Volcanic Eruptions

[Foxbat]

Episode 55 should start in the next 72 hours.

Maybe any hour now.

 

[Foxbat]

Still pistoning with sparks and smoke between upwelling lava flows from the North vent:

 

[Foxbat]

Well, a watched caldera never erupts… Looks like Kīlauea has changed the rules again:

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[Foxbat]

Hopefully this will play, but play through YouTube if not:

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Apparently, there is a new vent (a fourth one) that may change the whole eruption dynamic and how much inflation is needed to trigger more fountaining.

 

[Foxbat]

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[meStevo]

6 vents have opened up since Monday.

Summit tilt and tremor began dropping slowly at about 5:00 p.m. HST coincident with the opening of vent 6. However, by 8:30 p.m. HST all of the new vents had stagnated as slow deflation of the summit continued. Glow continued from the north, south, and west vents throughout the night, but was obscured by heavy rainfall in the early morning. The small summit deflation continues but has slowed this morning. Tremor bursts began reappearing at about 9 p.m. HST last night and continue to be the dominant seismic signal. No anomalous seismic activity or deformation has occurred outside of the summit region.​

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View: https://youtube.com/shorts/1pPHJxG3F8c?si=fguB69-o2mZfo4L5

Kīlauea - Volcano Updates

The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory issues Volcano Updates for Kīlauea as activity warrants.

www.usgs.gov

 

[dishstaller]

The footage from Kilauea seems to be about the only thing you can find on YT anymore that isn't AI crap these days.

 

[navychop]

Now why do I suspect we'll see an AI generated big steaming pile of …….

Thanks for giving them the idea.

 

[meStevo]

View: https://youtu.be/oRe2SmNh4kQ

 

[Foxbat]

It looks like around 11:00 HST Wednesday that the north vent is actually producing an arced fountain, but whether this is actually "it" depends on the tilt meter.

But, even though this phase lasted for about an hour, it stopped and then started up again a few hours later.

The breakout that Shawn mentioned has appeared to have sealed up, so all lava exiting the north vent is from the top of the spatter cone. A little volcano inside of the Kīlauea volcano.

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[Foxbat]

Things looked interesting just before sunrise at the north vent:

 

[meStevo]

View: https://youtu.be/rporxPus_8A

 

[Foxbat]

Still waiting for Episode 56…

 

[meStevo]

Some wild inflation and significant uptick in earthquake activity in the caldera. Magma intrusion, could lead to new fissure(s). Or not.

Summary: A shallow intrusion of magma is occurring within the summit region near the existing eruption location in Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park.

Activity Summary: Earthquake activity has increased in the summit region of Kīlauea beneath Halemaʻumaʻu crater and the south caldera region. Ground deformation patterns recorded by summit tiltmeters suggest that magma is intruding beneath the ground in this area, in an east-west orientation, near the western or southern part of Halemaʻumaʻu crater.

Increased earthquake activity began this afternoon, September 30, 2026, at approximately 2 p.m. HST, underneath Halemaʻumaʻu. Since then, about 40 earthquakes have been detected and activity is still on-going. The largest event, so far, a magnitude 3.4 earthquake, occurred at 9:52 p.m. HST, 1.4 km (0.9 miles) beneath the surface in the northeast part of Halemaʻumaʻu. Starting around 8 p.m. HST., summit tiltmeters began to show extremely rapid changes consistent with crack growth in an east-west orientation possible near the current vent area, suggesting that magma is intruding in this region.

Historically, east-west trending fissures have erupted in the southeastern part of Halemaʻumaʻu and extending through the Keanakākoʻi crater area all the way to Chain of Craters Road near Lua Manu. The last east-west fissure in this area erupted in September 2023 and extended from the middle of Halemaʻumaʻu to the eastern wall just beneath the Keanakākoʻi overlook. An event of this type is also possible under current conditions.

