Warner to join Paramount in going HD DVD only?

[navychop]

If they come out with 200GB Blu-ray discs, I expect I will continue to be able to store more discs in less space than the equivalent external HDD. And it will likely have a longer lifespan, and certainly be more durable. Now, they've demonstrated the ability to produce a prototype. They need to actually produce them, drop the price, and increase the speed. Three years from now, they may have 8x drives, for all we know.

I currently plan to replace our server in 2009. That could easily slip to 2010. I will be looking carefully at any Blu-ray backup solution that may be on the market. We currently use DLT (80 GB native). So by then, a 200GB solution will likely be about the right size - maybe 100% overkill to allow for data growth over the years.

The half inch cartridges we use are bulky. I gather they are more heat sensitive than any disc is likely to be. Sure, I can use a portable external HDD for backup. But I also have to carry it back and forth EVERY DAY. Not practical for any HDD. We are talking offsite storage here. This is the situation many small businesses are in. Our offsite storage/backup is at another office or home, not a data warehouse or mountain.

There are other factors besides speed and cost. Yes, I'd like a burner that would be faster than my tape drive. It doesn't have to be as fast as an external HDD. Cost must be reasonable, not the cheapest.

 

[Peter Parker]

Any news from WB?

 

[BobMurdoch]

Boy, this whole thing is just getting messy. Paramount goes exclusive and Nickerson, pro HD-DVD guy at neutral Warner, suddenly wants to pursue other interests. I believe Nickerson prefers neutrality because he sees the ability right now to make money from both sides even though he personally prefers HD-DVD(for what reason, I can't fathom).

.

Here's a few.....

1. HD DVDs are cheaper to manufacture.....

2. They are easier to create (Blu Ray needs several lines of code to do the simplest function, while HD DVD only needs a few lines with their interactivity code)

3. There is no region coding, so they can produce copies and distribute them anywhere (OK, this is more of a consumer friendly item, not manufacturer friendly)

4. They can charge more for the Combo discs (as much as I would prefer they were cheaper, the increased utility makes it worth the cost to me)

1 and 2 are the main reasons.....

 

[JoeSp]

Here's a few.....

1. HD DVDs are cheaper to manufacture.....

Show me the proof Bob I don't believe you.

2. They are easier to create (Blu Ray needs several lines of code to do the simplest function, while HD DVD only needs a few lines with their interactivity code)

Once again -- show me the proof -- several lines to a few lines what are we talking about here 2 lines to 4 50 to 100?

3. There is no region coding, so they can produce copies and distribute them anywhere (OK, this is more of a consumer friendly item, not manufacturer friendly)

Show me proof that no regional coding makes studios more money. You do not have the space on a HD-DVD disc to put multiple languages in HD so where are they making more money?

4. They can charge more for the Combo discs (as much as I would prefer they were cheaper, the increased utility makes it worth the cost to me)

Show me where a Combo disc is what everyone wants? Most folks don't even care about the Combo disc -- especially the HD-DVD crowd -- or else those combos would rank in the highest discs sold on the format. Do they?

1 and 2 are the main reasons.....[/QUOTE]

One and two is simply FUD. Nobody has yet proven that right now at this time in space that HD-DVD is cheaper or easier to do then BD. Especially with those Combo discs you love so much.

If what you say is true why is it I can always buy the same movie (if out on both formats) on BD cheaper then HD-DVD---always. Even at the Walmart the same movie in BD is cheaper then HD-DVD. Your reasons have too many holes in them. These arguments were last year's and they currently do not hold water.

 

[BobMurdoch]

Just to whet your appetite,... here are the cheap HD DVD chinese players you asked about.....

Venturer announces SHD7000 low-cost HD DVD player for holidays - Engadget HD

A surprising stat from Variety.com....

