Weighing A Potential EchoStar-DirecTV Merger

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Not sure if anyone has discussed this yet as I haven't read through the entire thread, but this merger would become more likely if Dish/DirecTV agreed to give spectrum to another interested satellite party as a result. To those of you who say, whats the point of that? Well, a combined company would not need all those satellites to deliver television programming. The majority of what they have is duplicated anyway. They could "get by" with 101/110/119. I mean like 95% of the CORE content (ESPN, HBO, etc.) is all duplicated currently. With those three slots alone and a few additional spot beam satellites, they'd be able to sell the physical unused satellites to a new provider.
 
charper1 said:
The only difference I see now, is Voom is gone as a separate entity and now its News Corp wanting to buy out Dish Network as opposed to the other way around. Not that it changes much.
The big difference this time is that the prospective buyer is buddy buddy with the powers that be. These are the same powers that thwarted the sale of DirecTV to Echostar, so that their good friend could buy DirecTV in the first place.

So, it's a very different situation than the last time.
 
I always find it interesting when people, and the government, believe that a single satellite company would be a monopoly when the combined numbers of E* and D* represent around 15% of the subscription TV market.

Many people just don't see them as being in direct competition with cable, and now high speed internet providers. Yet that is DBS's primary competition. A pretty high percentage of DBS customers have other choices.

And for those who don't have another choice, well, the DBS companies still have to price their product to compete against cable in the urban areas, so the rural customers reap the same competition benefits.
 
Maybe this should not be as much about a monopoly as it should be how many choices are available to an individual. If the cable companies merge then that would not change the number of choices available to the consumer as you do not get a choice of cable company in the area. If the satellite companies merge then there is no choice of satellite companies. The difference in cable companies merging is it does not affect the number of choices as to if the satellite companies merge it does affect the number or choices, you go from three to two choices unless you have IPTV/FIOS also available in addition to cable in some of the markets.
 
I bet you if Dtv buys Dish, our 622 guides will all of the sudden get real slow and we will have to move to a crappy box from DTV.
 
Kudelski profitable even if loses EchoStar -paper

http://today.reuters.com/stocks/Quo...N&symbol=Dish&storyID=90044+19-Jul-2006+RTRS;

ZURICH, July 19 (Reuters) - Swiss digital TV technology firm Kudelski (KUD.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) would be profitable even if it lost its biggest client EchoStar (DISH.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Kudelski's chief financial officer was quoted as saying in a newspaper interview on Wednesday.

"We would definitely be profitable without EchoStar -- but of course at a lower level," Mauro Saladini told the Finanz und Wirtschaft newspaper.

Saladini said he had seen no signals that DirecTV (DTV.N: Quote, Profile, Research) would buy U.S. satellite TV provider EchoStar, a deal that analysts said would cost Kudelski its biggest customer.

"The loss of our biggest customer would be a harsh blow for us, there is no doubt about that. But we are much less dependent on EchoStar than we were three or four years ago," he said.

EchoStar's contribution to sales would be below 15 percent this year, he said, which was lower than in 2005.

Kudelski makes smart cards to unscramble digital TV broadcasts and supplies encryption software.

Kudelski stock fell 10 percent to a three-year low on Tuesday after the Los Angeles Times reported a deal between rivals DirecTV and EchoStar was on the cards.

The deal could mean Kudelski would lose EchoStar as a client, because U.S.-based DirecTV would provide EchoStar with rival technology provided by NDS Group, which also provides DirecTV's current digital technology platform.

Both DirecTV and NDS Group are controlled by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation Inc. (NWS.N: Quote, Profile, Research).
 
Tom Bombadil said:
I always find it interesting when people, and the government, believe that a single satellite company would be a monopoly when the combined numbers of E* and D* represent around 15% of the subscription TV market.
Then let's try this on for size:

1) Merging DirecTV and Dish Network would result in one DBS company; this makes the company a monopoly in the satellite-delivered television world.
2) The combined numbers for Dish Network and DirecTV would make the new company the largest multichannel vendor, yes even larger than Comcast.
3) The combined company would have much more than 15 percent of the multichannel market. More like 25 percent. DirecTV and Dish Network combined have about 28 million subs.
Tom Bombadil said:
Many people just don't see them as being in direct competition with cable, and now high speed internet providers. Yet that is DBS's primary competition. A pretty high percentage of DBS customers have other choices.
It doesn't matter if DBS's primary competition is cable. If they compete for subscribers amongst each other, you have a healthy market in the DBS world. That is what the FCC and FTC are afraid to touch.

