Replacing Aging Birds?

MrDRC

SatelliteGuys Pro
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Pub Member / Supporter
Jan 29, 2004
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Way South via the Northern Lands
Anyone have any info about replacing the satellites? I know 61 is degraded and it looks as if the others are approaching their end of expected life very soon. Seems like a conundrum for Charlie. Launching new birds is ridiculously expensive. Not sure he can justify it with current subscriptions. Anyone hear about their plans? I've checked lynsat (sp) and any the others I could find but nothing appears imminent.
 
In recent uplink reports, Dish seems to be trying to eliminate standard-def locals in as many markets as possible. I think they are simply going to cut the total number of channels they carry, and shuffle things around to use the remaining satellite capacity they have left. By eliminating all of those local spotbeams, they can reuse those frequencies for CONUS channels instead. The near-term plan is to start eliminating SD-duplicate national channels from Western Arc entirely. Dish has already started that process, by not uplinking SD feeds for their out-of-market sports packages (NHL, NBA, MLB) this year.
 
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Actually, in a very few years, probably less than five, the launch costs of such satellites will be much lower. But sats will still be expensive to build.

Will satellites experience a comeback? Will Dish get to buy 1 or 2 DTV satellites?

I wouldn’t bet money on it. But I think satellites will be around for many years to come. And there may be a trick or two up their sleeves.

The cost of sending signals to millions of receivers is about the same as to one receiver. The cost of sending signals to millions of receivers via millions of feeds is less efficient. Plus, a single interface and UI has advantages. Streaming prices are finally being forced up, to reduce losses. Things will shake out.

Will satellites be here forever? Naw. But they won’t go away as fast as some expect. Dish can survive without sports or even locals. Will content providers be able to restrict access to only their own streams? Doubtful, for both economic reasons and the questionable likelihood of the government allowing such.

And HEVC or it’s successor can make limited satellite bandwidth much more efficient, at the expense of replacing millions of receivers. That might drive an unannounced feature of the next Hopper. Still, satellites last only so long. But if they launch another, I’ll bet it will be refuelable in orbit.
 
I honestly don't understand why Dish and/or DirecTV haven't positioned themselves as a premium high quality TV service. And I don't understand why the MVPDs (meaning Dish/DirecTV/cable) haven't worked with the program providers to re-sell the new streaming services

It's silly that paying a $120 cable/satellite bill doesn't also get you access to Disney+, Discovery+, Hulu, and Peacock. It's obvious that all of these are going to replace cable TV eventually, so if the programmers want to keep that revenue stream going why not just tack on streaming to the linear channels?

But back to my point, satellite TV should be the absolute top tier experience. They need to rip the bandaid off fast with dumping SD duplicates so they can free up bandwidth and provide an HD feed for every channel that offers it at the absolute highest quality possible. They should also beef up the linear 4K content available. They should have every sporting event possible available. They should bundle in as many streaming apps as possible. They need to give people a reason not to cut the cord, not continue a race to the bottom to see who will be the last one standing to serve people over 60 and those who live on the prairie with no hope of broadband
I’ll bet it will be refuelable in orbit.
That would cost more than just sending up a new satellite. Geosynchronous satellites are 22,000 miles away. The space station is 150-ish miles in altitude. There is no technology to send something that far away to refuel, it would just be another satellite itself
 
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And we can expect they'll do all these things at an affordable mass market price?
Well they're already not at an affordable mass market price. They need to do those things if they're going to keep charging a premium

It's going to take some investment to get to that point, because they need to replace equipment to get rid of SD duplicates, etc; and it would take some cooperation from the content companies--especially local channels. The other side to it that I didn't include before is the actual breakup of the bundle, or at least shaving off the highest cost items. If they do want to be a low cost alternative they need to get the local channels to allow not subscribing (which is an option on Dish but not most other MVPDs) and also the ability to not subscribe to RSNs and ESPN

It's sticky, and hard to do, but it's what has to happen if these companies aren't going to die out. At the current trajectory at the end of the day there will be one linear TV service left and it will look more like Orby than Dish or Comcast
 
I read that Direct a while ago stated they will not launch any new Satellites which I suppose means potential disaster for them should one fail unless they have backup.

I haven't heard anything about this from Dish and wonder if they have any satellites under construction, something we used to hear about. Could satellite sharing be an option?
 
That would cost more than just sending up a new satellite. Geosynchronous satellites are 22,000 miles away. The space station is 150-ish miles in altitude. There is no technology to send something that far away to refuel, it would just be another satellite itself
Not to mention that by the time the satellite would need to be refueled, the technology in the satellite itself would be so outdated that the whole thing would need to be replaced anyway. Ten years (or whatever the expected lifespan of these birds actually is) can bring about a whole bunch of advancements in satellite technology that should be included in a new bird.
 
