bbtkd said:
OK - if you were in their place and had millions of MPEG2 receivers out there, mostly SD - what would you do? Remember their goal - increase HD, implement MPEG4 - and eventually start eliminating SD channels where duplicated by HD.
First, whatever you do, you avoid making it look like you're trying to get your loyal customer base to pay for the big move. Instead you make them feel like they're getting a reward for their loyalty but at the same time are also needed to help carry this jump into reality.
bbtkd said:
So - the first logical step is to uplink new HD channels in MPEG4 to entice existing lucrative HD customers.
Yes on the uplink - no on the "entice" - that's as transparent as it appears and combined with the word "lucrative" comes across as "we'll squeeze as much as we can out of them first to pay for this thing".
Instead you uplink all the new channels in MPEG2 (which is what they've done), so all existing HD customers can get them but be clear that this is temporary and part of the overall move to MPEG4 and better PQ for all HD.
This does 2 things:
1. It at least comes closer to fulfilling the earlier promise of "all 21 Voom channels by the end of '05" "plus maybe one or two more channels". This helps discredit Dish's past history of broken promises instead of substaniating it.
2. It makes existing customers feel included instead of exploited. Your getting part of something now but your also expected to do something in exchange for this and more to come.
What it doesn't do is try to decieve customers like the disguising MPEG2 as MPEG4 move so obviously tried to do. Dish has always underestimated the ability of their customers being able to figure out what's really going on.
bbtkd said:
For this first step, they need only swap out the HD receivers in each household. The next step would be to start eliminating MPEG2 HD channels, pushing the rest of the HD customers to take the MPEG4 deal - and at that point the deal will be sweetened.
Both steps are logical but they need to be implemented in a way that builds true customer support over the whole spectrum, not buys it from some at the expense of others which is exactly what your senerio does. That only serves to make some customers feel like they're getting exploited and decieved. It also tells the customers with the "sweetened" deal, as you so eliquintly put it, that they could be next on the "get screwed" list and the ones that jumped first this time that they'd have been better off waiting.
No, being honest up front works better. Tell all customers from the get-go what the plan is. Tell them that although the move to MPEG4 is NOT ready yet, they will have to move fast as soon as it is and in the mean time our goal is to get everyone ready that wants to move forward towards better HD.
This way existing customers understand the plan: that they're being given something now (the new channels in MPEG2) but in exchange for that they're expected to upgrade their receivers within a reasonable period of time or they not only loose the new channels but untimitly all HD as it moves to MPEG4.
There is the added perk that the sooner this takes place the sooner all HD channels get back to their appropiate resolution and PQ.
bkbbd said:
While this is going on - over the next 6-9 months, all new receivers are MPEG4 and HD. Then when most of the HD customers have upgraded, Dish will need to move everyone else on to MPEG4/HD. At that point they will have the sweet deal for us to upgrade our current SD receivers.
I would expect that within 16-18 months that their goal is to eliminate all SD and MPEG2 receivers and to eliminate all SD channels that duplicate HD channels. Also - they can then easily swap up SD channels to HD since everyone will have HD receivers that can downconvert for SD TVs if necessary.
The conversion of all SD receivers to MPEG4 will fall into place by itself because within the realistic time frame necessary for the above and that replacement receivers will only be with MPEG4 equivilents anyway, by the time the above is complete, most subs will have been upgraded anyway.
It also has the side benefit of making it easy for any SD sub to move into HD any time.
bkbbd said:
If this is not their plan, or if they don't have one - then they are foolish.
Now what are the odds of that being the case?
bkbbd said:
Many don't like the first step because it appears that they are going to eat it on SD upgrades later, but I figure we just need to wait until summer. Lastly - do the math and you will see that this swap out will be expensive for Dish, but they are betting that the few customers that leave out of frustration will be overwhelmingly replaced by new customers wanting the new HD Dish network. Guess what - they will be what Voom wanted to be! Voom was just ahead of it's time and had poor planning...
I can't address everyone of your misconceptions but as for the swap out, that expense exists no matter what happens. Attempting to place the brunt of it disproportionately on existing subs in the first phase and before you've even got MPEG4 ready gives the appearance of just what it is.
In my opinion, this combined with no attempt to repair broken promises of the past only serves to alienate existing (high paying) customers plus make Dish look worse to potential new customers, who (and everyone seems to forget this) WILL be existing customers too someday.