So, until the companies can effectively merge yet spur competition in rural areas, we are still at the same crossroads we were in October, 2002.
 
I don't see us as being at the same crossroads as in Oct, 2002. It should be more evident to all, including the government, that this is a very competive marketplace and that it should not be seen with blinders on that this is about solely DBS.

Over the next 5-10 years, a large percentage of American homes are going to have the choice of DBS, cable, fiber, and DSL/phone lines. The only way that DBS is going to be successful will be to offer high value services.

I do not see any compelling reason why there has to be multiple DBS vendors in order to maintain competition in the market, excepting for rural subscribers. And unless the single DBS company would decide to entirely forego all urban markets in order to gouge the rural market, their prices and services will have to compete with several other providers. But as urban subscribers make up approximately 50% of all DBS subs, it is quite unlikely that a combined company would spur that market.

Plus, even many in the rural areas have access to cable and/or high-speed broadband, so they would risk losing a substantial share of that market if they jacked up prices.
 
Tom Bombadil said:
I don't see us as being at the same crossroads as in Oct, 2002. It should be more evident to all, including the government, that this is a very competive marketplace and that it should not be seen with blinders on that this is about solely DBS.
Oh, I agree. However, this is about the whole marketplace, and the segements which a merger would affect. Consolidating to one DBS player grants the company a defacto monopoly in rural areas not passed by cable.

Even the article you referenced makes mention of the competition:
Both [analyst Bruce Leichtman] and [Robert] Thalman agreed that EchoStar chairman Charlie Ergen’s most threatening rival is DirecTV, which News Corp. owns a 34% stake in. “Clearly, Charlie’s biggest competitor is Rupert,” Thalman said.
Their main competition is each other, and the separate companies are holding down some rates by competing with each other and cable.
 
I was in favor of the previous merger attempt. Now, I'd hate to see a merger. If such a merger somehow resulted in Charlie running the show, fine, I guess. But I don't trust Darth Murdoch and would hate to see him in charge. I'd have to go out back and start digging trenches to help Fios come to my neighborhood.
 
Sounds like E* might effect some what Direct does on broadband.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/columns/mermigas.jsp

CHICAGO -- News Corp.'s zealous embrace of interactivity soon will reach way beyond the runaway success of the social networking Web site MySpace when its majority-owned DirecTV decides on a path and partners for creating a national WiMax network.

Approval is imminent for the project that could take at least two years and $2 billion, providing News Corp. and DirecTV a valuable wireless interactive broadband loop with consumers to directly sell content, advertising, goods and services. WiMax is a wireless a broadband technology often referred to as "WiFi on steroids" with a much wider 30-mile range than the more limited access offered by WiFi services. WiMax, which is short for World Interoperability for Microwave Access, also promises to provide more security and speed than traditional wireless connections.

"If we can pull something off ... there is no reason why that shouldn't link in with everything," News Corp. chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch said in a recent interview. "I would expect to have wireless broadband advanced in at least two or three cities before the end of this year, and then it might take two or three years to build it out across the entire country," Murdoch said.

High-level sources say the unprecedented undertaking will involve strategic equity partners that bring WiMax spectrum, equipment and other expertise to the mix. In one of the most likely scenarios, News Corp. and DirecTV have been in advanced talks with Clearwire Corp., a WiMax venture of Craig McCaw, in which chipmaker Intel Corp. and equipment manufacturer Motorola Inc. recently invested $900 million.

McCaw has been amassing one of the largest stables of licensed radio spectrum to build his own national wireless WiMax network. Intel, which has a vested interest in the commercial success of WiMax, particularly for PC users, has been one of Clearwire's partners from the start.