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It's silly that paying a $120 cable/satellite bill doesn't also get you access to Disney+, Discovery+, Hulu, and Peacock. It's obvious that all of these are going to replace cable TV eventually, so if the programmers want to keep that revenue stream going why not just tack on streaming to the linear channels?
Broadcasters no longer care about the revenue stream from Traditional Providers as far as their future planning goes, they want all the money, no more sharing with Cable/Sat providers, use HBO as a example, it has been rumored that it costs $7-9 per sub, then the provider charges $15, HBO ( AT&T) wants all of the $15, hence the creation of HBO MAX which I believe will soon be direct to consumers only, no more access if you subscribe to Comcast for example.

Disney+ is another example, why subscribe to a cable service for those channels when you get all the content on their streaming service, since they already have 86.8 million subscribers in just a year, that is roughly $500-600 million a month, they are betting correctly on a world without Traditional Providers.
 
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Well they're already not at an affordable mass market price. They need to do those things if they're going to keep charging a premium

It's going to take some investment to get to that point, because they need to replace equipment to get rid of SD duplicates, etc; and it would take some cooperation from the content companies--especially local channels. The other side to it that I didn't include before is the actual breakup of the bundle, or at least shaving off the highest cost items. If they do want to be a low cost alternative they need to get the local channels to allow not subscribing (which is an option on Dish but not most other MVPDs) and also the ability to not subscribe to RSNs and ESPN

It's sticky, and hard to do, but it's what has to happen if these companies aren't going to die out. At the current trajectory at the end of the day there will be one linear TV service left and it will look more like Orby than Dish or Comcast
I suspect trying to accomplish all of that would just push the pricing even higher as the lawyers grab significant billable hours to negotiate and renegotiate the hundreds of contracts involved. Dish is diversifying with Sling and Dish Wireless, so they do have that going for them. As far as satellites go, I'm not knowledgeable enough to know what leasing options might be available or what Echostar might have going on in the background if replacements are needed. I'd think having a sister company that's satellite based could be a distinct advantage although I believe Echostar currently has only one Ku only sat in orbit and one or two split Ka/Ku sats.
 
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In recent uplink reports, Dish seems to be trying to eliminate standard-def locals in as many markets as possible.
Do you happen to know if that includes the Orlando DMA? The SD channels are on my guide, BUT when you tune to them, they quickly switch to HD.
 
Do you happen to know if that includes the Orlando DMA? The SD channels are on my guide, BUT when you tune to them, they quickly switch to HD.
Not yet, as far as I can tell. When it does happen, there would be a change shown in the uplink report, similar to this change from January 20:
Other Changes
8890 KOCO OKLAHOMA CITY, OK (ABC) 110° 25s25 (Oklahoma) SD Hidden - Market Removed Mapdown Removed (was 5 Local)


(Market Removed Mapdown Removed is what you are looking for.)

When that happens, those SD feeds will no longer be mapped to their local channel numbers at all. Instead, they will only show up on their four-digit channel numbers. That would also remove the ability for those SD feeds to forward you to the HD channel during signal loss, since they would no longer share the same channel number in the guide. After so many weeks, Dish will then completely remove those SD feeds, and move on to converting the next set of local markets to HD-only.
 
what is Charlie doing with that ridiculous amount of 600-800 MHz spectrum he's owned for years? Is there any way to finagle that into video? Wonder if those hughesnet sats can carry video? They are newer. He has to be working on something to address the end life of those birds.

EDIT: this is ka band but wonder if it figures into the big picture?

 
what is Charlie doing with that ridiculous amount of 600-800 MHz spectrum he's owned for years? Is there any way to finagle that into video? Wonder if those hughesnet sats can carry video? They are newer. He has to be working on something to address the end life of those birds.

EDIT: this is ka band but wonder if it figures into the big picture?

Well, any Hopper, Joey, or Wally can handle live streaming channels through the internet connection. So, push come to shove, I could see more of the less-popular channels migrating to being streaming-only. If the channels do not agree to be carried that way, they will likely just get dropped entirely.
 
I thought that Dish had a few sats "sleeping" as critical DBS sats back-up co-located or elsewhere. I would imagine these could be put into full service should one of the current in operation sats have a complete or near complete failure or have to be retired to make the new required minimum de-orbit distance. If they still do have a few of those back-up sats, presumably they could get Dish by for a fair time as neither the fuel no the batteries have been greatly used. Let us know if Dish does have a few "sleeping" sats.

