I thought that Dish had a few sats "sleeping" as critical DBS sats back-up co-located or elsewhere. I would imagine these could be put into full service should one of the current in operation sats have a complete or near complete failure or have to be retired to make the new required minimum de-orbit distance. If they still do have a few of those back-up sats, presumably they could get Dish by for a fair time as neither the fuel no the batteries have been greatly used. Let us know if Dish does have a few "sleeping" sats.
Dish, has always been SECRETIVE about what its future plans may be. While Dish has publicly stated it wants to stay in the sat business and focus on service in rural areas, I would not be surprised if one of Dish's possible plans is to migrate as many as they can over to SlingTV should the sats be near death, at some point, but not too soon.
I would also NOT be surprised if Dish is in secret talks with AT&T to at least LEASE one or more of their not too old functioning DTV DBS sats, ONLY because AT&T desperately needs some cool cash/revenue stream to give some value to its now "bird turd" (a phrase Rupert Murdoch often used to describe DTV after he was forced to sell his ownership share in DTV) brand and DTV business that does nothing but pull down AT&T further down the high debt waters and perceived value of AT&T and, instead, be able to start talking about how DTV is now bringing IN money while losing subscribers. At this point for AT&T, it would be worth having a perceived "competitor" pay THEM, however the benefit to Dish, to show they are making some lemonade (talk of revenues UP at DTV--from leasing or selling DBS sats to Dish) from the lemons DTV now have. After all, AT&T has stated that they are re-aligning their business focus LESS on vMVPD (the AT&T Now business) and focusing more on their Turner Media and, in particular, HBO service: HBO MAX. So Dish may not be perceived by AT&T as much of a real competitor as it may have been back when AT&T first purchased DTV.
Possible secret talks between Dish and AT&T to merge both, but that won't happen unless Ergen gets controlling interest, but that may be FINE with AT&T so long as they can report revenue from its partial sale, which can increase AT&T's stock price, which is what Wall Street ONLY cares about, a clear move to unload how ever much they can of DTV. The biggest hurdle to a merge would NOT be the Justice Dept. (Dish and DTV could agree to all sorts of conditions to get the merge approved), but Dish being able to finance a merge now that Dish is all-in on their 5G plan that will cost billions, and Dish & Echostar aren't that big of a company. Also, it can not be a reversed financed merge because AT&T has way too much debt now to do it. Perhaps a 3rd party being brought in as a minority partner could help financing, but who else would be crazy enough to buy into the shrinking DBS business? AT&T and Dish are the ONLY entities for whom selling one or the other to one or the other makes any sense, and AT&T wants OUT of satellite, so it is gonna have to be Ergen's to buy/merge. A whole lot of stock instead of too much cash could be part of the financing, but I can't see Ergen handing over much stock, but then again, AT&T investors may be willing to do what it takes to be able to say they are no longer a major owner/investor in their dying business at DTV. That could result in a AT&T stock price increase.
Another possible solution, that also posits what Dish will do with their wireless spectrum, to Dish's aging sat fleet situation is moving MVPD services to part of their new 5G network. I forget the name (too lazy to look it up now), but it is a technology that will allow have an MVPD service via terrestrial radio waves, including 5G. It would take a few years, but it would be just in time when the sats would be in their final days of life, and Dish has made it clear their wireless business will NOT be consumer-centric, meaning they are NOT going to compete with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile in the consumer mobile phone business. Instead Dish's 5G wireless business will be tailored for Enterprise customers where they see the opportunity to make real money (Alphabet could certainly use Dish's ALL 5G network for their driver-less Waymo biz, as one example), but Dish could still use a lot of the spectrum for its own terrestrial MVPD TV service that can even, eventually, serve rural areas.
And don't worry about any deadlines being met because hardly anyone is going to make the deadlines, and FCC regularly hands-out WAIVERS/EXTENSIONS like candy at Halloween. So long as Dish, and other wireless companies, can demonstrate they have contracts with tower builders (which they do, but still, the tower industry has already stated that their customers are NOT likely to meet deadlines due overwhelming demand along with the long time it takes to properly train new hires--so they aren't killed on the job like last year--and ramp-up the build-outs), and are moving along in the process, which also includes Dish already having agreements with hardware suppliers, etc. Dish has contracts and is spending money. Dish won't be denied an extension should it come to that, as it is likely the other wireless companies will be in the same position.
I have no doubt Charlie has some plan for the aging sat fleet. We just don't know what it is because he aint a tellin'.
spacenews.com
