Debunking the Format "War" Myth #1

CochiseGuy

SatelliteGuys Pro
Original poster
Feb 6, 2006
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Cochise County, Arizona
IMHO, the Number One Myth spun around in this format "war" is that "For High-Def Optical Media to survive, there has to be only one format". Or, spun another way: "The format war creates consumer confusion, and reluctance to buy either until there is one clear winner!"

This of course the rallying cry of Blu-ray - who conveniently feels that since they currently have a little more studio support, considerably more CE company support, and a current 61/39% (since inception) lead in the 1% of DVD sales HD currently enjoys - they are the logical choice and HD DVD should do us all a favor just die already. And one of their main cheerleaders is Bill Hunt of The Digital Bits, who claims to not really care which format wins - but for the reasons above, Blu-ray is the logical choice.

While I own both an HD DVD player and a PS3 for Blu-ray, I have always preferred and supported HD DVD for many reasons. I also believe both formats can and will survive, and does not create any meaningful consumer confusion. But, what about this #1 Myth that the vast majority of consumer aren't buying either Blu-ray or HD DVD until this format "war" is over and there is a clear winner?

In this week's Sept. 2-8 Home Media Magazine (available online for free at Nxtbook) there is an article on Page 1 entitled "Forget about the Format War - Indifference Reigns". It's about a research study conducted by Warner Home Video. The study, representing more than 1,000 consumers, found that 48% of respondents were indifferent to buying either Blu-ray or HD DVD movies Also, 31% cited prices as barrier to entry, and only 21% mentioned competing formats as significant challenges.

That's only 1 out of 5 of all consumers are hesitant to buy a Hig-Def player because of the "format war". Almost half of all consumers couldn't care less about either one of them - they're apparently perfectly happy watching VHS or standard DVD, or re-runs of "I Love Lucy" Nickelodeon.

OK, but what about owners of HDTV's - surely they give a gosh darn about this format war being over so they can rush right out and buy a HD player? Guess again.
Among consumers with an HDTV, 58% said they had no need for an HD player; 46% said prices were too high and 23% said they lacked enough information about either format to make an informed purchase. Twenty-seven percent said they would wait out the format war for a clear winner. The survey found that regarding HD player pricing, "purchase positive" consumers were willing to pay slight more ($239) than "non-positive" consumers at $166.

It's even worse! Almost 6 out of 10 owners who already have an HDTV don't feel any need for either Blu-ray or HD DVD. They're apparently perfectly happy watching HBO, Showtime or HD Movie Net in HD from the cable or satellite TV company. Almost half think that if they were going to buy an HD player, current prices are too dang high! Only slightly more than one quarter of them are those folks waiting for a "clear winner" in the highly touted format war. :eek:

So much for the #1 myth that the majority of consumers are waiting for this format war to be over before buying one. Well over half don't see a need for a high-def player. Almost half have some interest, but think prices are too high to justify a purchase. But a $166 High-Def player does seem to be the sweet spot, even for those not really all that interested.

But, the Blu-ray group doesn't seem to be in any hurry to get there. The same article quotes Andy Parsons, spokesperson for the Blu-ray Disc Association. Parsons said high-def packaged media remains in the "early-adopter phase", and questioned why HD DVD has been aggressively cutting the prices of its players. "You don't see people heading down to Best Buy because there is a cheap player available," he said. "They go down because they want to see high-def content. That's when you want to have price reductions."

Well, with Chinese HD DVD players hitting stores this holiday season with a $199 MSRP, I guess we'll find out who's right. ;)
 
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"You don't see people heading down to Best Buy because there is a cheap player available," he said. "They go down because they want to see high-def content. That's when you want to have price reductions."
The ancient chicken-or-egg question:
do cheap players trigger the format's appeal or it has to follow events that made the format appealing?

Diogen.
 
ONLY 1 in 5? ONLY 1 in 5? That is 20% of your potential customer base? Tell me, if in any other business you could increase the potential customer base for a particular product catagory by 20% wouldn't they jump at it?

