It's funny to me that people wanted companies like Hbo to be out there ala carte for like Cord cutters. Now they are continuing to combine with other services that will pump up the price you pay. The more you split them apart the more they merge and combine back. Sooner than later we will have like 4 services that combine everything into those 4 services and you will pay again what you did when there was just cable and satellite.
So far, at least in the case of HBO, the consolidation has been very positive for consumers. Consider that we originally had HBO Now as the standalone streaming product. Cost was $15/mo and it included all of HBO's library available on-demand. Basically, same price as you paid to get HBO via cable except in the app there were no live linear channels.
Then they replaced that product with HBO Max. Still had the entire HBO library on-demand but added a lot of additional content -- new Max Originals, a ton of recent and classic TV shows from other outlets (e.g. Friends, The West Wing, Top Gear, etc.), plus lots more movies (some of which had previously been in their separate FilmStruck service, which they shut down). Then they folded into HBO Max the original and past content from their separate DC Universe service (stuff based on DC superheroes), including new originals like Titans and Doom Patrol. Then they added in most of the Cinemax Originals that had previously been exclusive to HBO's traditional premium sibling (e.g. The Knick, Banshee, Warrior, etc.). Oh, and let's not forget that all the WB movies in 2021 premiered on HBO Max (in 4K Dolby Vision and Atmos) on the same day as in theaters (with movies in 2022 and after coming to the service 45 days after premiering in theaters)!
At this point, the HBO content constitutes only maybe 25% of the overall HBO Max library. If two years ago I had told you that was what would happen with the jump from HBO Now to HBO Max (which happened in May 2020), what would you have expected the price of HBO Max to be? $20? $25? Nope. It stayed the same as HBO Now had been, just $15.
Then they introduced a cheaper ad-supporter tier of HBO Max with a small amount of ads in all the non-HBO content while the HBO stuff -- in other words, everything that had originally constituted the entirety of HBO Now -- remained ad-free, as always. The cost for that plan is only $10/mo. So in effect, they took all of HBO Now, kept it ad-free, and added a ton of additional content with a small amount of ads, and cut the price by one-third.
They understood that they really had to increase their value proposition -- the amount and variety of content offered for the money -- to make serious inroads against Netflix and Disney to secure their place as one of the few "must-have" global streamers that will survive the current streaming wars.
What's the best predictor of future behavior? Past behavior. So I expect we'll see them once again add a bunch of complementary content to HBO Max in the form of all that Discovery stuff, yet keep prices the same, thereby sweetening the deal for consumers.
All that said, I don't disagree with your ultimate prediction for the industry. Yes, there will be yet more consolidation of streaming services and once we get down to the few remaining winners/survivors, we'll see substantial price hikes from all of them (as we've already begun to see from Netflix, which has already secured its place in the global streaming wars).
The next big merger to look for is one that will involve Paramount, which is too small to go it alone. It will end up, in whole or part, married to Universal or Warner. The deal I keep envisioning is Comcast spinning off Universal in order for it to merge with Paramount, which would in turn force that combined company to spin off either NBC or CBS (since the government won't allow ownership of two major broadcast nets). I could see them selling CBS to Warner, the only major traditional US media giant without a broadcast net. Imagine a new super-streamer that combines Peacock, Paramount+ and Showtime. (Actually, the two companies have already formed a joint-venture service in certain European markets that does just this. It's called SkyShowtime.) Meanwhile, imagine live Sunday NFL and next-day CBS shows streaming in The Max.
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