High Def Disc unit sales - The Digital Bits

[BobMurdoch]

No mention of the 5-10 fold increase in HD DVD player sales over the Memorial Day weekend? The one that forced the BluRay manufacturers to cut the price another unexpected $100 to $499? Sounds like BluRay is shaking in their boots if they dropped the price before the new one had even taken effect....

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6447181.html

 

[JoeSp]

That is indeed a great price Bob. But if all those hardware sales don't affect disc sales then where is the good news for HD-DVD? You had better hope that the BD camp does not decide to put out an inexpensive BD player priced at $300 because if they do it will not be the BD camp doing the shaking!

 

[navychop]

From Home Media Magazine:

Software units sales ratios as of 6/3/07:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 61.......HD-DVD 39
YTD:....................Blu-ray 67.......HD-DVD 33
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 59.......HD-DVD 41

Normalized to make comparison with previous postings easier:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 63.9
YTD:....................Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 49.3
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 69.5

Could someone please explain to me how the weekly figures can show a boost for HD DVD yet the figures for the same time for "since inception" show a decrease for HD DVD? Must be some horrendous corrections going on.

 

[JoeSp]

Navychop, There has to be some boost to HD-DVD sales with the firesale of the lower priced Toshiba HD-DVD player. You are comparing Week to Year To inception sales. Weekly sales should fluctuate with strong HD-DVD release weeks leading and strong BD weeks leading.

Since inception and especially with the awful start of BD in August with a defective Samsung player and some horrible HD conversions it is amazing that BD is so far ahead of HD-DVD. There are some weeks that the HD-DVD camp brings out some great titles and in those weeks they should lead in sales -- but since XMAS 06 they have not lead one week. In fact the sales ratio has been anywhere from 2-1 to 3-1 in weekly sales.

With all the low cost HD-DVD players and the nice 5 free movies and $100 off firesale I suspect that Toshiba is trying to submarine the newer lower cost players coming from the BD camp. The sale of all those players are what should spike HD-DVD sales. If the HD-DVD camp can regain the lead at least in some weekly sales comparisons then they can say that they have turned the corner.

However, I believe that the BD camp will match them in the standalone low cost arena by XMAS and that with considerably more BD content hitting the shelves during the XMAS season we might see BD take a hugh leap in the weekly sales ratio. I believe that this is the main reason that Toshiba is pushing the older player down in price. This just might work -- I doubt it -- but there is always that chance.

And for those HD doubters out there -- the movie studios could care less about how many standalone players you have on the market if your users are not buying the HD discs. The movie studios are interested in discs sales and discs sales only. That is how they make their money and if the sales are not there then they will not be bringing out their product on the disc. If you really want to see your format win then start buying discs in the format of your choice. 37 BD movies and counting.

 

[CochiseGuy]

Navychop, There has to be some boost to HD-DVD sales with the firesale of the lower priced Toshiba HD-DVD player. You are comparing Week to Year To inception sales. Weekly sales should fluctuate with strong HD-DVD release weeks leading and strong BD weeks leading.

Since inception and especially with the awful start of BD in August with a defective Samsung player and some horrible HD conversions it is amazing that BD is so far ahead of HD-DVD. There are some weeks that the HD-DVD camp brings out some great titles and in those weeks they should lead in sales -- but since XMAS 06 they have not lead one week. In fact the sales ratio has been anywhere from 2-1 to 3-1 in weekly sales.

Actually, this week is was 3 to 2 as it was two weeks ago, and a couple of weeks before that it was 5.2 to 4.8. Yes, HD DVD blew it by not trying to counter the introduction of the PS3 and strong release of BD titles to support it in the Xmas '06 - March '07 period, which gave BD it's strong lead for the year. What was it the week of March 18 that Sony touted in it's report? 81% BD sales? But, clearly HD DVD has come back and as long as it's capturing 40% of HD disc sales, it ain't going away. And the longer both formats remain competitive, the more likely studios will eye Warner's position as the leader in high def disc sales by releasing on both formats.

The fact is the PS3 was supposed to be the "killer app" that finally laid HD DVD to rest and maintain at least that 80% sales lead. It didn't, and what to we have now? There are 20 Blu-ray exclusive releases scheduled for June to August (to 39 exclusive to HD DVD). And where is the BD studio support? Of that 20 exclusive BD releases:
Fox = 0
MGM = 0
Lionsgate = 4
Disney = 2
Sony = 24

So much for that "overwhelming studio support".

