BD titanic taking on water?

[vurbano]

Best buy is basically now giving away a BD movie if you buy 3 via a 25 dollar gift card. I guess the movies just arent moving.
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?type=category&id=pcmcat101700050012

 

[teamerickson]

That's a shame.

 

[landlocked]

I'm in the HD camp, but don't see this as being a biggie. They cannot afford to discount the players, so why not reduce the profit margin on the media?

 

[navychop]

Some of the smoke will clear in January, when (hopefully) we may see some some holiday sales results.

Sales to date for both players are insignificant compared to sales a year or 2 from now. The question is, will Sony be able to recover and produce a product with at least 2 layers, and perhaps better compression, and have enough value added to overcome the early HD-DVD lead? Sony's strength is in (potential) higher capacity. Will the touted coating protect the shallower etchings? I await the 3 year old test and its results. Let your 3 year old play with it and see if it still plays.

I used to think we'd have some sort of reasonable indication of the winner in first quarter 2007. Now I suspect it will be longer. Anyone thinking it's already over is indulging in fantasy. Either could still win. Or maybe Swan is right and they'll unite in 2007 with a single standard. Not where I'd place my bet.

 

[T2k]

That's anything but solid - if problems reach a tipping point and studios, manufacturer start deserting from BDA camp then it can decide this battle very fast and forever.

 

[JoeSp]

T2k, you keep saying the same thing over and over. No one yet has deserted the BR camp. Yet here you are, spouted the same thing. You see, untill November when all the studios in the BR camp start putting out titles and most of the player manufacturers have their units out for sale then the consumer will purchase the unit that has the titles on it they want to watch.

If then, after all that hits the market BR still is not selling then you might start to see defections but that dust will not settle till next spring or summer.

Oh, BTW, Walmart is dropping both BR and HDDVD support. I spoke to a local manager who stated that neither format had enough support for Walmart to continue support. This could end up being the future for both formats.

 

[jgantert]

Well Walmart's support is horrible. None of the local Walmarts (4 within a few minutes drive) carry either format. It's idiotic to think Walmart customers will be the same customers buying HD movies.

People buying 33 cent cans of Allen's brand vegetables (like me) don't usually buy $20+ DVDs (also like me).

Target's roll out of HD movies may have the same fate if they don't carry them at a majority of the stores.

-John

 

[navychop]

These players are not really down to the Wal-Mart level yet, IMHO. Maybe after a year or three, but not for first year release.

I was in a warehouse club type store this weekend. No players of either type. LOT'S of flat screen TVs, dozens. All up front. And in the back of this section, on a dark shelf, were 7 CRT TVs. All less than $300. Looks like close out time already.

 

[seandudley]

Walmart drove me away themselves. If they would have carried a decent selection, and if they would have gotten new titles timely, then I would buy a lot of them at Walmart. When every trip turns into the fact that Walmart won't have the new title for weeks if at all, what's the point? I just get all of mine from Amazon now, but if Walmart had stepped up to the plate, I would have been getting them there instead. Is it any wonder they aren't selling them well when they do everything they can do ensure they won't?

 

[T2k]

T2k, you keep saying the same thing over and over. No one yet has deserted the BR camp. Yet here you are, spouted the same thing. You see, untill November when all the studios in the BR camp start putting out titles and most of the player manufacturers have their units out for sale then the consumer will purchase the unit that has the titles on it they want to watch.

Yeah and pigs can fly, I know.

Too many times we heard this "by XXX (put any 3rd month of the last 18 months) we'll release this and that" story from Blu-Ray - and they don't even have a working player on the market in 2006 October, ROFL!

If then, after all that hits the market BR still is not selling then you might start to see defections but that dust will not settle till next spring or summer.

FYI: Toshiba already said they will be at 200,000 units sold by the end of this year - which means they have probably sold at least 60-70k already...

Oh, BTW, Walmart is dropping both BR and HDDVD support. I spoke to a local manager who stated that neither format had enough support for Walmart to continue support. This could end up being the future for both formats.

Since when Walmart, the most disgusting corporation of America, ever mattered when it came to HD? Don't be silly - Walmart is not the type of place HD-fan folks will go to shop anyway...

 

[teamerickson]

Since when Walmart, the most disgusting corporation of America, ever mattered when it came to HD? Don't be silly - Walmart is not the type of place HD-fan folks will go to shop anyway...

Ah, T2K I always love your rants. But I have to disagree with that statement. If the largest retailer in the world is pushing a product, it matters. Maybe not today, but when things go mainstream having their support would be huge.

 

[JoeSp]

Yeah, and on November the 18th there will be exactly 400,000 BluRay players SOLD -- fully functional with HDMI -- not on the store shelve. Numbers are very deceiving! The PS3 by itself could sell 6 times as many players as Toshiba will produce in this country alone by the end of the year. And I am willing to bet that there will not be one PS3 on a retail shelf anywhere in the US on December 31. You can not say that about the Toshiba HD-DVD drives.