But HD DVD backers say the two-to-one ratio shows that Blu-ray's huge advantage in players isn't translating into disc sales. Warren Lieberfarb, who consults for HD DVD backer Toshiba, noted that there are more than 1.5 million Blu-ray players in the U.S. -- most of them PlayStation 3s -- and fewer than 200,000 HD DVD players. "That ratio should be something like 8 to 1," he argued.


A comparison of pros and cons of each....

Ohhmylord Update: Blu-Ray Vs HD DVD Comparison

and an answer to your request for the "cheaper to manufacture" quote...

Paramount and Dreamworks Animation Side with HD DVD — Audioholics Home Theater Reviews and News

"The announcement concluded with more pro-HD DVD hype trying to push that format over its rival. Meanwhile consumers are stuck with two formats which are ultimately the same in terms of quality and features. The only real differences at this point are that one enjoys wider studio support and has higher hardware costs and the other enjoys cheaper manufacturing costs but has less studio support."

Also.....

The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) has long asserted that its Blu-ray (BD) format is superior to the rival HD DVD format, and BD’s "revolutionary" buzz has understandably caught the fancy of certain technologists. But CEOs should be wary, because what the BDA does not sufficiently address is what lies behind those assertions. The numbers are stark: manufacturing BD discs will require an estimated US$1.7 million cost per manufacturing line. Per line!
Then, each major manufacturing facility would require the implementation of a minimum of two mastering systems, at a minimum cost of US$2 million per system. DVD, at the height of its success, resulted in an estimated 600 manufacturing lines globally. Even allowing for a decline in systems costs over time as the manufacturing base expanded, the tab for radically overhauling the media manufacturing industry would approach a billion dollars worldwide or more. Already-beleaguered CFOs will be challenged to raise—and risk—this significant amount of capital.
Compare this to the estimated cost of retooling for the HD DVD format compared to BD. HD DVD is able to utilize virtually the entire existing manufacturing infrastructure. The cost of upgrading an existing DVD line is about US$150,000—less than a tenth the cost of a BD line. A DVD mastering system can be upgraded for US$145,000. Basically, HD DVD is a DVD-9—a version of DVD we have enormous manufacturing experience with already—with a denser pit structure.
Once people realize the hidden costs of the Blu-ray format, they will also realize the extent to which it actually endangers their very industry.
Blu-ray is the Emperor’s New Clothes—it advances the agendas of a few select companies instead of the markets and that of the consumer. No one—the studios, the disc manufacturers, the consumer electronics manufacturers—can afford a format war today.

Rick Marquardt, former GM, Warner Advanced Media Operations,

From Ars Technica​

In answer to your challenge of the coding difficulty statement I made....

from: PC World - Paramount's CTO on Why His Studio Is Dumping Blu-ray

PCW: From your first-hand experiences, what can you tell us about the difference in programming languages between HD DVD, which uses Microsoft's HDi technology, and Blu-ray, which uses BD-Java?
Bell: BD-Java is a programming language. The benefit is that it's very flexible. The drawback is that you may need 100 lines of BD-Java code. HDi is a relatively compact piece of code; one command can cover quite a bit of interactivity.
BD-Java is also more complex, so the possibility of errors is greater. And when BD players are put out, [there's the question of whether] they all support the scenarios as coded up from the low level. [Some of the early problems with BD-Java discs] were in part due to the complexity that BD-Java brings. From our point of view, HDi offers all of the flexibility we need, in practice, and it does so in a more simplified way and in a way that we feel leads to better compatibility, better reliability, and lower costs.
PCW: Up until now, how have you approached coding your discs for HDi and BD-Java?
Bell: At this particular point in time, we've been able to supply more features with HDi and HD DVD than with BD-Java and Blu-ray Disc. What we have typically done in practice is that we've created the interactive scenarios in HD DVD and then tried to pull them into Blu-ray. But that has not been entirely possible: Some things we can do in HDi are not supported in BD-Java. If you're going to do BD-Java, you need someone who's capable of programming at a low level. With HDi, you don't need somebody with that additional level of training. We don't need programmers to code our discs.

