Think Blu-ray has it easy in 2008? NPD says not so fast
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And that quote is the main reason why I think everyone who is spouting off about how prices are going to go up now is crazy... they can't afford to let that happen.
I'm not saying we're going to keep having BOGO sales every other week, but they have to keep driving prices down if they want to get any kind of adoption rate. The vast majority of consumers just don't see enough of a difference to warrant spending $300 for a new player and $10-$15 more per disc.
People forget about inflation. The studios are facing it and they want to raise prices. The costs between DVD and BD are very low in actuality. Yes you may spend more to author a disc, but that is a one time thing, and yes it may cost $1 more to replicate, but when you can charge $10 more it is pure gravey.
Studios know they are locked in the DVD prices now, and raising them will be very hard. BD gives them the margin improvement. $30+ a title seems a bit high, but it probably is about the same as a $20 title was in 97 when adjusted for inflation.
Warner wanted the war to end ASAP, they did not like having to give away content with BOGOs to fight a war they really had no interest in either camp. Have too many sales and consumers expect the price to be that way all the time and will not buy until it is on sale again. BD will stay high priced, but inflation adjusted it really is not any higher than DVD ever was. Inflation will drive down the price as the consumer's wages go up and $30 seems cheaper and cheaper.
Studios know they are locked in the DVD prices now, and raising them will be very hard. BD gives them the margin improvement. $30+ a title seems a bit high, but it probably is about the same as a $20 title was in 97 when adjusted for inflation.
Warner wanted the war to end ASAP, they did not like having to give away content with BOGOs to fight a war they really had no interest in either camp. Have too many sales and consumers expect the price to be that way all the time and will not buy until it is on sale again. BD will stay high priced, but inflation adjusted it really is not any higher than DVD ever was. Inflation will drive down the price as the consumer's wages go up and $30 seems cheaper and cheaper.
The war ended when Warner flipped to Blu. Paramount will announce within a month that they are doing the same.
The patient is dead, it just hasn't pitched forward yet.
It is a shame as I preferred the lack of region coding and the combo HD DVD/DVD discs that let me watch a movie in HD at home, and let the kids watch it on a portable DVD player when we travelled.
I own about 30 HD DVD discs, so I would like to find a combi player to protect my ability to watch those (I'm assuming the XBox360 player drive will eventually stop getting supported). If they don't drop below the $800 level, then I'll probably pick up a $299 BluRay player sometime in the next few months.
The patient is dead, it just hasn't pitched forward yet.
It is a shame as I preferred the lack of region coding and the combo HD DVD/DVD discs that let me watch a movie in HD at home, and let the kids watch it on a portable DVD player when we travelled.
I own about 30 HD DVD discs, so I would like to find a combi player to protect my ability to watch those (I'm assuming the XBox360 player drive will eventually stop getting supported). If they don't drop below the $800 level, then I'll probably pick up a $299 BluRay player sometime in the next few months.
The new Samsung is going to be around $600 to start. It comes out in May. I'll probably get one of those in the fall. I've been really happy with my Samsung 1400.
Let's do some simple math based on these two paragraphs:
I.e.
-6 million BD playback devices will be sold, 1.5 times more than the year before;
-40 million discs will be sold, 7 times more than the year before.
In other words, the "excitement" factor related to the war being over and it is safe to "jump in",
should increase the disc buying rate almost 5 times (7/1.5).
Anybody thinking this might be a bit too optimistic?
Diogen.
Stated by who? Somebody with a grudge against Blu-ray?
There are estimates that the Funai/Sylvania will sell for less than $300, and the Chinese player for even less (assuming it ever hits the streets). Does anyone really believe that prices for electronics will not go down? That pattern is well established. And the manufacturers know that they need to reduce prices to get more sales. They will. They always have.
I think a year from now we should be seeing $200 Blu-ray players.
You say 5.6M BDs were sold in 2007, and 40M will be sold in 2008. So maybe 2.8M HD DVDs were sold, roughly? 8.4M total, roughly? Figure on the demise of HD DVD and those sales moving to Blu-ray, 40/8.4=4.76, so the increase in sales would be a bit less than 5 fold. This, of course, assumes very few HD DVD sales in 2008.
Yep. Still sounds optimistic to me. Unless player sales go up faster than projected above. I don't expect the sales figures to be well publicized, so it may be a long time before we know.
Math Part II
From the latest report about DVD sales
DVD feels first sting of slipping sales - USATODAY.com
the total number of DVDs shipped is 1700 million as opposed to 5.6 million BDs. That makes it 0.33%.
Adding HDs will increase this number 50% (i.e. 2:1 sales ration), hence 0.5%.
Assuming DVD sales get frozen, this BD percent goes up 7 times next year (40/5.6), i.e. about 2.5%.
After that, according to predictions, it will follow the DVD acceptance curve, i.e. about double every year.
DVD Entertainment Group
That would mean it will take two more years (doubling twice) to bring this BD to DVD disc sales ratio to 10%.
To summarize, by the end of 2010 the BD market will be 10% of DVDs. Smashing success...
Diogen.
From the latest report about DVD sales
DVD feels first sting of slipping sales - USATODAY.com
the total number of DVDs shipped is 1700 million as opposed to 5.6 million BDs. That makes it 0.33%.
Adding HDs will increase this number 50% (i.e. 2:1 sales ration), hence 0.5%.
Assuming DVD sales get frozen, this BD percent goes up 7 times next year (40/5.6), i.e. about 2.5%.
After that, according to predictions, it will follow the DVD acceptance curve, i.e. about double every year.