Currently, there are no signs of a change at the surface as the existing eruptive vent complex in Halemaʻumaʻu, including the north and south vents, continue to intermittently spatter with strong glow and flames; however, conditions could change quickly. It is possible that this event ends without reaching the surface or it produces a fissure eruption in a new location within the summit caldera region.

 

[meStevo]

View: https://youtu.be/tv37YPVfHME


Gemini summary:

In this video from Shawn Willsey: Geology Explained, geology professor Shawn Willsey details rapid subsurface and surface changes at Kīlauea volcano in Hawaii:

• Signs of a Magma Intrusion (Dike): Summit tiltmeters recorded an unprecedented, rapid inflation spike of around 45 microradians [04:00 Opens in a new window ], accompanied by a dramatic surge of over 100 shallow earthquakes within 24 hours (peaking at a magnitude 3.4) [01:44 Opens in a new window ]. The deformation indicates that magma is intruding in an east-west orientation beneath the southern caldera/Halemaʻumaʻu region [01:16 Opens in a new window ].
  
  
• No Rift Zone Migration: Tilt and seismic data confirm magma is remaining confined to the summit area rather than traveling down the East Rift Zone [02:40 Opens in a new window ].
  
  
• Structural Pathways: Willsey notes that pre-existing faults and fractures expanded during the 2018 caldera collapse [08:32 Opens in a new window ]. Because these fracture zones remain unsealed, magma can move and mobilize toward the surface much faster than before [10:17 Opens in a new window ].
  
  
• Potential Outcomes: The intrusion could stall underground without erupting, or it could feed a new east-west fissure eruption inside the summit caldera, similar to the September 2023 event [02:47 Opens in a new window ].
  
  
• Shift to Dome Overflows: Webcam footage from overnight reveals repeated pulses of fluid lava overflowing the spatter cone at the North Vent [11:42 Opens in a new window ]. Occurring roughly every 20 to 50 minutes and lasting several minutes each [12:36 Opens in a new window ], these cyclic overflows suggest Kīlauea may be transitioning away from high-fountaining episodes toward regular surface overflows [14:54 Opens in a new window ].
  
  

 

[Foxbat]

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[meStevo]

View: https://youtu.be/G8BtlGRf3VY

 

[Foxbat]

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[Foxbat]

Oooo, quite the show now. All three vents have doming and overflows. The cone that built up around the North vent lost its upper quarter at 02:50 Oct 17 and is now spewing lava at a healthy rate. Don't know if I would say it's a fountain, but it's close.

edit: The USGS has called the official start of Episode 55 as starting at 03:19 HST Oct 17, 2026:

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Alert Level: WATCH, Color Code: ORANGE 2026-10-17 13:43:56 UTC
HVO/USGS Volcanic Activity Notice

Volcano: Kilauea (VNUM #332010)

Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

Issued: Saturday, October 17, 2026, 3:43 AM HST
Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Notice Number: 2026/H488
Location: N 19 deg 25 min W 155 deg 17 min
Elevation: 4091 ft (1247 m)
Area: Hawaii

Summary: Episode 55 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at 3:19 AM HST on October 17, 2026.

Volcanic Activity:
Episode 55 of lava fountaining in Halemaʻumaʻu began at the summit of Kīlauea began at 3:19 AM HST on October 17, 2026.

Fountain heights are relatively low at about 100-150 feet (30-45 m), and it is not clear whether this episode will evolve to the same heights as previous episodes. Continuous overflows from the vents began yesterday, October 16, just before 6 a.m. HST and transitioned into episode 55 fountains at 3:19 a.m. HST this morning. The current forecast is for winds are blowing from the north-northeast direction, which suggests that volcanic gas emissions and volcanic material may be distributed to the south-southwest direction from Halemaʻumaʻu.

• All eruptive vents and lava flows are confined to Halemaʻumaʻu crater within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park. Tephra fall from volcanic ash clouds is greatest within 3 miles (5 km) of the vents, lighter ash and Pele's Hair may stay suspended for large distances from the vents.