3. As for the No Regional coding..... it just means that one manufacturing run could feed the disks for the US and the UK in theory.... although the exterior packaging would probably need to be changed to reflect market needs..... Guilty as charged, as I fessed up... this one is more for consumers than manufacturers..... But I love to keep bringing it up....

4. Combo discs may not be what everyone wants..... but it's what many want..... I've bought a few disks I was on the fence about because I could play it on my HD DVD player as well as the DVD player in my wife's explorer (for kids titles) or my father's DVD player who borrows titles from me occasionally....

How'd I do? And YES all the articles are current.....

In closing.....

"Why would a studio chose the format that only had 32% of their high-def business? Bell says it was a technical decision they made after they had a year of development experience. “When you look at what the DVD Forum has specified as required, it’s a good set of . You can be assured that that benefit will be available to all consumers, no matter what [player] model they purchased. That speaks to the DVD Forum, that it published specs that were complete and market-ready, and that it didn’t need to publish up [and change the specs], as Blu-ray has. To some degree, [such changes are] going to create some legacy issues.”

Mr. Bell makes a case very similar to that expressed by Universal Studios President Craig Kornblau. Interactivity on HD DVD is more mature than BD-, and the Toshiba players are cheaper than the Blu-ray offerings. He cited a few other reasons including “manufacturability, the reliability of players, the cost, the that’s developed to support our creation of titles.”

 

[diogen]

...Your reasons have too many holes in them.

Geeez...
Talking about pot calling the kettle black.
At least those are debatable reasons, not like bending time and space you do most of the time...
But hey, don't stop, it's at least good entertainment, better than some of the BD movies...

Diogen.

 

[berck]

The only problem with the Rick Marquardt quote is that those cost issues haven't been visible at all. Blu-ray discs and HD-DVD are basically all the same cost. The replication costs don't bare this out at all either.

 

[teachsac]

If what you say is true why is it I can always buy the same movie (if out on both formats) on BD cheaper then HD-DVD---always. Even at the Walmart the same movie in BD is cheaper then HD-DVD. Your reasons have too many holes in them. These arguments were last year's and they currently do not hold water.

Hmmm..... If the movie is released in the same way on both formats, they have been the same price or HDDVD is lower. Examples: Amazon and DVD Empire

Blood Diamond: $19.99 for both @ Amazon; $23.19 BD and $20.19 HDDVD @ DVDEmpire
Shooter: $27.95 Amazon $29.19 DVD Empire

The only time I've paid a couple dollars more for the HDDVD than the BD is when the HDDVD is released in Dual Format. Then everything's not equal. 2 formats for a little more than 1.

S~

 

[diogen]

...Blu-ray discs and HD-DVD are basically all the same cost.

You mean price. BD is actually often cheaper.
There is not much in common between those two: cost and price. Cost is what we (i.e. consumers) hardly ever know; price is set at the level market will accept.

Since almost 100% of the HD players is manufactured by Toshiba, they bear the cost (subsidized or not) of it. From some insiders (PacificDisk, etc.) on AVS we know that replicating HD is cheaper than BD (and BD50 is in a separate category by itself), hence releasing movies in HD makes more profit for the studio per disc. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out that even with the 2:1 advantage in the number of discs sold, neutral studious make more money from HD releases (after Sony's subsidy in discs production/replication is removed). Could it be that Paramount left BD because of that?

Diogen.

 

[John Kotches]

2. They are easier to create (Blu Ray needs several lines of code to do the simplest function, while HD DVD only needs a few lines with their interactivity code)

Once again -- show me the proof -- several lines to a few lines what are we talking about here 2 lines to 4 50 to 100?

We keep telling you this for the simple reason that it is fact. With big thanks to the person that wrote this code and displayed it on AVS; Jeff Williams. It's for a simple pop up animation from off screen to onscreen during playback.