With all the low cost HD-DVD players and the nice 5 free movies and $100 off firesale I suspect that Toshiba is trying to submarine the newer lower cost players coming from the BD camp. The sale of all those players are what should spike HD-DVD sales. If the HD-DVD camp can regain the lead at least in some weekly sales comparisons then they can say that they have turned the corner.

I agree. In fact, with the 5 to 10 fold increase in HD DVD players reported by Toshiba with the $100 rebate promo coupled with the stronger release schedule of HD DVD's this summer (58 HD DVD releases to 39 BD, counting WB & Paramount dual format releases), I predict HD DVD will regain the lead in weekly sales during July. When that happens, expect several members of the BDA to start saying "Houston, we have a problem!"

However, I believe that the BD camp will match them in the standalone low cost arena by XMAS and that with considerably more BD content hitting the shelves during the XMAS season we might see BD take a hugh leap in the weekly sales ratio. I believe that this is the main reason that Toshiba is pushing the older player down in price. This just might work -- I doubt it -- but there is always that chance.

First of all, what "older player"?
Toshiba markets 3 current players, based on price & market segment:
HD A2: Max 1080i output, multi-channel audio via HDMI only
HD A20: Max 1080p output, HDMI only for multi-channel audio
HD XA2: 1080p, analog & HDMI multi-channel audio, HDMI 1.3, top of the line Silicon Optix Reon HQV processor.

The first three weeks of the $100 rebate applies only to the A2, that last week it applies to all players.

The movie studios are interested in discs sales and discs sales only. That is how they make their money and if the sales are not there then they will not be bringing out their product on the disc. If you really want to see your format win then start buying discs in the format of your choice. 37 BD movies and counting.

Yep, any business cares foremost about selling their product. Since Fox doesn't have anymore announced titles, are we to assume the sales weren't there for them on BD?

Anyway, while I do own both formats, I still clearly prefer HD DVD. For Warner & Paramount dual format releases, I buy the HD DVD version.
HD DVD movies: 38 and counting
Blu-ray: 10 and on hold after Apocalypto with nothing new I want on the horizon.

 

[navychop]

From Home Media Magazine:

Software units sales ratios as of 6/10/07:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 66.......HD-DVD 34
YTD:....................Blu-ray 67.......HD-DVD 33
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 59.......HD-DVD 41

Normalized to make comparison with previous postings easier:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 63.9
YTD:....................Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 49.3
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 69.5

Slight see-saw. Things are staying vaguely in the area of Blu-ray outselling HD DVD 2 to 1.

 

[CochiseGuy]

From Home Media Magazine:

Software units sales ratios as of 6/10/07:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 66.......HD-DVD 34
YTD:....................Blu-ray 67.......HD-DVD 33
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 59.......HD-DVD 41

Normalized to make comparison with previous postings easier:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 63.9
YTD:....................Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 49.3
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 69.5

Slight see-saw. Things are staying vaguely in the area of Blu-ray outselling HD DVD 2 to 1.

This week' issue of Home Media Magazine is highly recommended.
(Flash required for Nxtbook). At the end of the "regular" weekly edition is the 32 page quarterly "Hollywood Goes High Def" Summer 2007 publication. A lot of slick ads, tons of statistics, and unbiased, professional editorial that Bill Hunt could only dream of.

"Its been a year since the two next-generation formats cam to market. Since then both formats have gained alot of traction amid growing sentiments that the so-called "format war isn't necessarily such a bad thing after all. It's driving down hardware prices on both sides. . . . studios are cranking their release schedules into high gear."

And several interesting reports, such as this:

Top 10 High-Def Sellers, Aggregate by Title
Since Inception through May 27 2007:

TITLE: STUDIO: FORMAT: UNITS SOLD:
1- The Departed Warner HD DVD/Blu-ray 100,500
2- Superman Returns Warner HD DVD/Blu-ray 84,100
3- Casino Royale Sony Blu-ray 83,600
4- Batman Begins Warner HD DVD 53,500
5- MIssion Impossible Paramount HD DVD/Blu-ray 51,400
6- Planet Earth Warner/BBC HD DVD/Blu-ray 44,700
7- Happy Feet Warner HD DVD/Blu-ray 40,100
8- Goodfellas Warner HD DVD/Blu-ray 38,200
9- The Prestige BV/Disney Blu-ray 34,700
10- The Fifth Element Sony Blu-ray 33,800

(Their report, page 16 of the supplement, is actually for the Top 20; I'm too lazy to re-type it all for ya'.)

Sales still a drop in the bucket compared to DVD, but with dual format releases dominating 7* of the top 10 sales, I don't see either format going away anytime soon. I hope not, the competition is win-win for the consumer.