DVD Entertainment Group
That would mean it will take two more years (doubling twice) to bring this BD to DVD disc sales ratio to 10%.
To summarize, by the end of 2010 the BD market will be 10% of DVDs. Smashing success...
Diogen.
I remember sitting in a meeting about a product we were bring to market. The marketing guys were stating that projected sales would be a $1-2 Million with minimum sales about $250k. I left the meeting saying that our minimum sales would be $0. Turns out, thats the number we hit.
Its all marketing hype.
This whole exercise was undertaken to get a time frame for BD to take off.
A 20% acceptance rate is sometimes used as the breaking point for a mass consumer product (e.g. HDTV).
Not taking price into account since it must be incorporated into BDA projections.
This level will be achieved in one more year, i.e. the end of 2011 (twice the 10% rate of 2010).
What is the likelihood that for 4 years (2008-2011) there will be no competition to BD? Nill, I'd guess.
BDA has just one chance to "force" the situation: make the studios stop releasing DVDs.
Diogen.
A 20% acceptance rate is sometimes used as the breaking point for a mass consumer product (e.g. HDTV).
Not taking price into account since it must be incorporated into BDA projections.
This level will be achieved in one more year, i.e. the end of 2011 (twice the 10% rate of 2010).
What is the likelihood that for 4 years (2008-2011) there will be no competition to BD? Nill, I'd guess.
BDA has just one chance to "force" the situation: make the studios stop releasing DVDs.
Diogen.
Talking about alternative (to optical discs) delivery methods of video content:
Microsoft at CES: Xbox getting IPTV, possibly Blu-ray
Sony to distribute content in DivX format
Panasonic and Sony announce Web 2.0 + HDTV mash-ups
Comcast at CES: 100Mbps connections coming this year
Diogen.
Microsoft at CES: Xbox getting IPTV, possibly Blu-ray
Sony to distribute content in DivX format
Panasonic and Sony announce Web 2.0 + HDTV mash-ups
Comcast at CES: 100Mbps connections coming this year
Diogen.
Another interesting announcement
MusicGiants launches VideoGiants, with HD movies from Paramount - Engadget
Horrendous price.
But the "highest quality or death" people should be pleased...
Interesting, that the "hard drive shipping" method was the one discussed on AVS by Mark Cuban (HDNet founder) some years ago.
Diogen.
MusicGiants launches VideoGiants, with HD movies from Paramount - Engadget
Horrendous price.
But the "highest quality or death" people should be pleased...
Interesting, that the "hard drive shipping" method was the one discussed on AVS by Mark Cuban (HDNet founder) some years ago.
Diogen.
You'll also never see the speeds of above 100Mbps until everybody upgrades their networks to Gigabit ethernet. Nearly every router on the market tops out at 100Mbps.
I have often said to my audiophile and videophile friends, until you get the walmart and target crowd to go along with the hd dvd it is not going to go anywhere.Most of that crowd is happy with their present players and the first run 15 dollar dvd's.Does anyone remember sacd and how much of a failure it was?
Bob, the Samsung Combo can be had for as low as $750. Sammy has also announced a BD-UP5500 due out in mid 2008 - it will be a combo sans on-board audio decoding, multi-channel analog output, and the REON HQV chipset for up-conversion of SD DVDS and will sell for around $600.
I'm one of the few who have gotten their hands on the BD-UP5000 $720 after discount), and with exception of a few (as with all HD DVD & Blu-ray players) bugs, the player is incredible! Samsung has stated that a firmware update will be released at the end of the month to fix some compatability issues.
Cheers,
Spence
Math Part III
Let's have a look at the first table from here
DVD Entertainment Group
what percent of the total movie purshases (DVD+VHS) was spent on DVDs.
We were told many times that the replacement of VHS by DVDs was a classic example of how a new format takes over an old one. From the table, it took 7 years to completely reverse the picture: DVDs were just 6% of customer spending in 1999 and 94% (leaving 6% to VHS) in 2005. This is the best case scenario for a new format aceptance "speed" - no format war, everybody sees huge improvements in picture/sound quality, no new TVs needed, no investment in new AVR/speakers needed, etc.
The year 1999 was the second year of DVD. Just like year 2007 was for high definition. And in terms of spending, it was 1% of the regular DVD spending: we are applying the same dynamics to the process of hidef (BD as of now) taking over DVD as DVD was taking over VHS. The last two columns (in red) show what percent of movies will be sold on BD (compared to regular DVDs) over the next few years.
As we established earlier, by 2010 BD will have about 10% of the movie market: same result, different approach.
Diogen.
Let's have a look at the first table from here
DVD Entertainment Group
The first three columns were taken from the linked document, the ratio was calculated:
what percent of the total movie purshases (DVD+VHS) was spent on DVDs.
We were told many times that the replacement of VHS by DVDs was a classic example of how a new format takes over an old one. From the table, it took 7 years to completely reverse the picture: DVDs were just 6% of customer spending in 1999 and 94% (leaving 6% to VHS) in 2005. This is the best case scenario for a new format aceptance "speed" - no format war, everybody sees huge improvements in picture/sound quality, no new TVs needed, no investment in new AVR/speakers needed, etc.
The year 1999 was the second year of DVD. Just like year 2007 was for high definition. And in terms of spending, it was 1% of the regular DVD spending: we are applying the same dynamics to the process of hidef (BD as of now) taking over DVD as DVD was taking over VHS. The last two columns (in red) show what percent of movies will be sold on BD (compared to regular DVDs) over the next few years.
As we established earlier, by 2010 BD will have about 10% of the movie market: same result, different approach.
Diogen.