The lines of code count is:

HDi: 46
BD-J: 147

The more lines of code; the more you have to test; and the more you have to debug. If these are handled with software engineering discipline; it's going through 2-3 layers of testing. It's not just the guy writing the code; it's the people testing the code too. All of it; every bit of it costs more.

This was a simple example and it is > 3:1 ratio. It can be worse. The argument can be made that some of the BD-J can be simplified by defining and reusing classes. True; but that takes time and debugging effort too. In the end they are part of the code tree that makes up the delivered product. TANSTAAFL.


The HDi code is split into three segments. The manifest is a wrapper which is the equivalent of a macro. The markup defines the characteristics for the animation and the script runs the animation.

Manifest

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<Application xmlns="http://www.dvdforum.org/2005/HDDVDVideo/Manifest">
    <Region x="0" y="0" width="1920" height="1080" />
    <Script src="file:///dvddisc/ADV_OBJ/code.aca/code.js" />
    <Markup src="file:///dvddisc/ADV_OBJ/code.aca/code.xmu" />
    <Resource src="file:///dvddisc/ADV_OBJ/code.aca" />
</Application>

Markup

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<root xml:lang="en"
	xmlns="http://www.dvdforum.org/2005/ihd"
	xmlns:style="http://www.dvdforum.org/2005/ihd#style"
	xmlns:state="http://www.dvdforum.org/2005/ihd#state">
<head/>
<body>
	<div id="Menu" style:position="absolute"
		    style:x="0px"
		    style:y="1080px"
		    style:width="1920px"
		    style:height="144px"
		    style:displayAlign="center"
		    style:backgroundImage="url( 'menu.png' )"
		    style:opacity="1.0"
		    style:display="auto">
	</div>
</body>
</root>

script

function Animate()
{
	document.Menu.style.animateProperty("y","1080px;936px",1.0);
}
function handleKeyDown(evt)
{
	switch(evt.key)
	{
		case 0xCE:
			Animate();
			break;
		default:
			return;
	}
}
function initialize()
{
	addEventListener("controller_key_down",handleKeyDown,false);
}
setMarkupLoadedHandler(initialize);

BD-j is one lump of code.

BDj:

package com.bdj.code;

import java.awt.AlphaComposite;
import java.awt.Color;
import java.awt.Graphics2D;
import java.awt.Image;
import java.awt.MediaTracker;
import java.awt.Toolkit;
import java.awt.event.KeyEvent;
import java.awt.event.KeyListener;
import java.io.IOException;
import javax.media.Manager;
import javax.media.MediaLocator;
import javax.media.NoPlayerException;
import javax.media.Player;
import javax.tv.service.selection.ServiceContext;
import javax.tv.service.selection.ServiceContextException;
import javax.tv.service.selection.ServiceContextFactory;
import javax.tv.xlet.Xlet;
import javax.tv.xlet.XletContext;
import javax.tv.xlet.XletStateChangeException;
import org.bluray.media.InvalidPlayListException;
import org.bluray.ui.event.HRcEvent;
import org.havi.ui.HGraphicsDevice;
import org.havi.ui.HScene;
import org.havi.ui.HSceneFactory;
import org.havi.ui.HScreen;

public class ExampleCode implements Xlet, KeyListener {
	
	private static Player player = null;
	private static MediaTracker tracker;
	private static Image menuImage, buffer;
	private static HScene hscene = null;
	private static Graphics2D graphics, bufferGraphics;

	public void initXlet(XletContext xletcontext) throws XletStateChangeException
	{
		try
		{
			ServiceContextFactory servicecontextfactory = ServiceContextFactory.getInstance();
			ServiceContext servicecontext = servicecontextfactory.getServiceContext(xletcontext);
			javax.tv.service.selection.ServiceContentHandler playerservicecontenthandler[] = servicecontext.getServiceContentHandlers();
			for(int i = 0; i < playerservicecontenthandler.length; i++)
			{
				if(playerservicecontenthandler[i] instanceof Player)
					player = (Player)playerservicecontenthandler[i];
	   		}
		}
		catch (SecurityException e) {} 
		catch (ServiceContextException e) {}
	}