As an alternative, DirecTV also has been exploring the possibility of partnering with other WiMax spectrum owners such as Mobile Satellite Ventures (MSV) or acquiring its own WiMax spectrum when such rights are auctioned off by the FCC on Aug. 9. In such cases, DirecTV would have to pull together, on its own, more of the elements needed to build its own WiMax network.

Clearwire, such leading cable operators and DirecTV rivals as Comcast and Time Warner and telcos like Sprint Nextel also are among the more than 250 companies that have filed with the federal government to bid in the auction of wireless spectrum.

Some sources say that EchoStar could join DirecTV in providing a united domestic satellite-backed WiMax alternative to cable and to telephone competitors such as Verizon, Cingular and Sprint Nextel. Sprint Nextel is working with a consortium of cable operators including Comcast and Time Warner to assist them with a much-needed wireless out-of-home extension.

The first fruits of that effort are expected this year or early in 2007, though skeptics say cable's preoccupation with the voice-over Internet Protocol addition to their service bundle and Sprint Nextel's preoccupation with its post-merger integration will likely make that a tepid event. While telephone companies continue to build out costly fiber-optic systems to homes to replicate cable's expensive digital broadband connections there, increasing amounts of content and commerce are moving to devices and platforms outside of the home.

It is that powerful, anywhere-anytime wireless connection that News Corp. aims to maintain with the core younger consumers of MySpace and its TV channels. In the process, News and DirecTV could leap ahead of many broadband distributors.

The construction of a national WiMax network would be another crowning achievement for Murdoch; Peter Chernin, News Corp.'s longtime president and chief operating officer; and Chase Carey, DirecTV president and CEO, and formerly News Corp. co-CEO. The well-regarded Carey will execute the ambitious WiMax project that will enable the dominant satellite provider, in which News Corp. has a 35% stake, to compete against cable and telephone rivals with a more interactive bundled offering.

"There are a number of options we're considering that could involve partnering with any number of equipment or technology companies. But I'm not going to handicap the players," Carey said in a recent interview. Carey has told analysts he prefers not to tap more than about $1 billion of DirecTV's $4 billion in cash reserves.

"There are a lot of moving parts, and when we have the right deal on the table, we'll do it. But in the short term, we will continue to provide our broadband services through the telcos," Carey said.

Sources say one of those moving parts could be closer ties with DirecTV's only domestic rival, EchoStar Communications, whose controlling chairman and CEO Charlie Ergen could consider selling as satellite's growth curve and ability to siphon subscribers from cable has plateaued. The lack of interactivity in the satellite-TV business model to compete with broadband data and wireless communications makes growth even more difficult.

A merger of the only major satellite players in the U.S. may not be as readily dismissed as it once was by federal regulators, given the increase in many areas of competition for service to the home and to consumers in general. News Corp. and DirecTV officials concede an argument -- and maybe even a deal -- can be made for merging with EchoStar, the notion for which could be advanced by any cooperative WiMax alliance.

Having its own interactive pathway to consumers in the U.S. would put News Corp. in an elite class of major content providers that also own their own broadband platform that now includes only Time Warner, which boasts the Time Warner Cable pipes and a wealth of production, distribution and archive assets.

While WiMax is not considered an ultimate distribution panacea, there are many enterprising ways in which such companies as DirecTV and News Corp. would use the interactive network to provide unique branded content, commerce and services directly to lucrative out-of-home platforms that include iPod-like video players, cell phones, PDAs, personal media players, cars and next-generation mobile devices.

That would put News Corp. on the front lines of creating the next forms of social networking, peer-to-peer sharing and new content forms. It also would give News Corp. the means to maximize its multibillion dollar investment in DirecTV while positioning the satellite provider to become a more dominant broadband player.

Having access to or owning its own domestic WiMax network through DirecTV also would strengthen links between News Corp.'s domestic media units and its global satellite operations -- including its 37% interest in BSkyB in the U.K. and its wholly owned StarTV in Asia and Sky Italia -- at a time when Fox-branded film and television content are helping to fuel growth markets like China and India.

That, in turn, would bolster McCaw's global WiMax expansion efforts in parts of the world such as Asia, India and Africa where WiMax can be quickly and inexpensively embraced in lieu of constructing expensive broadband infrastructure. Sources say Clearwire could provide a national WiMax network connection for as little as a $25 monthly fee, or less than half that of some existing wireless broadband services.