And with Warner garnering 6 of the top 10 sales, they're laughing all the way to the bank over this 'format war'.

(* 7 of 10 - I'm counting #4 Batman Begins as dual format as Warner has said it will bring it to blu-ray at some point)

 

[navychop]

Yep, it's a very good issue. I'm still reading it. I thought about posting various stuff in it, but there's so much.

Any thoughts you care to post on the European HD battleground article? I did not realize they still limit releases to certain countries there. I figured the whole EU was open, once you sold in one country.

 

[navychop]

From Home Media Magazine:

Software units sales ratios as of 6/10/07:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 64.......HD-DVD 36
YTD:....................Blu-ray 67.......HD-DVD 33
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 59.......HD-DVD 41

Normalized to make comparison with previous postings easier:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 56.3
YTD:....................Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 49.3
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 69.5

Another swing toward HD DVD. From the chart, it looks like the swings might be narrowing.

 

[navychop]

Please note there is a transcription error in my reporting for 6/10. The line:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 63.9
Should read:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 51.5

 

[navychop]

From Home Media Magazine:

Software units sales ratios as of 6/24/07 (post #17 was for 6/17):
Week ending .........Blu-ray 70.......HD-DVD 30
YTD:....................Blu-ray 67.......HD-DVD 33
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 59.......HD-DVD 41

Normalized to make comparison with previous postings easier:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 42.9
YTD:....................Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 49.3
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 69.5

Another swing, in favor of Blu-ray. Odd how each week it swings in the opposite direction.

 

[rad]

Here's someone that looked at the Hollywood $'s for recent years and if the movie was on BD only, HD-DVD only, both or neither, Random Thoughts » Blog Archive » By The Numbers - Why the HD DVD/Blu-Ray War Is Over If the content is king argument will decide the war the it looks like BD has the upper hand.

 

[navychop]

Good article. Reminds me of postings early on in the war about Universal having had few blockbusters in the last few years, and none likely in the near term due to budget constraints.

 

[navychop]

From Home Media Magazine:

Software units sales ratios as of 7/1/07:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 65.......HD-DVD 35
YTD:....................Blu-ray 67.......HD-DVD 33
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 60.......HD-DVD 40

Normalized to make comparison with previous postings easier:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 53.8
YTD:....................Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 49.3
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 66.7

Still flip flopping each week. But as you can see in the chart below, HD DVD continues a slight slide in overall trend. This quarter may be very interesting.

 

[navychop]

From Home Media Magazine:

Software units sales ratios as of 7/8/07:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 66.......HD-DVD 34
YTD:....................Blu-ray 67.......HD-DVD 33
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 60.......HD-DVD 40

Normalized to make comparison with previous postings easier:
Week ending .........Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 51.5
YTD:....................Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 49.3
Since inception:.....Blu-ray 100.......HD-DVD 66.7

Definite leveling out trend (see chart below). Staying right around 2:1 in favor of Blu-ray for week and YTD sales. Nielson does not report sales such as the hundreds of thousands of BD copies that will be sold to Blockbuster.

 

[tonyp56]

I still think it is too early to tell. Sure Blu-Ray is doing good, and does have the right support, but a lot can change, and all it really takes is something else better to come out that knocks both out (which is what I think will end up happening, just a gut feeling)

 

[navychop]

If they drag out the format war, you'll be right.

 

[Paradox-SJ]

I questions ANYTHING Nielson......that said and for sake of this discussion I will assume they are correct.....

How is it that the HD-DVD group says they have sold more players but they still sell fewer units of sofware...do they have an 'excuse' for this?

 

[r.jones1116]

I questions ANYTHING Nielson......that said and for sake of this discussion I will assume they are correct.....

How is it that the HD-DVD group says they have sold more players but they still sell fewer units of sofware...do they have an 'excuse' for this?

The PS3 is a gaming console and is not counted as a stand alone player. HDDVD stand alone players have out sold BD stand alone players about 70 to 30 worldwide.
As far as software is concerned, first quarter 2007 was a really dry period for HDDVD disc releases while BD releases were frequent. This, coupled with the newness of the PS3 with no descent games to play, boosted BD software sales.

 

[JoeSp]

HD-DVD is releasing a ton of titles right now. Heck they will release close to 40 in the month of July alone while the BD group is going to be lucky to see 15 new releases for July. If HD-DVD doesn't find parity with the low cost players and the numerically supperior releases in July then it is never going to happen. They need to strike while the iron is smoking cause come September and you are going to see a ton of BD releases of big hits from the last 3 years hit the shelves along with some low cost players that will be hitting the market in time for XMAS.

This is going to be a real interesting XMAS!