for the 5G tech and the Internet of Things real money making future and NEW services (broadband ISP, driver-less vehicles of all types including ride share services, medical, industrial, etc.) of what we know today as "wireless."

I've also found Moffett to be a strange bird of analysts who has not impressed me with his tea leaves not being so accurate. Also, those publicity dog "analysts" and companies for whom they work are often, in my estimation, paid mouth pieces for the companies who want to create bad Market news for their competitors. These "analysts" can say things that have some impact positive or negative, and right now the big wireless companies don't want any new entrants and, in fact, are trying to merge to further decrease the competition. Anytime any of these far too often quoted "analysts" speak, you often have to wonder whose payroll they are on to say what is in the interest of their real masters, and why is the press so often directed to or, to some extent by their parent companies, always make way toward those particular "analysts" for quotes. There is a cadre of such analysts from different firms who are likely being told what to say to the press, and even make ratings based on firms and analysts at those firms being hired mouth pieces.
 
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