Competing formats are one of two reasons I haven't bought an HD (generic term) DVD player. I don't give three hoots about the format. I just want to know that I won't end up with the latest "Laser Disc" or "8-track" player! (I have both if you want one :))

I went through the VHS/Beta war. I don't want to relive that.

See ya
Tony
 
ONLY 1 in 5? ONLY 1 in 5? That is 20% of your potential customer base? Tell me, if in any other business you could increase the potential customer base for a particular product catagory by 20% wouldn't they jump at it?

Competing formats are one of two reasons I haven't bought an HD (generic term) DVD player. I don't give three hoots about the format. I just want to know that I won't end up with the latest "Laser Disc" or "8-track" player! (I have both if you want one :))

I went through the VHS/Beta war. I don't want to relive that.

See ya
Tony

Any format you choose will be lucky to have a 20 year life
 
That argument will not sway people like me that do not want to pick the "wrong" format. "We" just want to be able to buy a movie without worrying if it's the correct one.

I have seen the death of vinyl (you can still buy new vynil) and reel to reel; the entire life cycle of compact cassette, 8 track, mini-disk, laser disk, VHS (you can still buy new VHS), Beta, Alpha (¾" U-Matic tape from Quasar), and I'm sure a few others I can't think of.

The difference between all of those and the current HD DVD/Blue Ray war is the matter of exclusivity to one format or another. There was never a time when an artist's label withheld a "record" from Vynil, Cassette or 8-Track distribution. All were available to all formats. The market quickly chose what would survice.

I do not remember (though I could be wrong) any movie that was available on Beta that wasn't on VHS or vice-versa until Beta's market share was so small that movie companies no longer found it profitable to print Beta versions.

This is the problem with HD DVD/Blue Ray. Since a movie comany owns one of them and the other is fighting fire with fire the exclusive crap turns off many potential buyers ESPECIALLY when it comes to the entry level price. When all movies are available in one format, that is when I will jump in and no sooner. One in 5 people seem to think the same way according to the survey. NOT an insignificant number.

See ya
Tony
 
Tony,-

Are you price sensitive?
Assuming BD won and is still selling the first Samsung for $1000.
All movies that are released, are released in Blu-ray.
Would you buy it?

Diogen.
 
No. $1000 for a player is ridiculous! I have a hard time paying more than $50 for a regular DVD player.

Am I a cheap tight wad? Nope. I have some very nice expensive equipment. I just will not buy something when the future of the entire technology is in doubt any more. :)

See ya
Tony
 
Here is what I was trying to say:
If just watching any available hidef movie (without running the risk to have the wrong player) is the ultimate goal,
we might get there as fast - or faster - by having a format war that will drive the prices down faster
and being able to buy 2 players for less than 1, if there would be no war.

If by this Xmas you will be able to buy both players - BD and HD - for $100 each,
would you refuse to do that just because one of them might become a door stopper?
If yes, what about them being $50 each?

Diogen.
 
I just can't seem to make my point. I do not want two more players for formats that are not sure to be around in two years! I, and many like me will buy ONE player for something that is significantly better than what "we" have now for a LITTLE more than what "we" pay now. At first early adopters will pay the price. But when there are two competing formats even early adopters will pause. Economics of scale never have a chance to drive prices down. Competing formats is not necessarily bad. Competing formats when movies would be exclusive to one format or another is BAAAAAD for business mostly for the movie industry which makes a TON of money on media sales!

See ya
Tony
 
No. $1000 for a player is ridiculous! I have a hard time paying more than $50 for a regular DVD player.

Am I a cheap tight wad? Nope. I have some very nice expensive equipment. I just will not buy something when the future of the entire technology is in doubt any more. :)

See ya
Tony
What nice DVD player do you have for under 50 bucks?
 
Yes, survival of any high def media is more in doubt now than it was a month ago. Makes entry into the game more risky. I don't want to be one of those guys in a Laserdisc club, or the next version thereof.
 