	public void startXlet() throws XletStateChangeException
	{
		try
		{
			initInterface();
			
			menuImage = Toolkit.getDefaultToolkit().createImage("http://www.satelliteguys.us/images/menu.png");
			tracker = new MediaTracker(hscene);
			tracker.addImage(menuImage, 0);
			tracker.waitForAll();
			
			MediaLocator medialocator = new MediaLocator("bd://PLAYLIST:00000");
			player = Manager.createPlayer(medialocator);
			player.start();
			
			hscene.addKeyListener(this);
			hscene.requestFocus();
		}
		catch (InterruptedException e) {}
		catch (NoPlayerException e) {}
		catch (InvalidPlayListException e) {}
		catch (IOException e) {}
	}
	
	public void pauseXlet() {}

	public void destroyXlet(boolean arg0) throws XletStateChangeException
	{
		if (player != null)
		{
			player.stop();
			player.deallocate();
			player.close();
		}
	}

	public void keyTyped(KeyEvent arg0) {}

	public void keyPressed(KeyEvent key)
	{
		int code = key.getKeyCode();
		switch (code) {
	      	case HRcEvent.VK_POPUP_MENU :
	      		Animate();
	      		break;
	      	default:
	      		return;
	    }			
	}

	public void keyReleased(KeyEvent arg0) {}
	
	public static void initInterface()
	{
		HSceneFactory sceneFactory = HSceneFactory.getInstance();
		HScreen screen = HScreen.getDefaultHScreen();
		HGraphicsDevice graphicsDevice = screen.getDefaultHGraphicsDevice();
		    
		hscene = sceneFactory.getFullScreenScene(graphicsDevice);
		hscene.setBackground(new Color(0, 0, 0, 0));
		hscene.setBounds(hscene.getBounds());
		hscene.setVisible(true);
		    
		graphics = (Graphics2D)hscene.getGraphics();
		graphics.setComposite(AlphaComposite.Src);
		graphics.clipRect(0,936,1920,1080);
	        
		buffer = hscene.createImage(1920,288);
		bufferGraphics = (Graphics2D)buffer.getGraphics();
		bufferGraphics.setComposite(AlphaComposite.SrcOver);
		bufferGraphics.setClip(0,0,1920,288);
	}
	
	public static void Animate()
	{
		for(int i=0, m=12; i<12; i+=1, m+=12)
		{
			bufferGraphics.clearRect(0,0,1920,144);
			bufferGraphics.drawImage(menuImage,0,144-m,1920,288-m,0,0,1920,144,null);
			graphics.drawImage(buffer,0,936,null);
			Toolkit.getDefaultToolkit().sync();
			AnimateWait();
		}
	}
	
	private static void AnimateWait()
	{
		try
		{
			Thread.sleep(83);
		}
		catch (InterruptedException e){}
	}
}

 

[John Kotches]

The only problem with the Rick Marquardt quote is that those cost issues haven't been visible at all. Blu-ray discs and HD-DVD are basically all the same cost. The replication costs don't bare this out at all either.

This is really tangential to the discussion. The retail cost vs the cost to manufacture are different animals. Remember that Paramount's goal is to profit at the wholesale level. What happens on the street really isn't under Paramount's control.

 

[berck]

This is really tangential to the discussion. The retail cost vs the cost to manufacture are different animals. Remember that Paramount's goal is to profit at the wholesale level. What happens on the street really isn't under Paramount's control.

That maybe true, but it still doesn't explain why the replicating cost don't bare it out either. So, based on the evidence, it would appear that the Blu-ray cost are most like not 10x of the HD-DVD.

