I had predicted that AT&T TV would be the first streaming cable TV service to carry PBS. And we'll see, it may still be given that's it's supposed to soft-launch in several pilot markets in August before launching everywhere in the fall. I bet that PBS has already inked a deal with AT&T but they couldn't announce it today given that AT&T TV has yet to launch and details are still being kept under wraps.
I had predicted that YouTube TV would land PBS (and C-SPAN) but not until early next year. Once again, things seem to be moving a bit faster than I had predicted. I also think in the coming months (I had also predicted it for 1Q 2020) that we'll see YouTube TV add a few of those critical cable networks they're still missing: A&E, History, Lifetime, Hallmark, and Magnolia (which will take over the channel now called DIY, which YouTube TV doesn't carry). Beyond that, I expect YouTube TV will offer an optional add-on tier of additional sports channels that they don't have in their main package, stuff like NFL Network, NHL TV, etc. I also expect YouTube TV to begin offering select live and on-demand content in 4K and 4K HDR, just as Fubo TV does. In other words, YouTube TV is evolving into a full-blown direct replacement for traditional cable/satellite TV.
Not coincidentally, Verizon has begun offering to bundle YouTube TV in with their own broadband and wireless services. And they just submitted their own device, called Stream TV, which I'm betting is an Android TV streamer with a UI and remote custom-designed for use with YouTube TV. By 2021, Verizon FiOS TV will be killed off.
In fact, most or all traditional cable TV services will die in the next few years. Broadband operators other than AT&T and Comcast will just partner up with one or more third-party streaming service and offer them (often with a custom-designed streaming box/stick and remote) as an optional bundle with their broadband service. Here's what "cable TV" will be in 2022:
- AT&T TV
- X1 TV (Comcast will take their Xfinity cable TV service OTT nationwide by end of next year.)
- YouTube TV
- Hulu with Live TV
- Amazon Prime Video Live Channels (which Amazon will either create from scratch or, more likely IMO, create out of PS Vue which they'll buy from Sony)
- CBS All Access with Live TV (after CBS has folded in content/channels from Viacom and probably others -- Lionsgate/Starz? AMC Networks? A+E Networks?)
Sling will still be around but it'll languish unless DISH gets serious about it and decides to do more than just compete at the low-end with $25 super-skinny bundles without locals. That's Sling's niche right now and the only reason for it to exist. And frankly, DISH has much bigger things to worry about right now, like building a new 5G network from scratch.
But all those other traditional cable TV services? Charter Spectrum TV, Verizon FiOS TV, Cox Contour TV, Altice TV, Frontier Vantage TV, etc. -- they'll all either get shut down completely or deprecated to being a small-to-medium sized set of traditional QAM cable channels (probably just in SD) that takes up relatively little bandwidth on their operators' systems.