If it is a numbers game, by December those sale thru numbers for both players and movies will start moving decidedly towards BluRay. New BluRay titles since VC-1 and MPEG4 started being used are getting the same reviews as their HD-DVD counterparts (when the movie is sold in both formats). So the numbers game will really start this XMAS. I guess you can hope Sony stops producing PS3s. That is the only way HD-DVD is going to hold any lead before XMAS. After that it will become the numbers game. Same thing happened last time with VHS and Betamax. The numbers were on VHS's side and that is the format that won. And it was definately not the supperior product at the time. In a numbers game, if you build more, and sell more, and there are more titles for it, eventually you will have the lion's share of the market. That is how business is down -- and a supperior product does not always mean numbers.

 

[teamerickson]

Joesp,
Your assuming all the game console people will use that for HD content. I don't think they will. With stand alone units the HD DVD is still a better value.

 

[jgantert]

Joe, I think you're being overly optimistic about the attach rate of BR and PS3. I'm still not convienced how many movie watchers are going to take the time to find & buy a PS3 for BR.

-John

 

[williamkmurphy]

Yeah the kids aren't going to want to give up the console for the parents to watch a movie. And the parents aren't goign to want to dedicate their home theater room to the console.

So basically the majority of the people that will use a ps3 for their primary BD player are going to be males 16-30 without kids.

 

[navychop]

Let's see. The family has a PS3 hooked to the HDTV already, for the kids. In that case, no problem to buy or rent a BD movie. And if they like it, they later move on to buying a dedicated BD player.

Granted, that will be a small percentage of families that do that. But a small percentage of a huge number of PS3s out there. Of course, if the PS3 is hooked up to an SDTV, no point in watching a BD movie on it at all.

Any ideas on what percent of PS3 players would be connected to an HDTV for game playing?

 

[T2k]

Of course, if the PS3 is hooked up to an SDTV, no point in watching a BD movie on it at all.

Which is almost nothing compared to the unknown percentage of 8-10 million 360 owners who decide to buy the dirt cheap HD-DVD upgrade - and those are high quality, solid HD-DVD customers because they had a choice not to buy it.

With only 400.000 units Sony has no chance to compete.

 

[vurbano]

Joesp,
Your assuming all the game console people will use that for HD content. I don't think they will. With stand alone units the HD DVD is still a better value.

He is also neglecting the 360 HD DVD drive. EVERY one of those will be playing HD DVD's. There is NO guarantee that ANY of the PS3's will be used to play BD movies other than the freebie that comes with it. There is also no guarantee that any of the PS3's will be connected to HDTV's yet every 360 HD DVD drive will be.

 

[JoeSp]

You guys are all daydreaming. There will be the same % of PS3s' hooked up to a HDTV as the XBOX360 -- and I am guessing the % will be higher because of the BluRay. And given that out of 8 major studios there are only two who will be supporting HD-DVD and no one is going anywhere for at least a year or two how do you see the thru put for the 360 HD-DVD as putting a dent in the PS3. No digital output except thru VGA. No High Definition sound. No HDMI. I am willing to bet that there will be fewer than 5% of new 360 owners who buy one because of the HD-DVD. In the PS3 the BluRay is already there! And you think folks who have spent thousands of dollars on their HDTVs and sound systems are going to buy a 360 HD-DVD player that is severely limited? ---PLEASE!!

 

[vurbano]

You guys are all daydreaming. There will be the same % of PS3s' hooked up to a HDTV as the XBOX360 -- and I am guessing the % will be higher because of the BluRay. And given that out of 8 major studios there are only two who will be supporting HD-DVD and no one is going anywhere for at least a year or two how do you see the thru put for the 360 HD-DVD as putting a dent in the PS3. No digital output except thru VGA. No High Definition sound. No HDMI. I am willing to bet that there will be fewer than 5% of new 360 owners who buy one because of the HD-DVD. In the PS3 the BluRay is already there! And you think folks who have spent thousands of dollars on their HDTVs and sound systems are going to buy a 360 HD-DVD player that is severely limited? ---PLEASE!!

If we are dreaming then you must be on an acid trip.

1. The majority of HDTV gamers have probably already caved in and bought a 360. And those interested in movies will spend the $199 on the HD DVD drive, the remote and king kong. 8 to 10 MILLION 360 owners. say that slowly 10 times. 8 to 10 MILLION!

2. PS3 HD gamers do not translate directly into HD movie watchers. That is HORRIBLE assumption you are basing your arguements on. The majority of PS3 owners probably will buy it just because they are loyal PS2 owners and will not even own an HDTV yet. IMO it will be a tiny drop in the bucket that actually buy a PS3 and own an HDTV and want to watch BD movies. Its a real last gasp "hail mary" by sony and its the reason their BD/PS3 guy got fired.

3. Gamers dont really care about TrueHD sound quality and probably dont even know what it is. Gamers play games.