Dish, has always been SECRETIVE about what its future plans may be. While Dish has publicly stated it wants to stay in the sat business and focus on service in rural areas, I would not be surprised if one of Dish's possible plans is to migrate as many as they can over to SlingTV should the sats be near death, at some point, but not too soon.

I would also NOT be surprised if Dish is in secret talks with AT&T to at least LEASE one or more of their not too old functioning DTV DBS sats, ONLY because AT&T desperately needs some cool cash/revenue stream to give some value to its now "bird turd" (a phrase Rupert Murdoch often used to describe DTV after he was forced to sell his ownership share in DTV) brand and DTV business that does nothing but pull down AT&T further down the high debt waters and perceived value of AT&T and, instead, be able to start talking about how DTV is now bringing IN money while losing subscribers. At this point for AT&T, it would be worth having a perceived "competitor" pay THEM, however the benefit to Dish, to show they are making some lemonade (talk of revenues UP at DTV--from leasing or selling DBS sats to Dish) from the lemons DTV now have. After all, AT&T has stated that they are re-aligning their business focus LESS on vMVPD (the AT&T Now business) and focusing more on their Turner Media and, in particular, HBO service: HBO MAX. So Dish may not be perceived by AT&T as much of a real competitor as it may have been back when AT&T first purchased DTV.

Possible secret talks between Dish and AT&T to merge both, but that won't happen unless Ergen gets controlling interest, but that may be FINE with AT&T so long as they can report revenue from its partial sale, which can increase AT&T's stock price, which is what Wall Street ONLY cares about, a clear move to unload how ever much they can of DTV. The biggest hurdle to a merge would NOT be the Justice Dept. (Dish and DTV could agree to all sorts of conditions to get the merge approved), but Dish being able to finance a merge now that Dish is all-in on their 5G plan that will cost billions, and Dish & Echostar aren't that big of a company. Also, it can not be a reversed financed merge because AT&T has way too much debt now to do it. Perhaps a 3rd party being brought in as a minority partner could help financing, but who else would be crazy enough to buy into the shrinking DBS business? AT&T and Dish are the ONLY entities for whom selling one or the other to one or the other makes any sense, and AT&T wants OUT of satellite, so it is gonna have to be Ergen's to buy/merge. A whole lot of stock instead of too much cash could be part of the financing, but I can't see Ergen handing over much stock, but then again, AT&T investors may be willing to do what it takes to be able to say they are no longer a major owner/investor in their dying business at DTV. That could result in a AT&T stock price increase.

Another possible solution, that also posits what Dish will do with their wireless spectrum, to Dish's aging sat fleet situation is moving MVPD services to part of their new 5G network. I forget the name (too lazy to look it up now), but it is a technology that will allow have an MVPD service via terrestrial radio waves, including 5G. It would take a few years, but it would be just in time when the sats would be in their final days of life, and Dish has made it clear their wireless business will NOT be consumer-centric, meaning they are NOT going to compete with Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile in the consumer mobile phone business. Instead Dish's 5G wireless business will be tailored for Enterprise customers where they see the opportunity to make real money (Alphabet could certainly use Dish's ALL 5G network for their driver-less Waymo biz, as one example), but Dish could still use a lot of the spectrum for its own terrestrial MVPD TV service that can even, eventually, serve rural areas.

And don't worry about any deadlines being met because hardly anyone is going to make the deadlines, and FCC regularly hands-out WAIVERS/EXTENSIONS like candy at Halloween. So long as Dish, and other wireless companies, can demonstrate they have contracts with tower builders (which they do, but still, the tower industry has already stated that their customers are NOT likely to meet deadlines due overwhelming demand along with the long time it takes to properly train new hires--so they aren't killed on the job like last year--and ramp-up the build-outs), and are moving along in the process, which also includes Dish already having agreements with hardware suppliers, etc. Dish has contracts and is spending money. Dish won't be denied an extension should it come to that, as it is likely the other wireless companies will be in the same position.

I have no doubt Charlie has some plan for the aging sat fleet. We just don't know what it is because he aint a tellin'.
 
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Dish currently leases three Canadian owned satellites. I have no idea what other lease opportunities Dish might have available in lieu of launching more of their own satellites.
 
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Maybe so but DTV needs to dump the product. I wish the damn Justice Department would get their act together because if the truly analyzed the market a merger should happen.
As far as I know, the Justice Department can't force a merger if the parties involved are not already in merger talks. So, at this point, it is not their job, yet.
 
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