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The Beta .vs. VHS war came down to the movie rental stores not wanting to stock two different formats. They didn't want to deal with explaining why a particular title wasn't available in one format or the other. After you've explained to a couple hundred customers that they rented the wrong format, you begin to understand why there can be only one. I'm thinking that the established ability for HD DVD and DVD to coexist on the same disc has got to be a major selling point for the rental houses and retail establishments.
 
That argument will not sway people like me that do not want to pick the "wrong" format. "We" just want to be able to buy a movie without worrying if it's the correct one.

I do not remember (though I could be wrong) any movie that was available on Beta that wasn't on VHS or vice-versa until Beta's market share was so small that movie companies no longer found it profitable to print Beta versions.

See ya
Tony

Tony,

The ONE format war that did limit which studios movies you could rent or buy over the other format was DIVX and DVD.

Before DVD took over the Rental and Movie distribution to consumers from VHS there were two Competing formats for the Optical Disc format; DIXV and DVD.

DIVX was the loser and many got stuck with DIVX players.

John
 
At least the Divx players could play DVDs.

Blu-ray discs could just as easily have a DVD copy on the other side. I believe this was developed, but never utilized, probably due to cost/confusion factors.
 
What nice DVD player do you have for under 50 bucks?

Well, let's see here:

No Name for $19.99 with every feature the $150 players have. Buy three in case the first two are bad and you still spent half.
Coby Super Slim Progressive Scan DVD Player hhgregg.com

Want a brand name? How about a Sony with component output for $60
Sony Progressive Scan Single-Disc DVD Player (Black) hhgregg.com

How about another no-name with every feature a $200 player has INCLUDING HDMI output and 1080i scaling for $35?
Spectron IQ with HDMI Digital Output (Video Upscaling Up to 1080i) hhgregg.com

That took 10 seconds to find. I'm sure if I looked a little harder I could find a few dozen players that fit the bill. I am currently using a CyberHome $10 DVD player with component output and coaxial DD. Looks and sound as good as any other DVD player out there for 20 times the price!

But we digress. I would be willing to pay $200-$300 for a high def (generic term) DVD player if I knew that the format was going to stick around longer than Beta, 8-tracks and DiVX. :D

That is not going to happen until there is a clear "winner".

Again the difference between this war and the previous wars is availability of titles and the movie industry picking sides and making exclusive deals.

See ya
Tony
 
Tony,

The ONE format war that did limit which studios movies you could rent or buy over the other format was DIVX and DVD.

Before DVD took over the Rental and Movie distribution to consumers from VHS there were two Competing formats for the Optical Disc format; DIXV and DVD.

DIVX was the loser and many got stuck with DIVX players.

John

John, If I remeber this correctly, DiVX came well after the DVD was established. DiVX never stood a chance and the only reason it hung around as long as it did was because Circuit City was pushing the hell out of it to unsuspecting customers. But that is just the way I remember it.

I also forgot to add to the litany of competing formats, LD had the RCA video disk competing too. The video disk sold more because the players were CHEAP! But it died after most people realized it was a POS technology.

See ya
Tony
 
But we digress. I would be willing to pay $200-$300 for a high def (generic term) DVD player if I knew that the format was going to stick around longer than Beta, 8-tracks and DiVX. :D

That is not going to happen until there is a clear "winner".

Again the difference between this war and the previous wars is availability of titles and the movie industry picking sides and making exclusive deals.

See ya
Tony

Tony,

Life's short. You probably drop two bills in a month going out to eat with the wife and kids. Toshiba A-2 can be had for a little over $200.00 with 8 free movies. With today's technology advancements, every format will eventually be yesterday's betamax. Besides no matter how the format war pans out, the HD-DVD player is an awesome upconverter of standard DVDs and will continue to play HD-DVDs after the format war is decided (if ever).

