Predictions on last week's sales

[ONUOsFan]

Any guesses as to what last week's numbers will look like? I can't remember when they actually come out... but I'm thinking it will look something like this:

1. HP: Order of the Phoenix (BD)
2. HP: Order of the Phoenix (HD)
3. Bourne Ultimatum (HD)
4. HP: Goblet of Fire (BD)
5. HP: Prisoner of Azkaban (BD)
6. HP: Goblet of Fire (HD)
7. HP: Goblet of Prisoner of Azkaban (HD)
8. High School Musical 2 (BD)

The rest would be a mix of the other HP titles and other stuff.....

Then again, I could be totally wrong - wouldn't be the first time.

Just thought it would be fun to try a guess...

 

[teachsac]

1. order of the Phoenix (BD)
2. Order of the Phoenix (HD DVD)
3. BOurne Ultimatum (HD DVD)
3 1/2 Pirates3
4. Harry Potter Gift set (BD)
5. Hary Potter Gift set (HD DVD)
6. Bourne Trilogy (Amazon Exclusive)
7. Rest of Harry Potters
8. Planet Earth (HD DVD)
9. High School Musical 2

 

[FreddyvsJasonvsAsh]

the first 4 HP's are selling better than 5 on BD and HD

 

[ONUOsFan]

the first 4 HP's are selling better than 5 on BD and HD

Where are you seeing that?

 

[allargon]

All of you are in a dream world if you think Pirates won't bleed over into last week's #'s.

 

[teamerickson]

All of you are in a dream world if you think Pirates won't bleed over into last week's #'s.

Well, ONOUs is living in "The Matrix".

 

[teachsac]

OK. I was just ranking what came out this week. Pirates #4

 

[teachsac]

Ok. Maybe it's time to change out predictions. I guess Oprah has some say because Planet Earth (HD DVD) is #10 and #38 (BD) at Amazon. Bourne Trilogy is ranked higher than Harry potter on either format as is Bourne Ultimatum. Of Course total numbers are split between two formats. Box set is higher for BD, but OOTP is slightly higher on HD DVD than its BD counterpart. I don't think we'll see a 2-1 advantage for BD for Harry Potter. We'll have to wait and see the numbers and Neilsen breakdown Friday. I guess I'll take HSM2 off the list as it is #1415 in DVD sales.

Interesting

 

[allargon]

Ok. Maybe it's time to change out predictions. I guess Oprah has some say because Planet Earth (HD DVD) is #10 and #38 (BD) at Amazon. Bourne Trilogy is ranked higher than Harry potter on either format as is Bourne Ultimatum. Of Course total numbers are split between two formats. Box set is higher for BD, but OOTP is slightly higher on HD DVD than its BD counterpart. I don't think we'll see a 2-1 advantage for BD for Harry Potter. We'll have to wait and see the numbers and Neilsen breakdown Friday. I guess I'll take HSM2 off the list as it is #1415 in DVD sales.

Interesting

HSM2 is a TV show that was available for free on the Disney channel. Lost didn't do anything and neither did Battlestar Galactica. People aren't in the mood to pay a premium for what they already saw for free. TV shows, children's shows and musicals all do poorly on high def. The #1 high def player is a gaming console. As a result, action, adventure and horror movies tend to sell well to the gamer demographic.

 

[ONUOsFan]

All of you are in a dream world if you think Pirates won't bleed over into last week's #'s.

You're probably right. After seeing what I and some others are seeing, I would definitely put it above HSM2... I still kind of think Bourne and most of the HP's will beat it out though...

 

[ONUOsFan]

Well, ONOUs is living in "The Matrix".

Yeah, and everything is still in SD here... what gives? Well, hopefully the PQ will improve after Christmas - I think I see a Matrix-HD-DVD-sized box under the tree with my name on it...

 

[CochiseGuy]

1 Bourne 3 (HD DVD)
2 HP OOTP (BD)
3 HP OOTP (HD DVD)
4 POTC3
5 Superbad
6 Planet Earth HD
7 Spiderman 3
8 Transformers
9 Bourne Supremacy
10 Bourne Identity

Ratio: 55/45 (BD/HD)

The Amazon Bourne Trilogy will count as a sale for each individual title. Amazon uses ASIN (Amazon Standard Identification Number) for items internally, and created one for the Trilogy. But for Nielsen, they scan the titles' UPC. Bourne Ultimatum will reign supreme, helped with being BOGOed at BB starting Sunday, which will be included in last week. But the residual sales of BD "big" titles will keep HD DVD from winning the week. But, IMHO, the more important number this week is the BD/HD ratio for Mr. Potter. I think it will be 60/40 (1.5:1) or less for BD, keeping Warner dual format for 2008.

BTW, the Best Buy BOGO was great for Purple owners I combined Shrek with Mr & Mrs Smith.

 

[teamerickson]

BTW, the Best Buy BOGO was great for Purple owners I combined Shrek with Mr & Mrs Smith.

What? You could combine?

Tell me how to do it Cochise.

 

[CochiseGuy]

What? You could combine?

Tell me how to do it Cochise.

I bought mine in store yesterday. Page 9 of this week's flier has a list of specific titles included in the sale. It says "Buy One, Get One Free on any of these next generation titles". It doesn't say any 2 Blu-rays or any 2 HD DVDs.