 

[berck]

You mean price. BD is actually often cheaper.
There is not much in common between those two: cost and price. Cost is what we (i.e. consumers) hardly ever know; price is set at the level market will accept.

Since almost 100% of the HD players is manufactured by Toshiba, they bear the cost (subsidized or not) of it. From some insiders (PacificDisk, etc.) on AVS we know that replicating HD is cheaper than BD (and BD50 is in a separate category by itself), hence releasing movies in HD makes more profit for the studio per disc. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out that even with the 2:1 advantage in the number of discs sold, neutral studious make more money from HD releases (after Sony's subsidy in discs production/replication is removed). Could it be that Paramount left BD because of that?

Diogen.

Ok price, its still a cost to the cosumer.

Again, replicating cost are slightly higher for BD, but not 10x. I suspect that Paramount left more for the kick back than the profit margin between the cost of HD-DVD and Blu-ray. Otherwise, why did they get the kick back?

 

[diogen]

...I suspect that Paramount left more for the kick back...

I have no doubts the "incentives" given to Paramount by the HD org were the deal breaker.
The question is what was the trigger for Paramount to start looking for the "highest bidder".

Penton Man (insider) is saying Paramount decision wasn't out of the blue for those in the know,
they saw it coming and there was nothing that could have been done.
So, what is the difference between Paramount and Warner outside the "religion"?

Expiration of Sony's caps on discs manufacturing would be the first candidate, IMHO.
Although there are about 8 BD discs facilities, only two of them can make BD50 with some reasonable yeilds, others have those numbers in the 10% range.
And Paramount with its 11% of the BD movie market wasn't exactly thrilled when facing the costs of discs production it had foot itself
(with BD50 they were probably last in line).

Diogen.

 

[meStevo]

This would be fun to watch as a TV movie or something in a few years when things are more settled.

Kinda like 'The Late Shift' about the Leno and Letterman stuff when they were competing for The Tonight Show.

 

[navychop]

Sparse code is not always easier to debug. Consider higher level languages such as COBOL versus C. Of course, it would be unlikely that you would have a task where these 2 would be equal candidates for the job, outside of academia. But the idea that smaller written code is always better is not absolutely true.

Surely programming support tools will be developed to greatly simplify the java coding process, if the BD market continues to grow. A matter of time. But iHD certainly has the near term advantage. From the references, I gather that over the long haul, BD-J might have the advantage. However, I'm sure iHD can be expanded if need be.

We have moved from an increasingly one-sided competition to a more nearly level one, potentially. If Warner flips to HD DVD exclusivity, then it's about as even as can be, or so I read. Then other factors enter. I wouldn't count on the better HD DVD players carrying the day, because that is not likely to last but for a few more months, certainly less than a year. And I daresay most potential buyers care only about seeing the movie, not the games or interactive extras. And over the long run, cost differences will not be significant, over tens and later hundreds of millions of discs per year.

No, it will matter to folks that they need X player for Y movie. That means studio choice. The region free idea appeals to us as consumers, of course, but it is anathema to some studios. And studios pick distribution formats (or sell such rights). Even more important, I posit, is DRM. We don't like it, but obviously the paranoid studios do not want their product, their rice bowl, distributed without royalties to them. Hence the appeal of BD+.

Same as before, if Disney crosses over to HD DVD anytime in say, the next year, I'd say it's over, in favor of HD DVD. But it's not likely. BD+ would probably have to be a complete failure.

If pirated HD DVD movies on the internet and back alleys start to seriously impact studio earnings, and that doesn't happen to the same degree to the Blu-ray exclusive studios, you'll see less in HD DVD and more in Blu-ray. THAT'S where follow the money comes in, more than cheaper players.

It is surely possible to create a DRM system that would be exceedingly difficult and expensive to break, removing such possibility from the script kiddies and small groups. It could become so expensive to crack a DRM that only very well funded criminal organizations or "rogue nations" would attempt it, if even them. The question is- will anybody pay the freight to develop and deploy such a system? Will BD+ be another inadequately funded attempt? They only need a few years of protection, for the most part, and that is likely achievable.