WiMax, which is short for World Interoperability for Microwave Access, also promises to provide more security and speed. McCaw, a cellular pioneer who sold his former company to AT&T a decade ago, has looked to Intel and Motorola to more than doubled the financial resources he planned to raised from going public with Clearwire, which he launched in 2003. That nearly $1 billion in funding is enough to deploy WiMax in several U.S. cities. Clearwire already provides WiMax service to several hundred cities in the U.S., Mexico, Ireland, Belgium and Denmark.

Financial, subscriber, content and other resources from DirecTV and News Corp. would be another huge plus for McCaw, whose Clearwire remains unprofitable and has only about 18,000 domestic subscribers. However, Clearwire's licenses eventually allow it to deploy fixed and portable WiMax services to as many as 90 million consumers in the U.S. That is the potential DirecTV and News would like to tap.

Such a WiMax venture would be indicative of the genius News Corp. and Murdoch have consistently demonstrated in responding to and using new technology to advance its content businesses. Rather than resisting the radical shift to consumer-controlled media, News Corp. is taking its cues and making its moves.

Virtually every segment of the media and entertainment industries is being reshaped by digital broadband interactivity, and the transfer of content, communications and commerce to and from mobile devices. Broadband households will more than double to 433 million, feeding the global market for mobile wireless devices. Digital and mobile content will account for 41% of the total growth through 2010 in online rental subscriptions and digital streaming in filmed entertainment, licensed digital downloads and mobile music, online and wireless video games, electronic books, and online casino gaming, according to PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

News Corp. wants to makes certain its television, film, game, news and social networking content get its share of the action. As the owner of the largest TV station group, as well as some of the most successful broadcast and cable program networks, News Corp. realizes it must secure its own digital broadband path to consumers as a means of bridging them all.

Such a WiMax venture would be indicative of the genius that Murdoch and News Corp. have consistently demonstrated in responding to and using new technology to advance its content businesses. Rather than resisting the radical shift to consumer-controlled digital media, News Corp. is taking its cues and making its moves.

WiMax isn't expected to have a major competitive impact for several years, or the time that it takes to install the necessary standardized towers and receiver boxes. Its adoption also will be facilitated by the availability of a WiMax card for installation in portable personal computers, which will be delivered later this year by Intel, which also will build in interchangeable WiMax and Wi-Fi technology onto its Centrino laptop chips.

"WiMax will indeed have a big global impact on consumers, enterprises, vendors and telecom operators by making high-speed wireless access cheap and mobile, but not until 2010 or later," Forrester analyst Charles Golvin said in a report. "WiMax is a very promising global standard in search of a killer application."

It would not be too surprising if News Corp. and DirecTV figure out a way to get there first.
 
Weighing A Potential EchoStar-DirecTV Merger
R.M. Schneiderman, 07.19.06, 4:09 PM ET

Citigroup upgraded shares of DISH Network provider, EchoStar Communications, to "buy" from "sell," following media speculation about the increasing possibility that the company could merge with rival DirecTV Group, according to a Wednesday report.

Research analyst Jason Bazinet said shares of the number two direct broadcast satellite TV provider have performed "reasonably well" in a difficult market since he downgraded the stock to "sell" in January.

"In large part, we believe the strength is due to investor enthusiasm for a potential merger between DirecTV and EchoStar ," said the analyst. "It is unclear whether a merger between EchoStar and DirecTV will be approved by the Department of Justice or the Federal Communications Commission," he said.

"Our change in rating does not reflect a change in our fundamental view. We're still bearish on DBS fundamentals," noted Bazinet. "However, in the intervening months -- between a potential merger announcement and the subsequent regulatory review -- EchoStar's shares could outperform."

The analyst added that by merging, the two companies could fight off mounting competitive threats and rely on merger synergies to bolster growth in cash flow.

The analyst raised the price target on EchoStar to $39 from $26.
 
kissthesky said:
Weighing A Potential EchoStar-DirecTV Merger
R.M. Schneiderman, 07.19.06, 4:09 PM ET

Citigroup upgraded shares of DISH Network provider, EchoStar Communications, to "buy" from "sell," following media speculation about the increasing possibility that the company could merge with rival DirecTV Group, according to a Wednesday report.

