The NBA Draft Lottery- How important is it to win it?

[SabresRule]

Prior to game 1 of the Nuggets/Lakers Western Conference Finals, the NBA's annual Draft Lottery will take place.

This annual drawing of ping-pong balls can be considered a pivotal moment for teams trying to get in position to draft a player that can change their franchise's fortunes.

It always makes me wonder- is it really a big deal to win the Draft Lottery?

Let's consider both sides.

The case for winning

Patrick Ewing in 1985- turned the Knicks franchise around (No frozen envelope references, please)

Orlando getting Shaq in 1992 and somehow getting the #1 pick again a year later, landing Penny Hardaway

San Antonio getting Tim Duncan in 1997

Cleveland getting LeBron in 2003- as HD said in his open letter to LBJ, "May 22, 2003. The Cleveland Cavaliers scored perhaps the biggest victory in franchise history. The right to the #1 overall selection in the '03 NBA Draft."

Chicago getting Derrick Rose last year

On the other side, sometimes not getting the #1 (or #2) pick is not always doom and gloom for a franchise OR even good for a franchise. Consider:

Bill, you know this very well. In 2007, Boston was a trendy pick to get the first/second pick in the Oden/Durant draft- they selected fifth. At the time, there is no way you possibly could have thought, "We won't get the high pick- no Oden or Durant- but we'll still win the NBA title next year." After all, look at what happened- drafting Big Baby, trading for Ray Allen, etc. What seemed like a nightmare turned out to be the best thing that could have happened.

2001- Washington drafts Kwame Brown when they easily could have taken Pau Gasol, Shane Battier, Agent Zero (they could have had him from day one), Tony Parker, Joe Johnson, etc.

2005- Milwaukee wins the lottery and makes a bad pick- choosing Andrew Bogot over CP3 and Deron Williams

Those are the cases for and against what happens in the Draft Lottery.

Your thoughts?

 

[BillD1984]

Bill, you know this very well. In 2007, Boston was a trendy pick to get the first/second pick in the Oden/Durant draft- they selected fifth. At the time, there is no way you possibly could have thought, "We won't get the high pick- no Oden or Durant- but we'll still win the NBA title next year." After all, look at what happened- drafting Big Baby, trading for Ray Allen, etc. What seemed like a nightmare turned out to be the best thing that could have happened.

One minor correction: the Celtics didn't draft Big Baby, Seattle did.

The night of the draft, the Celtics sent #5 overall pick Jeff Green (Georgetown), Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak to the Sonics for Big Baby (#35 overall pick) and Ray Allen.

 

[CharlesO]

One minor correction: the Celtics didn't draft Big Baby, Seattle did.

The night of the draft, the Celtics sent #5 overall pick Jeff Green (Georgetown), Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak to the Sonics for Big Baby (#35 overall pick) and Ray Allen.

True, but the Sonics told the Celtics to draft Green and the Celtics likewise told the Sonics to draft Davis.

 

[HD MM]

One minor correction: the Celtics didn't draft Big Baby, Seattle did.

The night of the draft, the Celtics sent #5 overall pick Jeff Green (Georgetown), Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak to the Sonics for Big Baby (#35 overall pick) and Ray Allen.

Part 3 of that trade later on in the year sent Delonte and Wally from Seattle to Cleveland for Ira Newble and Donyell Marshall.

 

[salsadancer7]

Unless there are some serious standouts....sometimes even the ome of the top 5 picks can be uneventful.

 

[HD MM]

Unless there is a clear-cut #1 pick it's not important. I don't think there is a "can't miss" type guy in this year's draft, so it's not too important this year.

And as far as salary cap goes, an NBA team, unlike the NFL won't have to worry about committing large sums of money to the top pick before they prove their way in the league. The NBA CBA already has a negotiated salary for rookies depending on draft position.

 

[HD MM]

Cavs Interested in Psycho T?!

The Cavs have two picks from what I gather. (#30 and #46)

Upcoming free agents include Zydrunas Illgauskas, Joe Smith, Wally Szerbiak, Anderson Varejao and Lorenzen Wright. Ben Wallace is also in his last year under contract next year and would most likely be an attractive player to trade due to his expiring contract.

In the draft, we will probably be pursuing some more depth to our front court even though this is an atrocious draft for big men.