Nations develop "unbreakable" (for a number of years) codes but are dependent (for the most part) upon a cooperative recipient, one that will not disclose the keys. That difference is crucial in understanding the difference for disc players. I suspect in the future we will see more of the security reside in hardware and less in software.

 

[BobMurdoch]

This would be fun to watch as a TV movie or something in a few years when things are more settled.

Kinda like 'The Late Shift' about the Leno and Letterman stuff when they were competing for The Tonight Show.

I like it.... the G4 Movie of the Week! Get me Morgan Webb on the phone, tell her I've got a proposal to pitch....

Oh, and get me the VP of development for them too.... I want to pitch the movie idea to him/her....

 

[JoeSp]

John, HDi is pretty well fleshed out. They have for the last year been condensing the code and making HDi easier to work with. BD-Java on the other hand is just now coming to the market (in October) and I am sure there will be some working to condense code and complete a more fleshed out toolkit to use with BD-Java. Since there has only been very limited use of BD-Java (primarily in the menu systems only -- the Pirate movies) the potential of BD-Java has not yet been reached, discussed nor shown. By this XMAS there will be several movies out (especially from Disney) that begin to show what can be done with BD-Java. I am sure that this will be as easy to use for the consumer as HDi is.

As for the actual progamming -- if it comes to bear that BD-Java can do more things then HDI then it becomes worth it to the studio. If BD-Java can only do what HDi does then establishing a toolkit and writing code to a stricter and more condensed pattern becomes important.

Either way I tend to believe that no matter what the price of the movies or the price of the players it is what movies on which format that will get someone interested in buying a particular format. If dual format players that are fully fuctioning for both formats comes out under $500 then that might just be the ticket for new customers. But we have yet to see a dual-format player support all the features of both formats. And even the new ones announced don't list all the features of both formats so we are still in a wait and see mode.


A side note: There is always talk of the cost of setting up and manufacturing HD-DVD vs BD. Since HD-DVD is built upon the DVD platform it should be cheaper to set up and produce. As BD is a brand new format the start-up cost should be considerably higher. But if BD continues to sell well the the costs of production will come down and the price of pressing a disc will decrease. The reason I meantion this is that with new technology the startup cost is always very expensive and if that technolgy is well received the costs begin to drop quickly and predictably after the first year. Just look at the cost of blueray lasers right now compared to the same time last year. They are 1/10th the cost -- simple supply and demand working here. In another year or two neither format will be much less to produce then the other. Same thing is going to happen with the players. In the time span of the so-called 18 months that Paramount and Dreamworks is HD-DVD exclusive all the cost differances between the two formats will be nil. At that time it will be what I have always said -- what title on which player.

The format with the most wanted titles will be the leader and for me that right now is BD. If no other studio changes are made then this is how I see it playing out. Any more change in studio support (either way) and the direction of the wind just might change.

 

[John Kotches]

Joe:

Learn these words; it's quite often the case for you:

You were wrong. Just be a man and admit it.


I keep on hearing about Blu-ray and everything always seems to be coming at some time in the future. Contrast that with HD-DVD which has been shipping these features for oh, give or take, about 18 months.

 

[John Kotches]

Sparse code is not always easier to debug. Consider higher level languages such as COBOL versus C. Of course, it would be unlikely that you would have a task where these 2 would be equal candidates for the job, outside of academia. But the idea that smaller written code is always better is not absolutely true.

Is anyone still coding in Cobol? Yeah, but I know you're laughing with me.

Surely programming support tools will be developed to greatly simplify the java coding process, if the BD market continues to grow. A matter of time. But iHD certainly has the near term advantage. From the references, I gather that over the long haul, BD-J might have the advantage. However, I'm sure iHD can be expanded if need be.