Research analyst Jason Bazinet said shares of the number two direct broadcast satellite TV provider have performed "reasonably well" in a difficult market since he downgraded the stock to "sell" in January.

"In large part, we believe the strength is due to investor enthusiasm for a potential merger between DirecTV and EchoStar ," said the analyst. "It is unclear whether a merger between EchoStar and DirecTV will be approved by the Department of Justice or the Federal Communications Commission," he said.

"Our change in rating does not reflect a change in our fundamental view. We're still bearish on DBS fundamentals," noted Bazinet. "However, in the intervening months -- between a potential merger announcement and the subsequent regulatory review -- EchoStar's shares could outperform."

The analyst added that by merging, the two companies could fight off mounting competitive threats and rely on merger synergies to bolster growth in cash flow.

The analyst raised the price target on EchoStar to $39 from $26.

As long as my stock keeps going up, I'm happy!
 
This just gets more interesting by the minute. McCaw was basically the grandfather of the modern US cellular industry and when sold his company to what was AT&T Wireless ( now Cingular ), he dove into this WiMax thing.
The stars are aligning for this merger to take place, Ergen will just watch his stock price keep going up and finally sell and make his ka-billions of dollars....
 
Merger Rumors

Look everyone seems to feel if this happens there gonna be doom and gloom, I feel if this happens and I don't think it will happen it will not be bad for consumers, more channels for us hopefully any way and why would they raise the prices if they do they will only lose to cable companies. All we can do is wait and ride this rollercoaster for awhile...:)
 
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http://www.forbes.com/2006/07/19/directv-echostar-0719markets18.html?partner=yahootix

Citigroup upgraded shares of DISH Network provider, EchoStar Communications, to "buy" from "sell," following media speculation about the increasing possibility that the company could merge with rival DirecTV Group, according to a Wednesday report.

Research analyst Jason Bazinet said shares of the number two direct broadcast satellite TV provider have performed "reasonably well" in a difficult market since he downgraded the stock to "sell" in January.

"In large part, we believe the strength is due to investor enthusiasm for a potential merger between DirecTV (nyse: DTV - news - people ) and EchoStar (nasdaq: DISH - news - people )," said the analyst. "It is unclear whether a merger between EchoStar and DirecTV will be approved by the Department of Justice or the Federal Communications Commission," he said.

"Our change in rating does not reflect a change in our fundamental view. We're still bearish on DBS fundamentals," noted Bazinet. "However, in the intervening months -- between a potential merger announcement and the subsequent regulatory review -- EchoStar's shares could outperform."

The analyst added that by merging, the two companies could fight off mounting competitive threats and rely on merger synergies to bolster growth in cash flow.

The analyst raised the price target on EchoStar to $39 from $26.
 
EchoStar stock upgraded amid merger rumors

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/060719/1317826.html?.v=1

Shares of EchoStar Communications Corp. were upgraded to "buy" from "sell" by Citigroup because of the expectation the satellite TV provider will merge with its rival DirecTV Group Inc.
Englewood-based EchoStar (NASDAQ: DISH - News) attempted to purchase El Segundo, Calif.-based DirecTV (NYSE: DTV - News) three years ago in a deal that was thwarted by federal regulators concerned about antitrust laws.

But News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch, who controls DirecTV, has demonstrated renewed interest in EchoStar, which has 12 million subscribers nationwide through its Dish Network.

During a media conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, last week, EchoStar CEO Charlie Ergen said that a DirecTV-EchoStar union could save $3 billion in expenses a year.

At the same conference, DirecTV chief Chase Carey said the regulatory environment has changed since EchoStar's ill-fated bid to buy DirecTV.

Carey noted that Comcast and Time Warner hold most of the nation's cable markets while telecommunications giants such as AT&T and Qwest are flirting with the TV business as well.

Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet wrote on Wednesday that the merger bodes well for investors.

EchoStar shares set a new 52-week high on Wednesday. Share rose $1.21 to $33.08.