From what I've read, the Cav's are interested in Tyler Hansbrough for his consistency and energy. He can also play defense which is key for this Cavs team. If Psycho T is available at #30, I wouldn't be surprised at all for the Cavs to pick him.

 

[Paul Wozniak]

If you draft at the top of the draft you have a chance at drafting an "impact" player. Sometimes it's not where you draft, but whom you draft. Witness the Piston's in '03 taking Darko with the second pick. We all know how that worked out. The Piston's have done better with later picks than early picks.

 

[SandraC]

The higher you draft the better, obviously, but this is a very inexact science. You need to make good decisions no matter what slot you draft in.

Every sport is filled with Tom Bradys, who are drafted low but turn out to be superstars. I don't remember fans of any other team calling in the next day to find out why their team didn't draft Brady. A few years later, of course, everyone wants to know why their team didn't draft him. Even the Patriots passed on Brady five times.

I think I do remember Tayshaun Prince falling the the Pistons late in the first round, and I bet if you look at that draft you'll find a number of players drafted before him who did not turn out.

To address your point, yes, drafting first is better than drafting second, which is better than drafting third, etc. But what's more important is for teams to make the most of whatever slot they draft in.


Sandra

 

[Paul Wozniak]

Hi Sandra.

 

[anders5189]

From what I've read, the Cav's are interested in Tyler Hansbrough for his consistency and energy. He can also play defense which is key for this Cavs team. If Psycho T is available at #30, I wouldn't be surprised at all for the Cavs to pick him.

If you teamed up Hansbrough with Lebron there wouldn't be a harder working team in the NBA.

 

[HD MM]

If you teamed up Hansbrough with Lebron there wouldn't be a harder working team in the NBA.

I hope he drops to 30. It would be a good fit for both parties.

 

[thowe21]

Blake Griffin should be special...but not too many power forwards are rated as a game changer like Tim Duncan was in '97. Don't see Griffin being the next Duncan. As far as Ricky Rubio goes, too many unknowns... I'd say this years draft will be deep, but not overall great.

 

[mrof]

That's why it's called the lottery. When they make a good pick, they hit the jackpot and when they don't, it's bust written all over. But there are the so-called sleepers waiting to be uncovered like Baby Davis as you mentioned.

 

[IcEWoLF]

I hope Blake Griffin doesn't end up in LAC.
They suck.
They will never get better anytime soon.

 

[SabresRule]

I hope Blake Griffin doesn't end up in LAC.
They suck.
They will never get better anytime soon.

That's what they said about the Tamps Bay Rays and Arizona Cardinals.

 

[SandraC]

If you teamed up Hansbrough with Lebron there wouldn't be a harder working team in the NBA.

There are a lot of very hard-working players in the NBA. Hansbrough may succeed, but he's going to be going up against players who are much bigger, stronger, and quicker than the one's he's been playing against. Tell Carlos Boozer he doesn't work hard. Or Lamar Odom. Or Kenyon Martin. Or Kevin Garnett.

Is Hansbrough strong enough to play against power forwards? Quick enough to play against small forwards? Not sure.

He's entering a different world now...


Sandra

 

[HD MM]

There are a lot of very hard-working players in the NBA. Hansbrough may succeed, but he's going to be going up against players who are much bigger, stronger, and quicker than the one's he's been playing against. Tell Carlos Boozer he doesn't work hard. Or Lamar Odom. Or Kenyon Martin. Or Kevin Garnett.

Is Hansbrough strong enough to play against power forwards? Quick enough to play against small forwards? Not sure.

He's entering a different world now...


Sandra

Yeah, Boozer works real hard. He "works hard" on stabbing blind owners, teams and fans in the back.

Sorry, but I still can't stand Boozer with a passion!

 

[Skyhi]

Yeah, Boozer works real hard. He "works hard" on stabbing blind owners, teams and fans in the back.

Sorry, but I still can't stand Boozer with a passion!

:up:up:up

 

[SandraC]

Yeah, Boozer works real hard. He "works hard" on stabbing blind owners, teams and fans in the back.

Sorry, but I still can't stand Boozer with a passion!

If Boozer had stayed with the Cavs they may not have been in the lottery to draft Lebron. Boozer should be your hero!

Doesn't change how hard Boozer works on the court, though. Boozer against Hansbrough would bea mismatch.


Sandra