You too are guilty of speaking in futures instead of today. That's nice; but it doesn't get the job done today.

We have moved from an increasingly one-sided competition to a more nearly level one, potentially. If Warner flips to HD DVD exclusivity, then it's about as even as can be, or so I read.

Then we're back where we started with near parity for titles with two significant defections from neutrality.

Then other factors enter. I wouldn't count on the better HD DVD players carrying the day, because that is not likely to last but for a few more months, certainly less than a year.

Oops, I didn't mention Samsung's defection from stricly Blu to supporting both cover colors. That's significant from a hardware standpoint. Weren't they the first with a Blu-ray player you could actually buy?

And I daresay most potential buyers care only about seeing the movie, not the games or interactive extras. And over the long run, cost differences will not be significant, over tens and later hundreds of millions of discs per year.

This assumes a growth rate similar to DVD -- not a "gimme" IMO.

No, it will matter to folks that they need X player for Y movie. That means studio choice.

Except for the fact that the universals are starting to show up. This means you buy one player to play whatever you want. Sound familiar? Yep; that's what happened with SA-CD and DVD-Audio.

With so much core componetry in common on the infrastructure side (think Codecs here) it actually isn't too terribly expensive to do.

The region free idea appeals to us as consumers, of course, but it is anathema to some studios. And studios pick distribution formats (or sell such rights).

We are of course free to vote with our wallets and buy whatever we want. So if we prefer region free titles; that's a possibility.

Even more important, I posit, is DRM. We don't like it, but obviously the paranoid studios do not want their product, their rice bowl, distributed without royalties to them. Hence the appeal of BD+.

Define "distributed". Is it distribution if I rip the disc as an iso or files and play it back on multiple networked devices? Is this still fair use?

Mandatory Managed copy keeps casual piracy at bay. It takes a lot more than that to stop commercial pirates.

Same as before, if Disney crosses over to HD DVD anytime in say, the next year, I'd say it's over, in favor of HD DVD. But it's not likely. BD+ would probably have to be a complete failure.

And if it is hacked in 2-3 months after release is that considered a complete failure?

If pirated HD DVD movies on the internet and back alleys start to seriously impact studio earnings, and that doesn't happen to the same degree to the Blu-ray exclusive studios, you'll see less in HD DVD and more in Blu-ray.

It is impractical at this time -- when we're talking 25-30GB+ downloads.

By the way; AACS is cracked for Blu-ray too -- until BD+ kicks in it is just as exposed.

THAT'S where follow the money comes in, more than cheaper players.

I believe that the content providers should be paid; but has piracy really impacted their revenue as much as is claimed?

It is surely possible to create a DRM system that would be exceedingly difficult and expensive to break, removing such possibility from the script kiddies and small groups.

It depends on who the small groups are. Very smart people working in groups can accomplish quite a bit.

It could become so expensive to crack a DRM that only very well funded criminal organizations or "rogue nations" would attempt it, if even them.

I don't know; CPU horsepower is getting dramatically cheaper each year -- and we know have Quad Core CPUs retailing < $300. Wouldn't be too expensive to set up a farm of them to do a brute force hack.

But it is likely that this won't be a brute force hack; as AACS and CSS weren't brute force hacks.

The question is- will anybody pay the freight to develop and deploy such a system? Will BD+ be another inadequately funded attempt? They only need a few years of protection, for the most part, and that is likely achievable.

See previous.

Nations develop "unbreakable" (for a number of years) codes but are dependent (for the most part) upon a cooperative recipient, one that will not disclose the keys.

These cryptosystems that you speak of are dramatically more complex than what is being deployed as AACS. This isn't an apples to apples comparison.

That difference is crucial in understanding the difference for disc players. I suspect in the future we will see more of the security reside in hardware and less in software.

Perhaps. BD+ is middle ground. I am very leery if some of the reported capabilities of BD+ are true. I hope they are not.