The included titles are:

Qualifying Blu-ray discs:

28 Weeks Later ($29.99)
300 ($29.99)
Are We Done Yet? ($29.99)
The Condemned ($29.99)
Crank ($29.99)
The Departed ($29.99)
Fantastic 4: Rise Of The Silver Surfer ($34.99)
Harry Potter & Order Of The Phoenix Blu-Ray ($32.99)
Hostel: Part II ($29.99)
Mr. & Mrs. Smith ($34.99)
Mr. Brooks ($34.99)
Ocean’s Thirteen ($29.99)
SAW III ($29.99)
Spider-Man 3 ($29.99)
Underworld: Evolution ($29.99)

Qualifying HD DVD discs:

300 ($34.99)
Arctic Tale ($34.99)
Blades Of Glory ($29.99)
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Departed HD-DVD ($34.99)
Disturbia ($29.99)
Evan Almighty ($19.99)
Harry Potter & Order Of The Phoenix ($32.99)
I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ($29.99)
Knocked Up: Unrated ($19.99)
Mr. Bean’s Holiday ($29.99)
Ocean’s Thirteen ($34.99)
Shooter HD-DVD ($34.99)
Shrek The Third ($29.99)
Transformers ($29.99)

So, on my receipt it rang up Mr & Mrs Smith for $34.99 and Shrek for $0.00.

 

[CochiseGuy]

1 Bourne 3 (HD DVD)
2 HP OOTP (BD)
3 HP OOTP (HD DVD)
4 POTC3
5 Superbad
6 Planet Earth HD
7 Spiderman 3
8 Transformers
9 Bourne Supremacy
10 Bourne Identity

Ratio: 55/45 (BD/HD)

But, IMHO, the more important number this week is the BD/HD ratio for Mr. Potter. I think it will be 60/40 (1.5:1) or less for BD, keeping Warner dual format for 2008.

Well, I was a little off on the ratio and Harry Potter placements.

Dave Vaughn leaked some of the numbers yesterday in the AVSForum Nielsen Predictions Thread -

Bourne Ultimatum wins the week handily selling 3 discs for every 2 discs of second place POTC 3, which will show very strong sales in week 2 and pass Casino Royale in total sales.

On the Harry Potter front, sales will be a bit disappointing for such a big blockbuster. For every one HD DVD, the BD will sell 1.2 copies. HD DVD fans will see this as a “win”, but the fact remains, it will still sell more on BD in the first week.

The box sets in each of the formats will have similar results, but the BD’s will sell slightly better by a 1.3 margin. This will most likely be due to some people buying HP 4 from Europe, but who knows. Overall though, box set sales will be about 20% of the single unit sales.

Planet Earth will continue to show very strong sales on both HD DVD and BD, but for the week the HD DVD will sell almost 1.8 copies for every one 1 on BD as it surpasses the six figure mark in sales since it was first released. The BD should surpass this mark in 3-4 weeks if the trends continue.

So, for the week, 6 of the top 20 titles will be red, but Blu dominates again with 14 titles and handily wins the week 61% to 39% on what will be a record volume of sales for both formats.

So, some little Christmas stocking stuffers for both sides this week. BD won 61/39 in the heaviest high-def sales week yet. But Bourne and and a narrow 54.5/44.5 margin for BD on Harry Potter swung the BD margin down 15 points from last week (POTC3 moved the ratio 18 points the previous week).

Hmmm, let's see - "300" Blu-ray outsold HD DVD by 2 to 1. Ocean's 13 was only 1.5:1. Now HP5 is only 1.2:1, while HD DVD is sticking to BD with Planet Earth. I wonder if Warner is noticing this trend?

 

[ONUOsFan]

Well, I was a little off on the ratio and Harry Potter placements.

Dave Vaughn leaked some of the numbers yesterday in the AVSForum Nielsen Predictions Thread -



So, some little Christmas stocking stuffers for both sides this week. BD won 61/39 in the heaviest high-def sales week yet. But Bourne and and a narrow 54.5/44.5 margin for BD on Harry Potter swung the BD margin down 15 points from last week (POTC3 moved the ratio 18 points the previous week).

Hmmm, let's see - "300" Blu-ray outsold HD DVD by 2 to 1. Ocean's 13 was only 1.5:1. Now HP5 is only 1.2:1, while HD DVD is sticking to BD with Planet Earth. I wonder if Warner is noticing this trend?

I'll be curious to see the actual numbers behind this, but it's definitely noteworthy, especially the HP numbers, which I expected to be much stronger for BD.

I'm also curious how HP stands if you add up HD and BD and compare that to the Bourne sales.

 

[db2]

Well, it's official, HD-DVD will not win one week in 2007. If they can't win a week with the Bourne movie I don't know what it will take.

So let's see...Blu-Ray still has more players on the market...Blu-Ray is still selling more software every single week...and nearly every title released on both formats still sells more on Blu-Ray. I wonder if Warner will notice that??

 

[teamerickson]

Well, it's official, HD-DVD will not win one week in 2007. If they can't win a week with the Bourne movie I don't know what it will take.

So let's see...Blu-Ray still has more players on the market...Blu-Ray is still selling more software every single week...and nearly every title released on both formats still sells more on Blu-Ray. I wonder if Warner will notice that??

 

[teachsac]

Well, it's official, HD-DVD will not win one week in 2007. If they can't win a week with the Bourne movie I don't know what it will take.

So let's see...Blu-Ray still has more players on the market...Blu-Ray is still selling more software every single week...and nearly every title released on both formats still sells more on Blu-Ray. I wonder if Warner will notice that??

Still have the week of December 26th with 3 exclusives to Rush Hour 3.

 

[db2]

Still have the week of December 26th with 3 exclusives to Rush Hour 3.

You're right, anything's possible. HD-DVD could do a good BOGO to shift things too. Maybe "official" is too strong. "Unlikely" is probably better.