And me with my Samsung 1200. :up :up :up
I haven't found a BD title that it won't play. (yet)
Think Blu-ray has it easy in 2008? NPD says not so fast
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And me with my Samsung 1200. :up :up :up
I haven't found a BD title that it won't play. (yet)
Diogen, that's a heckuva stretch, and you know it. Like you said you didn't need a new HDTV to take advantage of DVD. I've always figured both formats would stay niche, until I saw Toshiba lower prices below $200. HDTV's barely have 30% penetration. Only 11% even have HD sources. The PS3 helps, but not enough.
As much as I hate the DRM of Blu-Ray, I'm sure the DRM of downloads will be much, much worse.
As much as I hate the DRM of Blu-Ray, I'm sure the DRM of downloads will be much, much worse.
Not quite sure I understood: you think the prognosis is too optimistic?
I think so, too.
I wanted to use the best case scenario from BD's perspective and see where it takes us.
The way it stands now, I don't see any reason why BD can be more than 10% of DVDs by 2010.
And that, I believe, is enough to claim BD will never become next DVD. By the time it has a reasonable shot at it, it will be killed by downloads.
Diogen.
The only way I see BD making huge strides (once of couse they have all the studios on board and all the players working) is to release BDs before DVDs. If BD came out earlier it would take over the market.
Diogen: That's one good post, and interesting projection on 10% & 2010. I'm not saying I agree, but it's a good starting point for trying to figure what might happen.
Right off, I'll say I doubt downloads will be so popular that they kill ownership. I view downloads as the rental model, not the ownership model. Perhaps rental will make inroads against ownership. But I doubt they will dominate over ownership. And we won't even see what high speed (> 10) broadband speeds and methods will take off in this country for another 5 years. BOPL? Maybe, but I doubt it. I expect consumers to be frustrated with relatively low PQ & AQ for (slow) HD downloads, and troublesome DRM. Cablecos will get things out fastest.
Blu-ray will not likely follow the same deployment pattern as DVD. They will offer extras. We can only begin to speculate on the extras. More than just PQ & AQ, because I agree with you that few will ever go to the trouble many forum members have, with fancy audio systems. Blu-ray HTIBs will address that, to some extent.
My guess as to things some studios may work toward doing over the next few years, to boost Blu-ray growth: Releasing on Blu-ray some period of time before on DVD. Maybe eventually simply not releasing certain titles on DVD (way down the line). More extras on BD than on DVD. 3D? Maybe. Control signals for "rumble seats" - I think that's coming out now (tiny market appeal?). Interactives, including shopping for items seen in movies (low appeal to me, perhaps more appealing to others- ask Toshiba). Online links ("Would you like to know more?") that might appeal more to younger viewers. Screen capture features in more advanced players? IM/VM with your buddies while watching the movie simultaneously in multiple locations? I'm sure there are MANY possibilities that few if any have thought of today, that they could use to beef up the appeal of Blu-ray over DVD. And maybe grow as fast as your table, perhaps more.
I do not expect Blu-ray to trounce DVD and replace it. I want (& expect) Blu-ray to become a major medium, perhaps outselling DVD one day, but not likely ever eliminating it. Plus remember, it will get cheaper and cheaper, eventually driving DVD only players off the market. And HDTV penetration will accelerate over the next 5 years.
Do I think Blu-ray is likely to be the last optical media in our lifetimes? Yes. Do I think it's beginning a good 10 year run, at least? Yes.
I'd like to say never underestimate Microsoft's ability to misjudge, screw up and alienate people. But gee, Sony seems to have great abilities to do that, too. Even though they have played their hand well this time around. Their "root kit" tendencies may well hold back the whole BDA.
Verizon? Are you kidding? Comcast will likely deploy faster. Fios is so slow to deploy it isn't even a blip on the radar screen.