You owe it to your HDTV to give it every HD signal that's available.;)
 
Well, let's see here:

No Name for $19.99 with every feature the $150 players have. Buy three in case the first two are bad and you still spent half.
Coby Super Slim Progressive Scan DVD Player hhgregg.com

Want a brand name? How about a Sony with component output for $60
Sony Progressive Scan Single-Disc DVD Player (Black) hhgregg.com

How about another no-name with every feature a $200 player has INCLUDING HDMI output and 1080i scaling for $35?
Spectron IQ with HDMI Digital Output (Video Upscaling Up to 1080i) hhgregg.com

That took 10 seconds to find. I'm sure if I looked a little harder I could find a few dozen players that fit the bill. I am currently using a CyberHome $10 DVD player with component output and coaxial DD. Looks and sound as good as any other DVD player out there for 20 times the price!

But we digress. I would be willing to pay $200-$300 for a high def (generic term) DVD player if I knew that the format was going to stick around longer than Beta, 8-tracks and DiVX. :D

That is not going to happen until there is a clear "winner".

Again the difference between this war and the previous wars is availability of titles and the movie industry picking sides and making exclusive deals.

See ya
Tony
You have named 2 under 50 dollars and I would consider them crap, IMO Colby and cyberhome? :haha
 
To each their own. They play DVDs. They look as good as any unit that costs up to 20 times as much and they sound great. If they don't last as long, I can buy an new unit and still have spend 1/10th the amount a name brand (some of which just take the same cheap player and stick a brand plate on them and jack up the price 10x).

I know no matter what I put down you will think it's crap, but here:
Magnavox for $29
Magnavox Compact DVD Player, DP100MW8 - Wal-Mart

Phillips up-convert DVD $44
Philips Upconvert DVD Player with DivX, DVP3960/37 - Wal-Mart

Magnavox up-convert DVD $37
Magnavox Progressive Scan DVD Player w/ DivX, MWD7006 - Wal-Mart

Magnavox progressive scan DVD $45

Toshiba Progressive Scan DVD $48
Buy the Toshiba Progressive Scan DVD Player (S-D4000) and other DVD Players at circuitcity.com

Phillips DVD $35
Buy the Philips DVD Player (DVP3140/37) and other DVD Players at circuitcity.com

Zenith Upconvert DVD $50
Buy the Zenith Upconversion DVD Player (DVB712) and other DVD Players at circuitcity.com

Toshiba Progressive Scan DVD $50
Target : Toshiba Progressive Scan DVD Player - SD4000

Apex DVD/DiVX/MP3 and everything else you can think of player $35
Target : Apex DVD/DivX/CD/MP3/Kodak PCD Player - AD1250X

Digital Labs DVD w/HDMI out $50
Target : Digital Labs HDMI UPConvert DVD Player - DL675-HD

Memorex DVD $40
Target : Memorex DVD Player - MVD2042

Ooo... a PINK DVD player $37
Target : NextPlay Fashion DVD Player - Pink (NP625PP)

TruTech DVD Player $30
Target : TruTech® DVD Player - Silver (TT320)

Magnavox DVD Player $45
Target : Magnavox DVD Player - MDV460

Memorex Progresive Scan DVD $ 35
Memorex 1-disc DVD Player with MP3 Decoder/Progressive Scan Output - Model MVD2040 at Sears.com

Phillips 1080i up-convert DVD $50
Philips 1080i DVD Player - Model DVP3960 at Sears.com

Sylvania DVD $32
Buy.com - Sylvania DVL-245G DVD Player - dvl-245g

Toshiba Progressive Scan $46
Buy.com - Toshiba SD-4000 - Progressive Scan DVD Player - SD4000

Phillips Progressive Scan DVD/DiVX $50
Buy.com - Philips USA DVP5140 Ultra Slim Dual Format Progressive Scan DVD/DiVx Player - DVP5140/37

The Sonys were just over the threshhold most of the time by $10 or so at around the 60 mark in these store. It took 2 minutes to find these.

See ya
Tony
 

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