Right off, I'll say I doubt downloads will be so popular that they kill ownership. I view downloads as the rental model, not the ownership model. Perhaps rental will make inroads against ownership. But I doubt they will dominate over ownership. And we won't even see what high speed (> 10) broadband speeds and methods will take off in this country for another 5 years. BOPL? Maybe, but I doubt it. I expect consumers to be frustrated with relatively low PQ & AQ for (slow) HD downloads, and troublesome DRM. Cablecos will get things out fastest.
Blu-ray will not likely follow the same deployment pattern as DVD. They will offer extras. We can only begin to speculate on the extras. More than just PQ & AQ, because I agree with you that few will ever go to the trouble many forum members have, with fancy audio systems. Blu-ray HTIBs will address that, to some extent.
My guess as to things some studios may work toward doing over the next few years, to boost Blu-ray growth: Releasing on Blu-ray some period of time before on DVD. Maybe eventually simply not releasing certain titles on DVD (way down the line). More extras on BD than on DVD. 3D? Maybe. Control signals for "rumble seats" - I think that's coming out now (tiny market appeal?). Interactives, including shopping for items seen in movies (low appeal to me, perhaps more appealing to others- ask Toshiba). Online links ("Would you like to know more?") that might appeal more to younger viewers. Screen capture features in more advanced players? IM/VM with your buddies while watching the movie simultaneously in multiple locations? I'm sure there are MANY possibilities that few if any have thought of today, that they could use to beef up the appeal of Blu-ray over DVD. And maybe grow as fast as your table, perhaps more.
I do not expect Blu-ray to trounce DVD and replace it. I want (& expect) Blu-ray to become a major medium, perhaps outselling DVD one day, but not likely ever eliminating it. Plus remember, it will get cheaper and cheaper, eventually driving DVD only players off the market. And HDTV penetration will accelerate over the next 5 years.
Do I think Blu-ray is likely to be the last optical media in our lifetimes? Yes. Do I think it's beginning a good 10 year run, at least? Yes.
I'd like to say never underestimate Microsoft's ability to misjudge, screw up and alienate people. But gee, Sony seems to have great abilities to do that, too.
Even though they have played their hand well this time around. Their "root kit" tendencies may well hold back the whole BDA.Verizon? Are you kidding? Comcast will likely deploy faster. Fios is so slow to deploy it isn't even a blip on the radar screen.
Not Kidding, Verizon FIOS is spreading all over NJ and it has a much bigger footprint then Comcast. Deployment is pretty brisk here, new towns are coming online all the time, and with up to 50meg fiber downloads already to many Jerseys towns I can see how hi def downloads can take off soon.
Who's going to pay $300 (street will likely be $200) for an Emerson or Sylvania profile 1.1 player? That is early-mid adopter territory. Most early mid-adopters don't want to pay that much for a no-name player that will be obsolete when BD Live comes into play this fall.
(Of course, I say this knowing well that people were jumping all over the Venturer HD-DVD player for $200 this past Christmas.)
(Of course, I say this knowing well that people were jumping all over the Venturer HD-DVD player for $200 this past Christmas.)
I hope they start that kind of intensive rollout here in VA. In Fairfax County, they are S-L-O-W to deploy. When offered to me, I'll dump my cable modem and get Fios voice and internet. But I'll keep Dish for TV.
"that crowd"? I shop there but yet I was one of the first owners of an HD-A1
Vurb, that was a terrible comeback. You should've mentioned how the Wal-Mart crowd went apeshit two weeks before Black Friday gobbling up $99 HD DVD players.
Honestly, I think Toshiba should go nuclear. If Universal and/or Paramount stay(s) exclusive, they need to release a major movie on combo or twin ONLY--no DVD. If the BDA can cheat the Nielsens during Transformers w/ a BOGO free, HD DVD can pump the numbers up with a combo only release.
They just shouldn't do it with Elizabeth: The Golden Age. The best movie to do this with is Bee Movie, then American Gangster.
Hard to believe, but there are some outlets calling themselves "Research" and claiming similar numbers:
Blu-ray Adoption Won’t Happen Until 2009, Research Finds - CE Pro Article
Certainly nothing like 50% by years end what Sony president claims...
Diogen.
